Author Topic: Hurricane Ignacio Headed For British Columbia?  (Read 2192 times)

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Offline Harryca

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Hurricane Ignacio Headed For British Columbia?
« on: September 03, 2015, 04:49:59 PM »
While it's sure to degenerate into a TS or low when it gets into the colder waters of the Gulf of Alaska, it could still be a powerful storm for BC and possibly Alaska, according to the latest track and computer models.  Thoughts?

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/Hurricane-Ignacio?map=5day&MR=1

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/Hurricane-Ignacio?map=model

Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane Ignacio Headed For British Columbia?
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2015, 05:09:36 PM »
So far north, the only thing I'd worry about is rain. In no way will it have any tropical characteristics by landfall.
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Offline Harryca

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Re: Hurricane Ignacio Headed For British Columbia?
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2015, 12:31:44 AM »
So far north, the only thing I'd worry about is rain. In no way will it have any tropical characteristics by landfall.

I would agree with that and about what I would expect.  The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says so too.  The latest storm track from CPHC, has Ignacio making landfall on the 8th in BC.

From the latest forecast discussion:

IGNACIO HAS INDEED BEGUN TO MAKE IT/S ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD TURN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/11. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE ALONG LONGITUDE 170W WILL PICK UP IGNACIO AND DRIVE IT
NORTHWARD TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES AND GRADUALLY COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER
WESTERLIES WHICH WILL PROPEL IT QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CHILLY WATERS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND INCREASING BAROCLINIC
INFLUENCES MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AS IT MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON DAYS 2-3. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY DAY 3 WITH IGNACIO MOVING OVER SUB-20C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IGNACIO WILL WIND UP AS A GALE LOW NEAR THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA IN 5 DAYS.

FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND RADII FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WERE
COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 30.4N 163.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 32.0N 163.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 34.6N 164.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 37.4N 164.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 40.4N 164.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...MERGING WITH FRONT
 72H  07/0000Z 46.5N 161.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96H  08/0000Z 51.5N 146.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 54.9N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
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« Last Edit: September 04, 2015, 12:38:27 AM by Harryca »

Offline Harryca

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Re: Hurricane Ignacio Headed For British Columbia?
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2015, 05:41:07 AM »