Topic: 2016 hottest July ever!?

[PaulMy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/hottest-month-july-2016-1.3722783?cmp=rss

but my station does not support that with July 2012, 2011 and 2010 all being a higher average!
2016  22.3°C
2015  20.7
2014  19.4
2013  21.8
2012  23.1
2011  23.7
2010  22.5
2009  18.8
Average for those 8 years 21.5°C

Paul

[Jáchym]

yes, but this is even more scary:

NOAA has figured there have been 14 monthly heat records broken in a row, before July.

[blizzardof78]

It IS the hottest July ever, IF you take into the mix the 66% of automated stations reporting data daily, hourly, that are in wrong locations to accurately measure such things, like TEMPERATURES! THAT is the reason the NWS or NOAA is not advising those locations to move their temperature probes to a place they will ACCURATELY measure the temperatures. $$$ talks. Just my opinion. Don't like my opinion? Don't slam me for it. Ya' all have your own opinions too. 

[Jáchym]

True, though I dont quite understand why people always try so hard to find reasons to deny global warming (and Im not talking about whether or not it is caused by humans, lets not talk about that now), but denying global warming as such (whatever the cause is) is.... well.....

[DoctorKnow]

Is there such a thing as "Global Cooling", or would that title defeat the globalists agenda? It seems they want to use climate change and GW to shut down too many things that are important to us. I think the earth is changing from different activities going on so that we can live. I also think they are using it in a negative way for some future agenda. With politicians, they always seem to be planning something behind the curtain.

[Jáchym]

I must say I am really suprised how many people in the U.S. believe global warming does not exist - it is actually quite rare here for someone to think that. Yes I see often people do not believe that it is caused by humans, but the scientific evidence for global warming as such (whatever the reason may be) is very strong.

In this particular case for example I could say that:
1) what makes you believe that it just happens to be that the stations are in places that are warmer (even if they were not correctly sited, why do you think there would be a bias towards placing them where it is warmer, they could just as well be poorly sited and so be cooler than they should)
2) more importantly though, what about remote sensing.... that disproves your theory, satellites are quite accurate and can measure the temperature quite accurately. Not with such high resolution, but we are not interested in the weather in the town XY, but globally.

Of course it could be just anomaly, probability issue that a certain month is the hottest, but if it is 14 months in a row.... yes it can still be just "luck", but the probability is so low that it is hard for me to believe it, not to mention the many other evidences.

But as you said, I am not going to try to persuade you, the problem is that if someone wants to believe something, they will always find a reason why your arguments are questionable, just like many still believe we never landed on Moon, evolution did not take place or even that the Earth is flat and whenever you prove that their argumentation is flawed, they come up with different one.

[AWL]

I seriously doubt that this was the hottest July ever. Also this coming winter will not be the coldest ever nor will it be the warmest. After reading thread after thread about this I did a search on global temperatures over the past million years. While sitting at work I literally looked at a couple of hundred charts and didn't see any relationship between CO2 and global warming . In fact it appears that the reverse is closer to the truth. Nearly all the charts show in the long term the Earth is cooling not warming.
  I think that people over estimate the impact that man has on world climate. I also did a search on how many scientists are jumping off the global warming band wagon and the numbers were surprisingly high. Many have now stated that the data is just not there that will support this theory. In fact even those that believe have to admit, for some unknown reason, the global temps have leveled out over the past 18 years.
 Last, and to me, the most important factor in this is that you can never trust research that is sponsored mostly by government because as we all know if the research doesn't doesn't show what they want to see the grant money gets cut.
 As its been stated many times the numbers can be crunched in any direction to show what a person wants to see. Might be interesting to do that same search I did and look at the numbers yourselves.
I do know one thing for sure and that is there have been many millions of dollars reaped by people pushing an agenda that at its best is just a theory. 
 

[ocala]

Usually I stay out of these conversations. Like politics, nobody's mind will be changed.
This link though got me thinking.http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-antarctic-ice.html
It shows how Arctic sea ice is retreating but Antarctic sea ice is expanding. It's almost like wind patters are changing at the poles. One possible reason they give for Arctic is that it's surrounded by land which inhibits sea ice growth where as the Antarctic is surrounded by water which is more conducive for sea ice growth.
Who knows.

[Bushman]

Not in Western Canada - the first two weeks were friggin' AWFUL!!

[W3DRM]

And not here in northern Nevada either! Yes, it's been warm but, after going over my weather station records kept since 2005, I find this year to be just another average year with no huge spikes in either heat or cold. In fact, over the past 10 years, I don't see any real trend in either direction. Sure, we have some days with high or low readings but overall, it appears to be "non-weather as usual" here in the Nevada high desert.

We're now in the middle of switching from a El Nino to a La Nina so I would expect to see some changes coming this winter, as we always do during those transition years.

As for Global Warming, Climate Change or whatever you want to call it, the earth has always gone through changes over time. Some "experts" are now predicting that we are going into a Global Cooling period. Who are we to believe? I'm guessing that good old mother Earth will do just fine and keep on chugging along regardless of what we humans try to do to upset the weather cycles.

[Jáchym]

Fine, i will stick to your way of argumentation guys.


Here in the Czech Republic, in recent years and this week too (!) we are well above average, that must mean global warming is happening!

Also, if I understand it correctly, since there is money spent by the goverments on doing this research, it is therefore flawed and biased. OK. (but remember, it was hot here so....!)

[DoctorKnow]

Here in my area, the humidity has been at the highest levels over the last month and a half that I can ever remember for such an extended period. It's not the air temp that has been at records, it's the heat index. 103 to 112 F range almost every day. Wet bulbs in the high 70s to even 80 at times. Constantly in the 70s.

[Jáchym]

Yes, which would theoretically prove "global warming". However, despite the fact this proves my point, i am going to say, your comment in particular is absolutely irrelevant.

"...I can ever remember"

one place, one location....


But the fact that this applies globally and compared to averages done using 30year normals is of course a different matter

[DoctorKnow]

Yes, which would theoretically prove "global warming". However, despite the fact this proves my point, i am going to say, your comment in particular is absolutely irrelevant.

"...I can ever remember"

one place, one location....


But the fact that this applies globally and compared to averages done using 30year normals is of course a different matter

Well, the climate center in Raleigh NC has all the technical stuff, and they also say this year was was a higher than average year for dew point readings across this state. When it came to GW, I thought they were using "air temp" to validate their claims, and putting the sensors over gravel and blacktop. This kind of practice doesn't sell me on their findings... I'm skeptical.

[Jáchym]

The problem in this case is really this:

We are unable to say global warming exists for 100%. It will always be a matter of probability and at that moment it is a problem because no matter how much evidence and how valid that proof is, there will always be a space for speculation...

And so if someone wants to disprove it, they will always look for that margin of probability....

The difference is not too large -> they will say it is meaningless
You get to next stage:
The difference is large enough and statistically significant -> they will say the measurements are not accurate
You get to next stage:
You check the equipment and prove the equipment is accurate -> they will say that goverments want to hide the truth and so it is a human error that intentionally changes the accurate measurements...

etc etc

[gadget_guy]

I don't feel confident in all these pronouncements about record hot months.  My concerns are:  What is the confidence level?  I read that much of the heat gain is being recorded in he oceans.  How much is attributable to better measurement techniques?  Also I see lots of manipulations of temperature records.  Here in Harrisonburg the reporting station at Dale Enterprise is a perfect example.  Take a look at the thermometer record vs the adjusted record.  FOr some unexplained reason, early data has been adjusted downward by a non linear amount.  This has the effect of making recent temperatures rising much faster than the actual thermometer record.

[Jáchym]

And there we go again..... a graph from one station "somewhere in Harrisonburg".... yes you are correct, I can find you tens of stations where the temperature has been decreasing...

[Jáchym]

Since you gave an example I will also give one

There is one station in Prague which has the longest series of measurements, dating back as far as 1775.

The station has been at the same spot and temperatures recorded every day.

Now, when you look at the data, they report the year during which the maximum and minimum average temperature of that day was measured. In other words you have a table with 366 rows and for each day you have 2 years - one when the min and one when the max was measured.

If you look at that table, you will find that over 50% of the years for the maximum values begin with a "2" (i.e. were measured after 2000). If, however, you look at the column with the minimums, you will find one single value after 2000 - and that just happened to occur last week actually... so up until last week we did not have a single minimum after 2000. In this case, the station has over 200 years of data, obviously a data set much more relevant than stations with short series.

Is that just a coincidence?

[Greg_M]

Consider the life cycle of a star (our sun being one).
Eventually, as our sun consumes it's fuel, it will turn in to a red giant whose diameter will be larger than the orbit of this planet.
Global warming is coming......eventually.

[Jáchym]

Yes, so I am right

[tbrasel]

Yes, so I am right

[ValentineWeather]

I don't feel confident in all these pronouncements about record hot months.  My concerns are:  What is the confidence level?  I read that much of the heat gain is being recorded in he oceans.  How much is attributable to better measurement techniques?  Also I see lots of manipulations of temperature records.  Here in Harrisonburg the reporting station at Dale Enterprise is a perfect example.  Take a look at the thermometer record vs the adjusted record.  FOr some unexplained reason, early data has been adjusted downward by a non linear amount.  This has the effect of making recent temperatures rising much faster than the actual thermometer record.

Dead on Gadget guy

The data can't be trusted, its skewed when they started using ocean data easily manipulated (Pick your Buoy you can have a 5°+ difference over a couple mile region) and has no long term comparison data anyway.
 
They had to do something when land data wasn't showing any substantial increase and even flatlining. I'm talking about the pristine WX stations not influenced by heat islands and urban growth.

[gadget_guy]

Jachym:  You missed my point.  I was trying to show how the thermometer record is being adjusted by some unknown and non linear method well after the historical record.  This station BTW is the oldest reporting station in Virginia and is a prime example of a well located station.  I am not commenting on the trend line showing cooling.  Don't know about that, just the way the historical record is being edited and changed not at the time of observation but in recent times.  How in the world can anyone say they are able to justify temperature records from as far back to the 1890s

[Jáchym]

Yes ok, but the data from the station here was not manipulated in any way...

[N0NB]

I must say I am really suprised how many people in the U.S. believe global warming does not exist - it is actually quite rare here for someone to think that.

Historically, US citizens have tended to be an independent minded bunch.  Unfortunately, such a mindset is quickly slipping into the minority and we'll soon be just as malleable as elsewhere.  The American mindset traditionally had a distrust of authority that proclaimed "this is for your own good" and it is that distrust that is reflected in many of our comments when we see that the only proclaimed "solutions" for GW are wealth redistribution via tax increases and/or reduced standards of living.  Suffice it to say that going any further down this rabbit hole will likely violate the TOS, so I am offering reasons for the comments you're surprised by.  Let's just accept that some of us here in the States often see things differently.

As for July, well, here it had a few hot days but was relatively mild even though right here we've been quite dry.  Not all that far south they have received considerable precipitation and with prevailing south winds our humidity has been higher than our dry soil would suggest.  No alarm here, just a weather pattern I've seen before and will likely see again sometime in the future.