Author Topic: NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts  (Read 892 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4577
NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts
« on: October 29, 2017, 07:22:54 PM »
Here is a survey if interested.
Personally I wish they would just work on better accuracy short term.

WPC is exploring 8-10 day forecasts and would value your feedback on our sample products. Please take our survey

http://www.probabilisticweatherforecast.com/ProbabilisticProductSurvey.aspx
Randy

Offline Old Tele man

  • Singing in the rain...
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1158
Re: NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2017, 08:17:20 PM »
Pardon my obvious cynicism, but the NWS should better their 7 day forecasts BEFORE they 'stretch' to 8-10 day forecasts.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 01:44:46 PM by Old Tele man »
SYS: Davis VP2/WL-IP & Envoy8X/WL-USB
CWOP: DW6988 - 2 miles NNE of Cortaro, AZ
WU - KAZTUCSO202, Countryside

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4577
Re: NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2017, 08:40:23 PM »
Agree... I'm thinking its a case of wanting to keep up with Joneses. WU and WC have a 10 day and beyond 7 days it rarely stays the same and changes with each computer run, another reason I don't put much into really long range model predictions other than fun to look and talk about.   
Randy

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3357
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2017, 03:16:11 PM »
Thanks for the link Randy.
Agree with y'all that it's a waste of time.
I should have put in my comments that I wish they would make the Goes 16 data operational
sooner. :-)

Offline stanleyjenkins

  • Software Developer / Forecaster
  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 14
  • Software Developer, Forecaster
    • Fantasy Blizzard
Re: NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2017, 06:57:55 AM »
I'm in agreement with everyone know. They should focus on improving accuracy in their 7 day forecasts before extending to 8-10 days.  At least not give detailed forecasts for that range. If they want to give generic trends like "warm and dry", that might be okay.

Offline sacreyweather

  • Echo Valley Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1631
    • Echo Valley Weather
Re: NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2017, 07:38:06 AM »
100% Agree with all of the above. I look at anything past about 5 days out as being a WAG, which it is. I let them know that, as well. I reminded them that their mission is and has always been scientific, not commercialism like WU/TWC/Accuweather are.

They need to focus on getting the 3-7 forecasts more accurate, getting the GOES16-R operational, and look at implementing the PARS (phased array radar system) currently in development. These would be far more beneficial, IMHO.

John
CWOP: D2073, GR2AE, GR3, Cumulus, PWSweather,  CoCoRaHS: AR-SL-23  

Saline Weather on Twitter
Blitzortung Station 1387

Offline miraculon

  • Sunrise Side Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3014
  • KE8DAF
    • Sunrise Side Weather in Rogers City MI USA
Re: NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2017, 10:56:22 AM »
Quote
I look at anything past about 5 days out as being a WAG

Yes, but it is a Scientific WAG, a.k.a. SWAG....  :-)

Greg H.




Blitzortung Stations #706 and #1682
CoCoRaHS: MI-PI-1
CWOP: CW4114 and KE8DAF-13
WU: KMIROGER7
Amateur Radio Callsign: KE8DAF

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3028
Re: NWS exploring 8-10 day forecasts
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2017, 06:36:42 PM »
Can they work on getting the 8-10 HOUR consistently right first?
Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.