Author Topic: Erika  (Read 2362 times)

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Offline ocala

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Erika
« on: August 25, 2015, 06:10:38 PM »
This may be one to keep an eye on. Pun intended.

Offline Dr Obbins

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Re: Erika
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2015, 08:55:29 PM »

Offline Harryca

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Re: Erika
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2015, 12:50:08 AM »
As TS Erika passes St Croix

You probably know it already.  Flash Flood Watch in effect until 12:00 EDT Friday.  I'm sure the people down there welcome the rain anyway since they are in a really bad drought.

Event: Flash Flood Watch 
Alert: ...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BRING FLOODING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
 
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
 
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
 
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RAINFALL FORECASTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUMS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THEIR
SOILS ARE SUPER SATURATED...THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IN THAT REGION. REGARDLESS OF THE ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND LAND SLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGH INTENSITY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS...WHICH
CAN OCCUR WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.
 
Target Area:
St Croix
 St.Thomas...St. John.. and Adjacent Islands
 
 

Offline Dr Obbins

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Re: Erika
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2015, 07:15:19 AM »
The airport recorded 1.8" which will help. Heading to Florida next.

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Erika
« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2015, 05:07:58 AM »
They've changed the path.  Batten down the hatches!
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Erika
« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2015, 09:01:29 AM »
That's gonna kill my daughter!!!  She's been dating a guy from Carabelle for the last couple of years and being as she's working during the week up here in Alabama she won't get to make down there for the storm.  As a father, being as she drives through a national forest (road debris) to get there and it *might* be dangerous otherwise, I can't say that I'm unhappy she'll be stuck up here. :grin:  Now, if it was me *I* would be fine down there.  ;) I know she'll miss being there for the storm, though, and be heading down there Friday to check everything out. 

It looks like they're predicting it to be a tropical storm all the way up the gulf coast until landfall.  That sounds good to me, hopefully it will bring rain to places that need it...rain without hurricane winds is nice though things can still get damaged and people killed if they're in the wrong place at the wrong time.  As we all know, you've got to respect the weather.

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Offline Dr Obbins

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Re: Erika
« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2015, 09:35:26 AM »
Yes, it doesn't look like it will be much of a threat when it makes landfall. I couldn't remember the last "real" hurricane to hit the USA. Looks like it was about 10 years ago.

"Hurricane Wilma was the last major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S., when it came ashore on October 24, 2005 near Cape Romano in southwestern Florida as a Category 3 storm; Wilma actually peaked as a Category 5 as it spun in the Caribbean Sea."

Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Erika
« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2015, 07:06:28 PM »
This has gotta be a different system up here in south Alabama.  Just got a good rain and forecasts for the next week is for mediocre chances of rain.  On Labor Day the Shriners hold the "World's Largest Peanut Boil" in Luverne.  They will sell $30-$50K of boiled and parched peanuts over the weekend with the proceeds going to help with transportation for children going to their burn clinic and other needs.  For years it seemed that when peanuts hulls were all over town and in people's cars...there's a hurricane close by.  That hasn't happened for several years now.  One year the panhandle was evacuated and the Shriners sold peanuts to the tourists that were evacuating...the hurricane changed direction and the Feds gave the "all clear" that evening and the tourists returned (and bought more peanuts).  Well, the hurricane turned around on itself and headed back this way....yep, the Shriners cleaned up again. ;)

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Offline Harryca

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Re: Erika
« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2015, 08:43:26 PM »
^ Yes, it is a different system.  What's left of Erika, is still playing around off the coast of Cuba.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/Invest-90?map=model

Offline ocala

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Re: Erika
« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2015, 09:34:45 PM »
The airport recorded 1.8" which will help. Heading to Florida next.
I see there was a 62 mph gust the other day with one of the squalls.

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Erika
« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2015, 01:33:17 AM »
The storm has petered out for now.  But the gulf is like bathwater and it could regain some strength and cause problems.  I wouldn't let my guard down yet.  I'm a looking for it get here around Thursday .  We could use some rain.
Greg Whitehead
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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Erika
« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2015, 08:02:56 AM »
Greg, it looks like the Caribbean and the Gulf are about the same temperature right now...within a degree or two of each other....mid-80's.  I don't anticipate much out of Erika...but, you never know.  She's moving slow.  The NHC hasn't ruled it as "gone and forgotten", either....



Code: [Select]
Tropical Weather Outlook Text


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Fred, located a few hundred miles
east-southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands in the far
eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Erika is
producing areas of heavy rain over portions of south Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba.  Although there are no signs of
redevelopment at this time, upper-level winds could become
marginally favorable for tropical cyclone formation over the next
day or so.  Regardless of this system's prospects for regeneration,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to spread
northwestward and then northward across Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico later today and Monday. Additional information on this
system can be found in marine forecasts and local forecast products
issued by the National Weather Service and the meteorological
service of Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

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Offline ocala

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Re: Erika
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2015, 10:26:08 AM »
If you look at the Key West radar you might be able to pick up some discernible spin.
That, or I am wishcasting. :-)
Well, after checking, pressure's are rising so I guess I'm seeing what I want to see.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2015, 10:33:23 AM by ocala »

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Erika
« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2015, 12:28:18 PM »
Tampa sure doesn't need anymore heavy rain.  :roll:
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Offline Harryca

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Re: Erika
« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2015, 12:35:32 AM »
Per NWS:

Quote
Remnants of Erika Soaking Florida

Erika may not technically be a Tropical Storm any more, but its remnants are soaking Florida in very heavy rain. Over four inches of rain has been reported in some areas. Flood Watches remain in effect in many areas. When encountering flooded roads, remember: Turn around, don't drown!


Flood warnings galore http://ucweather.org/stateadv.php?state=fl

 

anything