Author Topic: Hurricane IRMA  (Read 4624 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #50 on: September 07, 2017, 09:34:38 AM »
I've been scanning this thread, along with doing some google 'research' along with just asking some meteorologists I know but haven't gotten an answer.  Is there someone here who has a link or explanation as to:

Despite a relatively straight track for over a week, the models predict a very sudden change in the track of Hurricane Irma as it gets just South of Florida.  What does the modelling software take into account to cause this shift in direction?

I can't believe that having smashed a few tiny islands that going along Cuba can alter the course.  Is it less energy picked up from the warm water along with moisture being denied by the landmass of Cuba?  If it stays further from Cuba it still makes this dramatic turn.

Has anyone seen an explanation for this, or what the real cause is?  (one layperson's opinion was it it was 'bouncing' off Cuba, which made me not trust his scientific background too much.



I have seen that the low coming down from the NW towards the SE is going to push the storm between it and the Bermuda High, causing the direction change and the left turn again after it gets to GA/SC line.

Offline Jasiu

  • Senior Contributor
  • ****
  • Posts: 170
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #51 on: September 07, 2017, 10:13:15 AM »
I've been scanning this thread, along with doing some google 'research' along with just asking some meteorologists I know but haven't gotten an answer.  Is there someone here who has a link or explanation as to:

Despite a relatively straight track for over a week, the models predict a very sudden change in the track of Hurricane Irma as it gets just South of Florida.  What does the modelling software take into account to cause this shift in direction?

I can't believe that having smashed a few tiny islands that going along Cuba can alter the course.  Is it less energy picked up from the warm water along with moisture being denied by the landmass of Cuba?  If it stays further from Cuba it still makes this dramatic turn.

Has anyone seen an explanation for this, or what the real cause is?  (one layperson's opinion was it it was 'bouncing' off Cuba, which made me not trust his scientific background too much.

If you watch the weather channel for long enough they get into it with graphics and everything. It is a combination of the Atlantic high pressure with an expected trough across the continental US.  Basically, Irma will be "coming around the corner" of the high, which has been mostly responsible for the current track. The trough is expected to prohibit further westward motion, thus the abrupt nudge north.

Offline Jstx

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 128
  • Baby the Rain Must Fall
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #52 on: September 07, 2017, 11:23:36 AM »
Hoolleee Chit!
Hurricane Jose is tracking very close behind Hurricane Irma and is fixing to slam into the same Northern Leeward Islands that Irma just leveled! Can't imagine what those people are enduring over there.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090123.shtml?cone#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3080
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #53 on: September 07, 2017, 03:30:18 PM »
I can't believe that having smashed a few tiny islands that going along Cuba can alter the course.  Is it less energy picked up from the warm water along with moisture being denied by the landmass of Cuba?  If it stays further from Cuba it still makes this dramatic turn.

Has anyone seen an explanation for this, or what the real cause is?  (one layperson's opinion was it it was 'bouncing' off Cuba, which made me not trust his scientific background too much.

What does the US Coast Guard and Navy do with their big boats during such times?  And what about those ships which are in dry dock or retrofit and cannot move under their own power, such as in Newport News, etc. when a hurricane hits?  I'd think that even tied up there would be a lot of force on the tie down points when an aircraft carrier gets lifted by a storm surge or blow sideways into the dock by 100 mph winds.

Is anyone from a branch of the wet services that knows or been through one?

Tropical systems are a surface based low pressure system and they act like a cork floating in a large pool, they go wherever flows, eddies, currents in the atmosphere push it. Land fall, brief or not, does not effect the track of the storm, merely cuts off the fuel supply.

As far as ships, I know "small boys" as we called them, (destroyers, cruisers, and such) leave port if necessary. If the storm is strong enough, I believe just about any able ship leaves port and seeks safety well away from the path. As far as dry dock, I have no idea.
Davis Wireless VP2 SHT31 24hr 67CFM FARS
RW Tipper w/ CoCoRaHS

Online ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4101
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #54 on: September 07, 2017, 03:59:56 PM »
My early prediction of eye landfall. Very unscientific just looking at current course.
Randy, the Aviator is my father in 1963 with his Indian bike

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3080
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #55 on: September 07, 2017, 05:20:38 PM »
How apropos, Key Largo, excellent movie! Johnny Rocco! :twisted:
Davis Wireless VP2 SHT31 24hr 67CFM FARS
RW Tipper w/ CoCoRaHS

Offline Sooner Al

  • Old enough to know better...
  • Senior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 83
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #56 on: September 07, 2017, 07:30:01 PM »
FWIW...

Cuban weather radar sites...

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

Link seems dead this morning at 4.51 AM CDT...Hmmm...
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 05:51:25 AM by Sooner Al »
Retired NWS ESA/ET
Sys: Davis VP2 (Wireless)

Online ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4101
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #57 on: September 07, 2017, 08:24:07 PM »
How apropos, Key Largo, excellent movie! Johnny Rocco! :twisted:

I just watched it recently on TCM, it was entertaining.  :-)
Randy, the Aviator is my father in 1963 with his Indian bike

Offline weatherist34

  • its just my hobby
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 485
    • Sinanoba Istanbul Home Weather Station
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #58 on: September 08, 2017, 01:19:02 PM »
Some coincidence...
https://www.weather34.com
tip ..does your site make more than 50-70 or more HTTP requests,you've probably answered the question why your site performs so slow !

Offline Sooner Al

  • Old enough to know better...
  • Senior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 83
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #59 on: September 08, 2017, 04:49:29 PM »
Cuban radar back...

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Retired NWS ESA/ET
Sys: Davis VP2 (Wireless)

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3190
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #60 on: September 08, 2017, 06:31:11 PM »
Back to a SW Fla hit.

Online ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4101
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #61 on: September 08, 2017, 06:38:07 PM »
Back to a SW Fla hit.

What's ETA on this? I was looking at hurricane center and it looks like around sunrise Sunday morning for eye making landfall if I was seeing right.
Randy, the Aviator is my father in 1963 with his Indian bike

Online ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4101
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #62 on: September 08, 2017, 06:42:14 PM »
Now it looks more like 1-2 pm but eye going to be so close all morning if it tracks like this.
Randy, the Aviator is my father in 1963 with his Indian bike

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3190
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #63 on: September 08, 2017, 06:54:22 PM »
Back to a SW Fla hit.

What's ETA on this? I was looking at hurricane center and it looks like around sunrise Sunday morning for eye making landfall if I was seeing right.
Sunday about 2 PM

Offline WxLover16

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 391
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #64 on: September 08, 2017, 06:55:59 PM »
This looks to come real close to making a possible brief landfall in northern Cuba. Not sure where exactly the big mountains are but since this is a big storm I'm thinking it will injest a bunch of dry air from those mountains and weaken more than forecast. Maybe that will save SW FL from something not seen in our lifetime.
Davis Wireless VP2 SHT31 24hr 24CFM FARS

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3190
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #65 on: September 08, 2017, 07:02:21 PM »
The bigger mountains are in the center of the island. Not forcasted to go that far inland.
Probably disrupt the flow some and weaken it but that's bath water between Cuba and south Fl.
Could easily strengthen again. Then again maybe not.
Just sit back and see what happens. 

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3190
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #66 on: September 08, 2017, 07:12:40 PM »
My station and the one at Ocala airport are identical at 29.99.
Curious to see how they will compare as the storm pass's by.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3080
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #67 on: September 08, 2017, 07:37:50 PM »
it will injest a bunch of dry air from those mountains and weaken more than forecast.
I've never heard that mountains make "dry air". Are you meaning to say that brief land fall will weaken it? If so, don't hold your breath...
Davis Wireless VP2 SHT31 24hr 67CFM FARS
RW Tipper w/ CoCoRaHS

Offline WxLover16

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 391
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #68 on: September 08, 2017, 08:00:54 PM »
it will injest a bunch of dry air from those mountains and weaken more than forecast.
I've never heard that mountains make "dry air". Are you meaning to say that brief land fall will weaken it? If so, don't hold your breath...

What I meant is that as the air downslopes (and dries) from the mountains around the flow of the hurricane and gets injested into Irma, maybe it will help weaken her a little. Then again as the above poster said, she will still be in bath water so who knows...
Davis Wireless VP2 SHT31 24hr 24CFM FARS

Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1085
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #69 on: September 08, 2017, 08:12:36 PM »
The new prediction indicates Category 5 again at landfall in the SW corner of FL.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3080
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #70 on: September 08, 2017, 08:28:12 PM »
it will injest a bunch of dry air from those mountains and weaken more than forecast.
I've never heard that mountains make "dry air". Are you meaning to say that brief land fall will weaken it? If so, don't hold your breath...

What I meant is that as the air downslopes (and dries) from the mountains around the flow of the hurricane and gets injested into Irma, maybe it will help weaken her a little. Then again as the above poster said, she will still be in bath water so who knows...
Downslope can indeed dry, as well as heat air (coincidental), but in this instance, non-existent. As all tropical systems, it's a heavy rainer at minimum, no drying that air. Drying can only come from the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere being pulled into the storm, something that's not going to happen.
Davis Wireless VP2 SHT31 24hr 67CFM FARS
RW Tipper w/ CoCoRaHS

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2862
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #71 on: September 08, 2017, 08:31:57 PM »
Currently back to C5 and may be stronger than before.

Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Offline Jasiu

  • Senior Contributor
  • ****
  • Posts: 170
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #72 on: September 08, 2017, 09:20:13 PM »
Keys will get it morning on Sunday. I really hope everybody got out - or is on their way.

Online ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4101
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #73 on: September 09, 2017, 08:23:30 AM »
Weakened over Cuba but could strengthen some as it moves north.  130 MPH this morning CAT 4.
Randy, the Aviator is my father in 1963 with his Indian bike

Offline SlowModem

  • Weather at the speed of dialup!
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6490
  • WX @ 26.4 kbs
    • Watts Bar Weather - Ten Mile, TN
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #74 on: September 09, 2017, 01:06:48 PM »
I hope everyone has left.  If you're staying, I hope you have adequate shelter.  it's going to be very ugly all day Sunday and part of the day Monday.  It's supposed to get to us Tuesday (although it will be much weaker).  Good luck to everyone.

This is a strange year that two tropical storms are predicted to come right over (plus we were in the path of totality for the eclipse).
« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 01:25:33 PM by SlowModem »
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

http://www.wattsbarweather.net


 

anything