Author Topic: Hurricane IRMA  (Read 3543 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Stratocaster

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 37
Hurricane IRMA
« on: September 03, 2017, 03:54:55 PM »
This looks to be a beast of a storm, and has been making a beeline for the NE corner of the Lesser Antilles for a few days now.

The big question (as always) is "when will it turn"? Just a few degrees while in the southern latitudes makes a big difference as it heads north.

I am personally watching very closely, as we live in Nassau, Bahamas, and we are just now fully recovered from the direct hit by Cat 4 Matthew last October. Where we live, the NE eyewall went right over us.

For now, we will follow the advice "Hope for the best but prepare for the worst".
Mike
WU Station ID INEWPROV18
Nassau, Bahamas

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3007
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2017, 03:59:56 PM »
For now, we will follow the advice "Hope for the best but prepare for the worst".
Smart. Best way not to thin the gene pool. ;)
Davis Wireless VP2 SHT31 24hr 67CFM FARS
RW Tipper w/ CoCoRaHS

Offline Jstx

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 128
  • Baby the Rain Must Fall
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2017, 06:07:45 PM »
Irma's just part of the story.
That little low pressure wave/blip hanging around in the SW GOM to the Bay of Campeche just merited an NHC bump up to having some development potential soon, as it moves to the NW (look out Rio Grande Valley & Corpus and ?).

And that proto-depression with a large potential for development creeping along in Harvey’s footsteps the last few days, way out in the Atlantic, continues to have very good odds of becoming ‘something’ big too.

The official hurricane season is barely half over and shows more than normal activity, of course it could also continue into Dec and Jan too, like some recently.
Fun times…no such thing as climate change though... :twisted:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3129
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2017, 08:37:10 PM »
Definitely keeping an eye, ( pun intended) on Irma. Some models have it coming right up to the Florida coast then turning north.
Next weekend we'll know for sure.
I might even fill up the gas cans tomorrow for the genny. After what we saw with Harvey there will probably be panic buying here. Hey if it pass's by just fill up the cars.

Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 435
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2017, 10:39:32 PM »
Still a week to go for peak hurricane season.


Offline DJFaninTN

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2017, 02:13:45 AM »
my bet is that this one ends up in the gulf (which I hate). need to stock up on some supplies tomorrow .. just in case.

Offline Jstx

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 128
  • Baby the Rain Must Fall
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2017, 09:57:51 AM »
Irma's starting to look a bit like Andrew. Irma's track has now changed considerably from earlier when it was plotted to just sweep up well offshore the Atlantic shore.
Now it looks like there's a good chance it goes through the Cuban Strait to the Gulf, or even crosses S. Florida and then enters the GOM, all as a "major" cyclone (Category 3 or above).
And there's another hi-prob proto-cyclone brewing behind it a week or so. Plus that little 'thing' in the SW GOM/Bay of Campeche that's been cooking too.
Batten down the hatches and hang on...

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

.


Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 435
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2017, 10:09:27 AM »
This morning's ensembles from the Euro and GFS.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]


Offline Glenn

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 104
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2017, 03:00:34 PM »
Wow, rights towards FLA. We spent a lot of time in Clearwater. Hoping for the best wherever this one lands.
Acurite 5 in 1 Pro+
Southern VT
Connecticut

Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 435
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2017, 04:06:51 PM »
How about some 4pm spaghetti?

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3129
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2017, 05:26:13 PM »
Not much difference in the 11AM 120hr position and 5PM 120hr position. Really don't want this thing to get into the Gulf.
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 05:29:53 PM by ocala »

Offline Old Tele man

  • Singing in the rain...
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 997
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2017, 06:43:27 PM »
Those tracks illustrate *why* so many sailing ships "went down" along the Caribbean banks and eastern southern USA coasts.
• SYS: Davis VP2/WL-IP & Envoy8X/WL-USB
• CWOP: DW6988 - 2 miles NNE of Cortaro, AZ
• WU - KAZTUCSO202, Countryside

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3007
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2017, 07:04:50 PM »
Those tracks illustrate *why* so many sailing ships "went down" along the Caribbean banks and eastern southern USA coasts.
Silly man, nothing to do with it. UFO's under 12,000 ft of water in the "triangle"..... :-"
Davis Wireless VP2 SHT31 24hr 67CFM FARS
RW Tipper w/ CoCoRaHS

Offline Jstx

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 128
  • Baby the Rain Must Fall
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2017, 07:22:14 PM »
Not to freak y'all out, but here are three spaghetti ensemble model* current looks that include what is probably the worst case eventuality.
1. The HMNI model (an extrapolation of the HMON, my favorites) takes Irma into the Gulf of Mexico as a Cat 4+. This wouldn't be good for S. FL, the Keys, or Cuba.

2. The HMNI intensity model has Irma ramping up to a Category 5+ once in the Gulf, with sustained winds near 160Kts, 184Mph (Cat 6?...).

3. The GDF/Canadian ensemble tracks that take Irma through the South and past KY, TN, IN, OH, MI, PA, and into Canada and possibly the NE. There was another cyclone that hit the Gulf Coast and all the way to Montreal and NE some years back. Of course billions of tons of precipitation will go along.

* All the models have a disclaimer that the most current NHC forecasts supersede all, as the official position/view.

(PS: Wish the forum commenting warned of 'too large file sizes' before the Preview, I lost my former better written comment (and time) when I flubbed the error from using larger png files instead of small jpgs, grrrr. I usually take a 'copy', but didn't; that's always when there's a glitch.)

Three spaghetti ensemble images:
1. The current spaghetti ensemble, showing the HMNI entering the GOM:
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

2. The Intensity spaghetti ensemble, with the HMNI going to near 160Kts after Irma enters the GOM:
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

3. The spaghetti ensemble showing tracks through the S and mid-section, Great Lakes, Canada, NE:
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 07:27:18 PM by Jstx »

Offline Old Tele man

  • Singing in the rain...
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 997
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2017, 08:26:26 PM »
Those tracks illustrate *why* so many sailing ships "went down" along the Caribbean banks and eastern southern USA coasts.
Silly man, nothing to do with it. UFO's under 12,000 ft of water in the "triangle"..... :-"
Somebody has watched the movie, "The ABYSS," too many times  \:D/
• SYS: Davis VP2/WL-IP & Envoy8X/WL-USB
• CWOP: DW6988 - 2 miles NNE of Cortaro, AZ
• WU - KAZTUCSO202, Countryside

Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 435
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2017, 08:27:33 PM »
Interesting graphic showing landfall probabilities from 98 12z models of the EURO/GFS/CMC.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 435
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2017, 08:39:47 PM »
Let's hope the HWRF is wrong.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Offline Jstx

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 128
  • Baby the Rain Must Fall
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2017, 09:02:08 PM »
Let's hope the HWRF is wrong.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]


OMFG, looks worse than Harvey did at landfall:

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 435
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2017, 10:41:32 PM »
Latest 10pm runs.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 435
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2017, 07:54:09 AM »
Latest run. a 50 mile shift west puts Irma coming on shore in Naples.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2828
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2017, 07:57:51 AM »
C5 with 175 mile winds
Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Offline Stratocaster

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 37
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #21 on: September 05, 2017, 08:02:01 AM »
This is going to be catastrophic for Antigua, St Kitts & Nevis and Puerto Rico.
Mike
WU Station ID INEWPROV18
Nassau, Bahamas

Offline Jstx

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 128
  • Baby the Rain Must Fall
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2017, 10:49:19 AM »
Two models take Irma to near 170Kts. The HMNI in ~6hours then slow decline, and the NVGI from ~6hrs out to ~3days...
170Kts is ~196Mph sustained, with of course higher gusts, for hours of it; nothing withstands those conditions.

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2828
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2017, 11:24:30 AM »
And Jose is now following.



Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Offline weatherc

  • Senior Contributor
  • ****
  • Posts: 271
Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2017, 12:14:23 PM »
Two models take Irma to near 170Kts. The HMNI in ~6hours then slow decline, and the NVGI from ~6hrs out to ~3days...
170Kts is ~196Mph sustained, with of course higher gusts, for hours of it; nothing withstands those conditions.

For us Europeans, 170 kts do 88 m/s or 314 km/h.   :shock: :shock: :shock: