Author Topic: Hurricane IRMA  (Read 3474 times)

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Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #25 on: September 05, 2017, 01:03:11 PM »
Two models take Irma to near 170Kts. The HMNI in ~6hours then slow decline, and the NVGI from ~6hrs out to ~3days...
170Kts is ~196Mph sustained, with of course higher gusts, for hours of it; nothing withstands those conditions.

For us Europeans, 170 kts do 88 m/s or 314 km/h.   :shock: :shock: :shock:

Heheh, I stand amended. And I learned the metric system ~6 decades ago in school, and from then on, but when we see that mostly obsolete US one in daily use...
Hurricane Irma's going to be a 'b----' in any measurement system.

Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2017, 02:08:09 PM »
We sit about 95 air miles from the north gulf coast.  In 1995, when Opal was trekking northward, I made a joke to a friend of mine in Milton, Florida, about how to build a hurricane-proof warehouse..build it 90 miles inland.  Opal must of heard me because she came into south Alabama and, seriously, brought her eye directly over my house.  She landed as a Cat-3, I believe.  We sustained damage everywhere and lost half of the roof on our warehouse...but the loss in trees was even more staggering.  No jokes allowed anymore.

The way those models are showing it running the length of Florida is very unnerving.  Running the length it will still be able to pull some energy in from the east and west coastal waters but hopefully the land will sap a bit of it's energy.  If it enters the nice, warm, balmy Gulf of Mexico all bets are off...it will indeed turn into a beast with, I believe, a mind of it's own.  Whatever that is in the SW corner of the Gulf, I believe, will help nudge Irma northward if/when she enters the Gulf.

I'm no educated weatherman, but I've seen many hurricanes, both wimps and monsters, come my way.  The projected path keeps it over water all the way to the Florida Straits without making landfall that could drain some of it's energy.  This is one to watch closely.

I'm no weatherman, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express several years ago...

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Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #27 on: September 05, 2017, 04:52:35 PM »
The 1800 UTC models are out (usual model disclaimer).
Several more in the current tracks ensemble are now taking Irma into the east  Gulf, where SST's remain anomalously high. Many are converging on a path up the middle of Florida.
The current intensity ensemble now has two models peaking Irma above 180Kts (+ 207Mph, 333Kph, 93M/s), one of them at 185Kts. That's well above an EF-5 tornado level of destruction, but sustained for perhaps hours, not minutes. Wondering about what kind of barometric pressure that would be, sub-900mb?

NHC 2PM AST update has Hurricane Irma at 185 mph, baro 926 mb (27.34 inches hg) and falling; the track/cone appears to have been nudged westward into the GOM (by Sun 0800h).

Hurricane Irma could be an apocalyptic event, in many places.  :-(

Then there's Jose.
And I'm watching little baby Invest 95, OOPS, Tropical Depression 13 (a growing sprout), down in the Bay of Campeche/SW GOM offshore of Tampico, MX, the models mostly have it do a loop and head across MX to the Pacific, one goes to a Cat 2, the rest just a TS. But you never know.... 

All this information brought to us by the factual scientific data gathering and analytical methods used throughout the rational world.

Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #28 on: September 05, 2017, 05:16:33 PM »
We sit about 95 air miles from the north gulf coast.  In 1995, when Opal was trekking northward, I made a joke to a friend of mine in Milton, Florida, about how to build a hurricane-proof warehouse..build it 90 miles inland.  Opal must of heard me because she came into south Alabama and, seriously, brought her eye directly over my house.  She landed as a Cat-3, I believe.  We sustained damage everywhere and lost half of the roof on our warehouse...but the loss in trees was even more staggering.  No jokes allowed anymore.
...


See the third pic down at the link below for what a marina drystack boat warehouse (actually, two of them were destroyed), on the GICW just off Aransas Bay, looks like after Category 4 Hurricane Harvey rolled over it (can't find a better pic link on my lousy connection). The same for many trees too, let alone all the homes and businesses.
And Hurricane Irma could be worse, much worse...

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/26/coastal-texas-countys-long-recovery-hurricane-harvey-begins-amid-turmo/

Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #29 on: September 05, 2017, 05:22:37 PM »
The 5PM 120hr position according to the NHC  is roughly the same as the 11AM. Mid/Southern Keys. Still no northward jog yet. The further west it gets the more worried I get.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #30 on: September 05, 2017, 05:35:57 PM »
The best loop of stadium effect I've ever seen. May take a moment to load. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=200&loop_speed_ms=80

Edit, darkness falling, just upped the loop to 200 images.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 05:53:03 PM by CW2274 »
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Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2017, 05:58:06 PM »
The 5PM 120hr position according to the NHC  is roughly the same as the 11AM. Mid/Southern Keys. Still no northward jog yet. The further west it gets the more worried I get.

At a slight time offset of course (6 hour later fcst), the Latitude is the same 24.4N, but Longitude is bumped 0.3 to the west, 81.5W, and wind is down 5Kt.
Hardly counts ATT, but official NHC fcst has been getting nudged westward for a while, adjusting for more of the models sliding west before the expected turn NW/N. Kinda looks like Irma's on rails overall.  :shock:

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 16.8N  58.4W  155 KT 180 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 17.2N  60.3W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.0W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 21.4N  74.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 22.7N  78.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 24.4N  81.2W  125 KT 145 MPH

------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 17.1N  59.8W  160 KT 185 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 17.6N  61.8W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 18.5N  64.6W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 19.5N  67.3W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 20.4N  70.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 21.6N  75.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 22.7N  79.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 24.4N  81.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2017, 07:45:54 PM »
The best loop of stadium effect I've ever seen. May take a moment to load. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=200&loop_speed_ms=80

Edit, darkness falling, just upped the loop to 200 images.
Can't wait till 16 becomes operational. Those images are outstanding.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2017, 08:22:46 PM »
The best loop of stadium effect I've ever seen. May take a moment to load. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=200&loop_speed_ms=80

Edit, darkness falling, just upped the loop to 200 images.
Can't wait till 16 becomes operational. Those images are outstanding.
The resolution is incredible. Waiting for daylight again, the visible loop to me has the most "wow" factor, especially at this stage of development.
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Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2017, 11:09:21 PM »
Hoollee Carp!
With the 11PM AST NHC main page update, there could be THREE hurricanes going in a couple of days.
Little TD 13 is growing down in the Bay of Campeche, may become Hurricane Katia, and may move to the east soon, into super-warm water. Irma and Jose just getting stronger too.

Offline hankster

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #35 on: September 06, 2017, 07:45:25 AM »
All the major forecast tracks have Irma staying off the east coast of FL and heading to the Carolinas. The official NHC track has it going up the middle of FL but it normally takes the NHC a run to catch up to the others. For FL sake, let's hope it continues the eastward trend.

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« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 07:47:13 AM by hankster »

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #36 on: September 06, 2017, 12:00:30 PM »
It is time to start planning here in East Carolina. This latest turn is very dangerous for us. I am looking at going over towards possibly as far as Greenville SC, or up towards High Point, or even the mountains or west side of VA if needed. Anyone have any advice on locations to get to from coastal carolina?

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #37 on: September 06, 2017, 12:06:02 PM »
Asheville?

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Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #38 on: September 06, 2017, 12:40:50 PM »
I keep hearing 'media' people, newsreaders, 'reporters', even TV meteorologists, refer to Hurricane Irma as having winds UP TO 185mph. I hate to quibble, but this is how a nation is dumbed down, a bit at a time.
No, you cretins, NOAA/NHC reports and discussions for some time have been stating that Irma's "sustained winds" are 185mph.
This means that the ongoing, steady state, base wind speed is just that, 185mph.
This also means that Irma is "having" inevitable wind gusts within the core area that are reaching well above, "UP TO", 200mph, perhaps even 225mph+. Since the force relationship to wind speed is expressed logarithmically, this means that the destruction will be unimaginable.

IOW, given current tracks and intensities, it's buh bye Miami, Daytona, Savanna, Charleston, et al.

Offline SoMDWx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #39 on: September 06, 2017, 12:55:05 PM »
ease up....geez #-o
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #40 on: September 06, 2017, 03:37:40 PM »
It is time to start planning here in East Carolina. This latest turn is very dangerous for us. I am looking at going over towards possibly as far as Greenville SC, or up towards High Point, or even the mountains or west side of VA if needed. Anyone have any advice on locations to get to from coastal carolina?
In 1984 my family and I rode out Diana in your exact neighborhood. Even if Irma comes ashore at New River, all you'll have to worry about is wind and rain (not that that's not enough...) but IMHO your too far inland to worry about storm surge. Of course how long you're without power and drinking water in this scenario.........
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Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2017, 04:17:44 PM »
Been a huge jump east for the official track from last night at 11.
Curious to see what the 5PM  forecast is.
Still  4 days out so corrections either way will be huge.
Maybe we'll get lucky, with exception of the poor island folks who have suffered so far, that it will turn out to sea.

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2017, 04:43:53 PM »
It is time to start planning here in East Carolina. This latest turn is very dangerous for us. I am looking at going over towards possibly as far as Greenville SC, or up towards High Point, or even the mountains or west side of VA if needed. Anyone have any advice on locations to get to from coastal carolina?
In 1984 my family and I rode out Diana in your exact neighborhood. Even if Irma comes ashore at New River, all you'll have to worry about is wind and rain (not that that's not enough...) but IMHO your too far inland to worry about storm surge. Of course how long you're without power and drinking water in this scenario.........
I've ridden out most of the storms since Bertha in 96, but this one is a storm I don't want to chance if it is coming here, which right now, it may be a problem for the GA / SC line and move inland. The major models are going that way, but I'm still nervous.

Offline hankster

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #43 on: September 06, 2017, 05:13:42 PM »
Latest from the NHC moves the track a bit west for what could be a direct hit on Miami with wind speeds around 145MPH.

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Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #44 on: September 06, 2017, 05:21:54 PM »
Yep, nudged just a bit west.
Sometime early Monday morning it should be directly east of me in the vicinity of Daytona. Hopefully well off shore.
C'mon baby move east.

Offline Jasiu

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #45 on: September 06, 2017, 06:07:11 PM »
It's now a trifecta...


Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #46 on: September 06, 2017, 06:43:00 PM »
I remember something like 15 years or so ago there were 4 full fledged hurricanes, all in the Atlantic, none in the Gulf. Kinda tough to do, they don't particularly care to share environment.
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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #47 on: September 07, 2017, 08:19:31 AM »
Morning runs still shoving the storm into the GA/SC area.


Offline DaleReid

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #48 on: September 07, 2017, 09:28:25 AM »
I've been scanning this thread, along with doing some google 'research' along with just asking some meteorologists I know but haven't gotten an answer.  Is there someone here who has a link or explanation as to:

Despite a relatively straight track for over a week, the models predict a very sudden change in the track of Hurricane Irma as it gets just South of Florida.  What does the modelling software take into account to cause this shift in direction?

I can't believe that having smashed a few tiny islands that going along Cuba can alter the course.  Is it less energy picked up from the warm water along with moisture being denied by the landmass of Cuba?  If it stays further from Cuba it still makes this dramatic turn.

Has anyone seen an explanation for this, or what the real cause is?  (one layperson's opinion was it it was 'bouncing' off Cuba, which made me not trust his scientific background too much.

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Offline DaleReid

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #49 on: September 07, 2017, 09:31:30 AM »
When we had the luxury of visiting St. Thomas a few decades ago we took a tour of one of the other islands and saw a leeward bay called Hurricane Bay.  Some protection, I'm sure, but not a good place to be during a big storm, either.

What does the US Coast Guard and Navy do with their big boats during such times?  And what about those ships which are in dry dock or retrofit and cannot move under their own power, such as in Newport News, etc. when a hurricane hits?  I'd think that even tied up there would be a lot of force on the tie down points when an aircraft carrier gets lifted by a storm surge or blow sideways into the dock by 100 mph winds.

Is anyone from a branch of the wet services that knows or been through one?
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