Author Topic: The Warming Climate  (Read 11188 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online gwwilk

  • Southeast Lincoln Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1701
    • SouthEast Lincoln, NE Weather
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #50 on: May 14, 2016, 05:02:22 PM »
Now, there is one thing that I cannot resist to ask you.

There is a fundamental flaw in your argument.

You are basically saying all the time, we have insufficient evidence that global warming is a result of human intervention, arguing that temperatures could be rising for other reasons, etc etc.

But... I could actually say the exact opposite, but using the same logic:

What evidence do you have for the fact this is NOT happening as a result of human actions? What evidence do you have that the oceans are rising for other reasons? The problem is obvious - yes I agree that we will very likely never have a definitive answer as to whether or not humans are causing this, but so are you never going to have a definitive evidence that this is not due to humans.

In conclusion - we could both be right and so it is just a matter of what everyone thinks is more likely. I myself have my own opinion, I am not going to say yours is wrong, you just believe the opposite, but likewise you cannot prove me wrong... thats the point...
Let me get this straight.  The oceans have been rising for millenia as glacial ice from the last ice age has been melting, so you're positing that the ice ages were caused by prehistoric humans?  There's scant evidence of such, although you are free to believe what you will.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
gwwilk@inebraska.com

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #51 on: May 14, 2016, 05:46:20 PM »
The problem is that rising oceans is by far not the only evidence people give for global warming....

Online gwwilk

  • Southeast Lincoln Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1701
    • SouthEast Lincoln, NE Weather
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #52 on: May 15, 2016, 09:34:35 AM »
The problem is that rising oceans is by far not the only evidence people give for global warming....
But it's the evidence you cited, Jachym. ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
gwwilk@inebraska.com

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #53 on: May 15, 2016, 09:56:50 AM »
No I did not, I was not the one who began conversation about sea level rise (see previous page of this thread).

You know I think we should really end this debate, it is going nowhere.

Maybe if I didn't do these things for living and didn't know all the things I know, if I didn't have data and analyses from first hand (not interpreted by someone or some biased statistic as you are suggesting), didn't read the books, articles and reports and seen things myself, then I might also think otherwise.

Online gwwilk

  • Southeast Lincoln Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1701
    • SouthEast Lincoln, NE Weather
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #54 on: May 15, 2016, 10:15:37 AM »
No I did not, I was not the one who began conversation about sea level rise (see previous page of this thread).
But it was you who claimed that it could be due to human influences on a multi-millenial basis.
Quote
You know I think we should really end this debate, it is going nowhere.
Agreed.
Quote
Maybe if I didn't do these things for living and didn't know all the things I know, if I didn't have data and analyses from first hand (not interpreted by someone or some biased statistic as you are suggesting), didn't read the books, articles and reports and seen things myself, then I might also think otherwise.
The appeal to authority is a well-known logical fallacy, Jachym.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
gwwilk@inebraska.com

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #55 on: May 15, 2016, 10:21:43 AM »
I am not appealing to authority, my point was that I think I have enough information to make up my mind about this.

The problem with your argumentation is that you only deny everything people say are evidences for global warming. But you have not presented any arguments that would clearly show, it is not happening.

All things such as much faster rate of rising global temperatures, much faster rate of sea level rise, much faster rate of CO2 and other GHG build up in the atmosphere.... all these things all fit nicely to the theory of global warming and humans causing it (burning fossil fuels etc etc). So this all fits.

Now, your argument is that although this is all happening, it is not a result of human action, but rather a natural development. However, first of all, if it was natural, why is there such sudden increased rate, and second, more importantly, you are still just saying "no, this is not due to humans" - but what makes you think so, just because temperatures have risen in the past does not mean it is now again just a natural phenomenon. My point is that you are all the time just saying "not it is not humans" - but give no evidence for this other than "this happened in the past". You seem to ignore the fact that if it was humans causing this, the evidences would be exactly what we see now.

Online gwwilk

  • Southeast Lincoln Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1701
    • SouthEast Lincoln, NE Weather
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #56 on: May 15, 2016, 01:33:47 PM »
I am not appealing to authority, my point was that I think I have enough information to make up my mind about this.
You are indeed appealing to authority.
Quote

The problem with your argumentation is that you only deny everything people say are evidences for global warming. But you have not presented any arguments that would clearly show, it is not happening.
See below.
Quote

All things such as much faster rate of rising global temperatures, much faster rate of sea level rise, much faster rate of CO2 and other GHG build up in the atmosphere.... all these things all fit nicely to the theory of global warming and humans causing it (burning fossil fuels etc etc). So this all fits.

Now, your argument is that although this is all happening, it is not a result of human action, but rather a natural development. However, first of all, if it was natural, why is there such sudden increased rate, and second, more importantly, you are still just saying "no, this is not due to humans" - but what makes you think so, just because temperatures have risen in the past does not mean it is now again just a natural phenomenon. My point is that you are all the time just saying "not it is not humans" - but give no evidence for this other than "this happened in the past". You seem to ignore the fact that if it was humans causing this, the evidences would be exactly what we see now.
I don't think the evidence is nearly so monolithic and 'factual' as you have been led to believe.  There are good geological and geophysical arguments against all of the environmentalist claims you cite.  Here is an entry into contrarian geophysical views.  And another.  And another.  Finally, the truth about your hockey-stick?

People used to agree that our Sun was the center of the universe.  You know how that consensus was shattered, slowly and painfully.  Physicians for millenia believed and taught that the cause of peptic ulcer disease was psychogenic.  We now know the vast majority of peptic ulcers are caused by Helicobacter pylori infections.  Consensus can often be wrong.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
gwwilk@inebraska.com

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2649
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #57 on: May 15, 2016, 05:18:51 PM »
People are silly enough to think we have an effect on an eco-system that has existed for eons before us and will exist for eons after us.

When Momma thinks we've spit in her eye too many times, she'll deal with us decisively.  It won't be a little water here and there, or making it a little too hot.  It will be cataclysmic; something like multiple Volcanic eruptions or Earthquakes in close succession.



« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 05:21:41 PM by WeatherHost »
Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #58 on: May 15, 2016, 05:30:56 PM »
There is no point in posting any links to studies and papers, why? Because for every paper you post I can post a different one that will contradict it and be for global warming.

You are absolutely correct in that very often, statistics are biased, misinterpreted etc etc.... the problem however, is that global warming is something you cannot use only your primary data for - in other words, it is absolutely irrelevant what you yourself see at your place. That means you sort of rely on these studies and papers and the results of these analyses.

And the problem is that there is no way you can say only "that" particular statistic is biased. Maybe it is the one against global warming, maybe it is the one for it.... there are companies and parties that have a big interest in denying global warming. Likewise there are many who would benefit if global warming was proved. So you will find statistics biased in both directions and so the conclusion is again - it is up to everyone to make a ballanced decision based on what they know, read and think. But it remains impossible for you and me to prove the other one wrong...

Offline Old Tele man

  • Singing in the rain...
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 926
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #59 on: May 15, 2016, 05:38:22 PM »
Just a "bystanders" observation, but it seems to me the underlying reason so many people believe there's no real long-term climate change stems from:

A) Weather, just wait and it'll change (as currently is happening).
B) Too many politicians (especially) and scientists (sadly) are "on the take" from corporations with their own vested interests.
C) Governments routinely lie to their constituents for the government's invested interests as well.
D) Too many people actually BELIEVE everything they see/read on the internet.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2016, 05:58:02 PM by Old Tele man »
• SYS: Davis VP2/WL-IP & Envoy8X/WL-USB
• CWOP: DW6988 - 2 miles NNE of Cortaro, AZ
• WU - KAZTUCSO202, Countryside

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #60 on: May 15, 2016, 05:52:24 PM »
I know this very very well... given I mastered from Genetics, I have seen similar thing so many times... I still find it hard to believe how many people actually do not believe in evolution. And what is more, so many people really believe that the Earth was created several thousand years ago, as stated in the bible. Now, I do not want to insult anyone's beliefs, but believing in God, respecting the Bible etc. is one thing, but absolutely overseeing scientific evidences is a different matter. And what is even more shocking is the number of people who actually believe the Earth is flat! I am not joking... people will always try to find conspiracy theories in everything, saying all the images of Earth from space are fake, Earth as we know it "looks flat" and everytime you come up with an argument such as "how come no-one has ever fallen over the edge", they will only look for further and further explanations.

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #61 on: May 15, 2016, 05:55:53 PM »
Absolutely agree with this:

Quote
People are drawn to conspiracy theories, though, and the Internet has only helped to accelerate their spread. They give certain people a sense of security, control and comfort that they haven’t found in the natural world around them. By only conversing with others that agree with them in “echo chambers,” any opposing views are filtered out, and they become increasingly entrenched in their own views. Perhaps this is what drives contemporary Flat Earthers.

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2649
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #62 on: May 15, 2016, 06:16:42 PM »
... but it seems to me the underlying reason so many people believe there's no real long-term climate change stems from  ...

There IS long term climate change.  Far longer than Human existence.  'Climate' is a living thing, changing constantly which explains the Ice Ages and glaciers forming the Great Lakes Basin.  They're in retreat now.  A few millions years from now, they'll be advancing again.

Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #63 on: May 15, 2016, 06:24:40 PM »
... but it seems to me the underlying reason so many people believe there's no real long-term climate change stems from  ...

There IS long term climate change.  Far longer than Human existence.  'Climate' is a living thing, changing constantly which explains the Ice Ages and glaciers forming the Great Lakes Basin.  They're in retreat now.  A few millions years from now, they'll be advancing again.

Yes, agree, just that it has now accelerated rapidly and is well explained by what we do

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #64 on: May 15, 2016, 06:43:42 PM »
Let me just give you a different example.

I guess we can at least all agree on that it is a problem - lets now ignore whether caused by humans or not - the increasing sea levels, the accelerated warming and the increasing number of natural disasters, anomalies and extremes, is a serious threat and can cause many lost lives and damages.

There are two options: either it is a natural development, or it is something caused by human actions.

If we now try to reduce the possible things that could be causing this - i.e. reduce emissions etc., then you could take it as a precaution measure. It will again lead to two possible scenarios. Either we will discover that it solved the problem - great. Or we realize it had no effect, in which case we could at least say "we tried". It is always easier to just put one's head in the sand and pretend there are no problems or just blame the mother nature... If there was an asteroid heading towards the Earth, would you also say: well, you know our planet was hit many times in the past so let's just live with it. Or would you at least try to do anything you could to try to diverge it? And I know this example is extreme, but it is sort of the same way of thinking. Likewise, do you backup your PC files? Do you pay health insurance? I guess (hope) you do, and are you later on pissed off if you don't actually need that backup because your HDD didnt fail, or when you don't use the insurance because you were not sick? Taking precaution measures is something that might have its disadvantages, but if you ever need it, you will be very glad for what you did in the past.

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #65 on: May 15, 2016, 07:39:14 PM »
If we now try to reduce the possible things that could be causing this - i.e. reduce emissions etc., then you could take it as a precaution measure. It will again lead to two possible scenarios. Either we will discover that it solved the problem - great. Or we realize it had no effect, in which case we could at least say "we tried".

I totally agree with that.  I certainly don't want to see the US going back to the "good old days" with all the air (and water) polluting factories and other polluting sources (AGAIN) as some politicians want us to do.  The US has actually done a lot to curb emissions but, we still need to cut back even more.

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #66 on: May 15, 2016, 08:09:03 PM »
Yes, though it must be stated that it is/was not just the US. If people only see the economical factor and profit then it is a problem, and even that is actually controversial, because it is just short-term profit and solution, in long-term.... the earlier we start, the better and it might also be too late one day.

I always admired people who didn't just feel content with whatever is already available and the way things are. In fact, if everyone thought like that none of the modern technological advances would be possible.

Quote
Everything that can be Invented has been Invented

Charles H. Duell, the Commissioner of US patent office in 1899.

I also try not to be like that. When I first started thinking about making a weather website two years ago, I came across this forum and Saratoga and Leuven. Now, as much as I like those templates and think Ken and Wim have done amazing job, it was just not what I was looking for - I wanted something that will also save my data and utilize MySQL. Of course I could just say, well, too bad and install one of those and have it the next day. But I chose the harder way and decided I will rather have it later and started learning PHP and HTML etc. and then creating my own.

If we just say there is nothing we can do about this and that if global warming occurs it is just the way things "were meant to be", without even trying... I personally believe we, humans, are the main cause of these sudden problems, but whether or not you share that opinion, it should also be in your interest to at least try to fight it, rather than just say, I dont care, I will just ignore it, I am not going to make any compromise. Thinking this will have a positive effect, generate more profit is very short sighted.

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #67 on: May 15, 2016, 11:08:44 PM »
Sorry, I didn't mean to piss anybody off here.  Post deleted.

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #68 on: May 27, 2016, 08:35:46 PM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36401174

Quote
Every single major scientific institution in the United States, including the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy for the Advancement of Science, the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union and the American Institute of Physics, have published reports and/or statements affirming man’s role in climate change based on multiple lines of evidence.

Quote
He says scientists “now don’t know if they have global warming” when there is absolutely zero doubt, even among scientists who are unconvinced climate change poses a major threat, that the planet is warming up. The latest two years were the warmest two years on record, and the warmth in the months of January and February deviated more from average than ever before (in historical records).

Donald Trump:
Quote
I think it’s weather; I think it’s weather changes,” Trump said. “There could be some man-made something. But, you know, if you look at China, they’re doing nothing about it, other countries are doing nothing about it.  It’s a big planet. ”

He doesnt even know the difference between weather and climate. Also, I cannot believe his reasoning - "others dont so why should we"... Its like saying - someone stole something/murdered someone etc. so I will as well, just because I want to and since someone else has done it, there is nothing wrong with me doing it as well.... no comment

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3566
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #69 on: May 27, 2016, 09:26:32 PM »
Actually Trump is the result of the last decade (8 yrs) of stagnation of the economy brought on by regulations meant to strangle business. America is finally ready for a change in a big way.
 
Either toward freeing up capitalism or moving toward socialism. We will see but I think he has a great chance of winning despite the handfuls of protesters.
Who knows he may just bring jobs back to Europe, Canada etc. A prosperous United States means good things on the commerce side for many.
Randy

Offline Coolerman

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 36
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #70 on: June 10, 2016, 03:06:27 PM »
Interesting discussion. I'm divided on this one.

One one hand I believe we have barely even begun to understand how interactions, between the many variables that influence our climate, actually work. Hell we don't even know what all the variables are! Our climate models are just coming out of the stone age, I mean, they are just now starting to include the oceans in their models! We still don't even understand exactly how the oceans affect climate. 

We are slowly learning! Our ability to capture, and understand the data, captured over the years from our instruments is constantly improving. Our ability to extract climate data from ice cores, tree rings, and rock samples is truly amazing. However, we have a long way to go before we will truly understand how all the variables involved in climate really work.

But...   Just because we don't really understand how all this works, and the fact that some of the data may be flawed by our capture techniques, or by our not understanding it, or even by outright falsification, does not mean we should ignore the fact that CO2 levels ARE increasing, and we ARE one of the causes. If we wait until we truly understand what is happening, I'm afraid it will be too late for planet earth. (Think Venus)

I know that in reality, it will be impossible to get the world as a whole to stop, or even slow down carbon emissions. The world currently has nothing to replace it's carbon burning for energy with! China, India and the some smaller countries do not have the will, nor the ability, in some cases to implement such plans. Here in the US politics as usual will prevent it from EVER happening. 

Oh, one last thing. Anyone who thinks Donald Trump is going to help with this issue is smoking something...
Anyway just food for thought...
Davis VP2 Pro Plus w/FARS, CoCoRaHS Station KY-GD-2

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #71 on: June 10, 2016, 04:34:59 PM »
Interesting discussion. I'm divided on this one.

One one hand I believe we have barely even begun to understand how interactions, between the many variables that influence our climate, actually work. Hell we don't even know what all the variables are! Our climate models are just coming out of the stone age, I mean, they are just now starting to include the oceans in their models! We still don't even understand exactly how the oceans affect climate. 

We are slowly learning! Our ability to capture, and understand the data, captured over the years from our instruments is constantly improving. Our ability to extract climate data from ice cores, tree rings, and rock samples is truly amazing. However, we have a long way to go before we will truly understand how all the variables involved in climate really work.

But...   Just because we don't really understand how all this works, and the fact that some of the data may be flawed by our capture techniques, or by our not understanding it, or even by outright falsification, does not mean we should ignore the fact that CO2 levels ARE increasing, and we ARE one of the causes. If we wait until we truly understand what is happening, I'm afraid it will be too late for planet earth. (Think Venus)

I know that in reality, it will be impossible to get the world as a whole to stop, or even slow down carbon emissions. The world currently has nothing to replace it's carbon burning for energy with! China, India and the some smaller countries do not have the will, nor the ability, in some cases to implement such plans. Here in the US politics as usual will prevent it from EVER happening. 

Oh, one last thing. Anyone who thinks Donald Trump is going to help with this issue is smoking something...
Anyway just food for thought...

 =D> =D> =D>

Online Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 7560
    • Meteotemplate
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #72 on: August 02, 2016, 06:07:59 PM »
I dont want to start another flame discussion, so lets not discuss whether or not this is caused by humans (you all know my opinion and I respect other people's views), but lets just look at the bare facts:

- Earth's fever got worse last year, breaking dozens of climate records, scientists said in a massive report nicknamed the annual physical for the planet.
- Soon after 2015 ended, it was proclaimed the hottest on record.
- record heat energy absorbed by the oceans and lowest groundwater storage levels globally
- it's more than just numbers on a graph. Scientists said the turbo-charged climate affected walrus and penguin populations and played a role in dangerous algae blooms, such as one off the Pacific Northwest coast. And there were brutal heat waves all over the world, with ones in India and Pakistan killing thousands of people.
- 2015 was hottest year by huge margin
- every month for the last 14 months in a row (!) has been the warmest on record!

more info: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-records-smashed-2015-scientists-earth-annual-physical-exam-a7168986.html

As I said, I will not discuss whether or not it is "man-made global warming", but what really annoys me is when people who have absolutely no clue about these things say that "global warming" does not occur. Yes it does. And giving arguments such as "it was quite cold last week".

« Last Edit: August 02, 2016, 06:10:27 PM by Jáchym »

Offline ClaireAnderson

  • Senior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 70
    • Best free weather app for iPhone & iPad
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #73 on: November 02, 2016, 01:04:41 AM »
The Global warming is one of the reasons that the climate and the global temperature is changing every year. The hot temperature in the areas are becoming more intense. Global warming is raising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting the glaciers and ice sheets, and it is also warming the ocean surfaces which is leading to increased temperature stratification. But there are some people that do not agree that the global warming can cause climate changes. But we cannot ignore the fact that the climate is changing all around the world.
Claire Anderson
http://www.weathermate.net
San Francisco, CA, USA

Offline SoMDWx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 714
    • Southern Maryland Weather
Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2016, 10:32:16 AM »
Again, this whole discussion about Global Warming and climate change is so politicized. Whether the fact about data tampering is true or not, the impression of doctoring the data for political reasons IS a perception the many have taken for reality. Also you are seeing posts about wrongly placed instruments and stations that have not been maintained for quite sometime but are still contributing to the overall data set. We are seeing jabs being thrown by both sides of the argument that the other is using Global warming as an excuse for further funding needs and continuation for studies just for the sake of employment longevity and not the TRUTH....

Unless each person can perform their own studies and have an extensive knowledge and climatic impacts upon the world, we only have the so-called experts to rely on and we hope they are truthful and not biased by political or monetary influences...

Does the earth appear to be entering a warm phase? Looks that way.. Is it affect by mankind's industrial output, to some extent , yes. But to what impact is it having? Do we have enough data points to go back 100s, if not thousands of years, to truly understand the impacts... who knows.
Jim Wyman
Southern Maryland Weather
http://somdweather.com
http://scit.somdweather.com

 

anything