Author Topic: Hurricane Matthew  (Read 7037 times)

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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #25 on: October 05, 2016, 07:15:04 AM »
The Euro, which has done a pretty good job with the track that the hurricane has taken so far (I usually try to give love to the American models, but the Euro has been better this time around), definitely is showing a trend with it staying away from landfall in the Carolinas - that's a great sign for that area.

This model still has a landfall in Florida though, which is something to keep an eye on to see if it changes. One thing that is being underestimated at least for the Carolinas is rainfall. That hurricane will be close enough to drop plenty of rain - could see more than 10 inches on the South Carolina coast.
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Offline hankster

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #26 on: October 05, 2016, 07:24:54 AM »
Crazy paths that are being shown now. Both the GFS and Euro has Matthew looping back south once he hits the Carolinas. GFS has it looping back crossing FL with the Euro looping back and hanging around the Bahamas.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #27 on: October 05, 2016, 08:04:18 AM »
The Euro, which has done a pretty good job with the track that the hurricane has taken so far (I usually try to give love to the American models, but the Euro has been better this time around), definitely is showing a trend with it staying away from landfall in the Carolinas - that's a great sign for that area.

This model still has a landfall in Florida though, which is something to keep an eye on to see if it changes. One thing that is being underestimated at least for the Carolinas is rainfall. That hurricane will be close enough to drop plenty of rain - could see more than 10 inches on the South Carolina coast.

Great assessment. I agree. NC would have been in dire straights if the original track had held. I'm afraid a lot of death would have occurred from flooding.

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #28 on: October 05, 2016, 08:09:07 AM »
Crazy paths that are being shown now. Both the GFS and Euro has Matthew looping back south once he hits the Carolinas. GFS has it looping back crossing FL with the Euro looping back and hanging around the Bahamas.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

I think the Florida area has been well underestimated in the forecasts all along. Now with the latest runs showing this loop around and strike, I hope they get ready down there.

Offline Jáchym

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Online stevebrtx

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #30 on: October 05, 2016, 03:31:21 PM »
This one looks like a big ugly mystery wherever it decides to go. We'll pray for y'all and wait to see how it goes.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #31 on: October 05, 2016, 03:47:03 PM »
If the present track comes to fruition, and looking more likely with each run, I think getting a 1000+ miles of coastal raking certainly could be worse than somewhere taking a direct hit.
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Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #32 on: October 05, 2016, 09:24:01 PM »
I just boarded up the north and east side of the house. If  I have to I'll do the rest tomorrow.
Its basically riding the coast from Pt St Lucie to Jacksonville. I'm about 55 miles  from the coast so any westward jog could bring it pretty close.
Forecasted intensity is 130mph as it swings by so should be a breezy one.
Genny and cars are gassed up so bring it on.

Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #33 on: October 06, 2016, 06:50:40 AM »
All of you on the southeastern coast be careful, even a Cat1 one can be a killer.  It does look like Florida is going to catch the brunt of it.  One good (though small) thing I see right now is that the east side of Matthew will be mostly (we hope) blowing oceanward...maybe a 10mph difference but might mean the difference of a roof staying on or not.  That loop back south doesn't look so good for Micky Mouse.

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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #34 on: October 06, 2016, 07:34:57 AM »
I just boarded up the north and east side of the house. If  I have to I'll do the rest tomorrow.
Its basically riding the coast from Pt St Lucie to Jacksonville. I'm about 55 miles  from the coast so any westward jog could bring it pretty close.
Forecasted intensity is 130mph as it swings by so should be a breezy one.
Genny and cars are gassed up so bring it on.

Thoughts and prayers for you and your town! Luckily, it does look like the strongest winds will stay east of you, so maybe that will minimize some of the damage at least in your area. From Orlando to the beach might be a little rougher though. The Euro has the landfall right at Cape Canaveral.
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Offline CNYWeather

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #35 on: October 06, 2016, 09:45:01 AM »
Hoping for the best for all you guys in the path. I'll take 3 feet of lake effect snow to a hurricane.
Good luck guys!
Tony


Offline Cutty Sark Sailor

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #36 on: October 06, 2016, 10:53:19 AM »
 :-$
Removed Login requirement for 500 "Weather Tracks"...temporarily....
http://frankfortweather.us/wewamu/content/test2.html
27 hours, 27 minutes, 30 seconds of Weather Watchin' music
to supplement Matthew Waitin', Watchin', and Weatherin'....

Y'all Stay Safe, now. Y'hear?

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Offline W3DRM

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #37 on: October 06, 2016, 01:59:56 PM »
Does anyone know how NASA is preparing for Matthew? I would imagine they have already removed as much equipment as possible but I wonder how those huge Vehicle Assembly Buildings will handle the high winds of the storm? There were several rockets in position for launch as of week or so ago. Am wondering if they have been moved and placed inside buildings or simply moved off-site to protect them... Could be a very expensive storm for NASA.
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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #38 on: October 06, 2016, 02:32:17 PM »
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Online ValentineWeather

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #39 on: October 06, 2016, 02:36:25 PM »
:-$
Removed Login requirement for 500 "Weather Tracks"...temporarily....
http://frankfortweather.us/wewamu/content/test2.html
27 hours, 27 minutes, 30 seconds of Weather Watchin' music
to supplement Matthew Waitin', Watchin', and Weatherin'....

Y'all Stay Safe, now. Y'hear?

Mike

Nice collection. My favorite weather song is Conway Twitty - Rainy Night In Georgia ft. Sam Moore
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Offline Sooner Al

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #40 on: October 06, 2016, 03:04:36 PM »
FWIW NASA is also flying a Global Hawk for research into/around Matthew...

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #41 on: October 06, 2016, 03:28:13 PM »
FWIW NASA is also flying a Global Hawk for research into/around Matthew...
Wow, 55k to 65k ft. :eek: Sure gonna get a nice look at the tops of those storms in the CDO.
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Offline DanS

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #42 on: October 06, 2016, 05:12:40 PM »
Hoping for the best for all you guys in the path.

I second that. Now with that loop back in it's projected path it brings to mind what hurricane Ivan did back in 2004 and that would put many more in it's path.

Offline Jáchym

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #43 on: October 06, 2016, 09:05:03 PM »
Just saw some videos showing the impacts of it...
Just wanted to say I hope you guys are OK,  fortunately we don't have this here in Europe

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #44 on: October 06, 2016, 09:06:02 PM »
Just saw some videos showing the impacts of it...
Just wanted to say I hope you guys are OK,  fortunately we don't have this here in Europe

Pretty bad images and videos coming in from Cuba and the Bahamas from the storm's aftermath. Prayers to all of those who have been affected.  :-(
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Online ValentineWeather

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #45 on: October 06, 2016, 09:08:32 PM »
Death toll jumps to at least 260 reported killed in Haiti from Hurricane Matthew
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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #46 on: October 06, 2016, 09:15:00 PM »
Death toll jumps to at least 260 reported killed in Haiti from Hurricane Matthew

That's awful to hear. I'm afraid that number is only going to get much higher from here.  :-(

One interesting note. The European model has the eye of Matthew going a little farther inland than expect. That could help folks up the coast in Georgia and South Carolina at least on the wind damage side of things. Still expecting 110 mph + wind gust estimates on the Euro at Cape Canaveral.

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Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #47 on: October 06, 2016, 10:01:35 PM »
If that Euro pans out that puts the eye about 40 miles from me.

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #48 on: October 06, 2016, 10:25:50 PM »
If that Euro pans out that puts the eye about 40 miles from me.

Hopefully it will not.  8-) One of my best friends from college lives in Casselberry. Told him to get out of there!
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Offline W3DRM

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #49 on: October 07, 2016, 01:21:38 AM »
Ocala, here's a snapshot of your station taken at 2219PDT 10/6/2016. Looks like you still have some hours of rough weather ahead of you.


Stay safe!
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