Author Topic: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?  (Read 1704 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4659
    • Fitzweather
Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« on: August 12, 2015, 10:32:35 AM »
Well we are approaching the peak of Hurricane season and ONLY 3 named storms have been used all season! Ana occurred in May with top winds of 60 mph, Bill in June with top winds of 60 mph, and Bill in July with top winds of 50 mph. Can anyone remember a season that has been quieter up to this point? And does anyone have a reason for this, like the strong el nino, or lower surface temps, too much shear etc?

Ana, Bill, and Claudette paths shown below.
Weather Software -> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, and GRLevel2.

Weather Station -> LaCrosse 328-2314 weather station.

Administrator- www.fitzweather.org

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2015, 03:43:10 PM »
I'm betting my money on El Nino.  Low tropical activity in the Atlantic is just one of the indicators that El Nino is getting stronger.  Another indicator that the affects of El Nino are at play here is high tropical activity in the Pacific and we are already seeing a lot this year.  There have been 8 named storms so far just in the Eastern Pacific and another should be forming in the next few days.  The Central and Western Pacific are also seeing a lot of tropical activity.

Edit:
How do El Ni�o and La Nina influence the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#HURRICANES
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 05:11:18 PM by Harryca »

Offline Dr Obbins

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1135
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2015, 07:26:33 PM »
It is OK by me.  :grin:

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3191
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2015, 05:29:02 AM »
1992 started slow with Andrew being the first storm of the year on or around  8-25. Not sure how it ended up though.

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2862
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2015, 06:30:23 AM »
Quote
It was a below average season in which 10 tropical depressions formed. Seven of the depressions attained tropical storm status, and four of these attained hurricane status. In addition, one tropical cyclone eventually attained major hurricane status,[7] which is below the 19812010 average of 2.7 per season.[1] The low amount of activity is partially attributed to weaker than normal tropical waves, the source for most North Atlantic tropical cyclones.[8] Only two hurricanes and one tropical storm made landfall during the season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season


Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4659
    • Fitzweather
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2015, 09:58:28 AM »
1992 started slow with Andrew being the first storm of the year on or around  8-25. Not sure how it ended up though.

Good point, and according to WeatherHost's link, it ended up being a not too far off normal for the year, despite no named storms until August.

I checked on the last major year for el nino (1997) to check it out (Ironically, the same unretired names are used). In that year, there were 8 named storms, 3 of which became a hurricane, and one (Erika) becoming a major hurricane. So it generally does seem that perhaps on el nino years, the Atlantic Basin hurricane season does generally tend to be below normal on activity.

1914 appears to be the slowest hurricane season on record in the Atlantic, with one named storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1914_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Weather Software -> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, and GRLevel2.

Weather Station -> LaCrosse 328-2314 weather station.

Administrator- www.fitzweather.org

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2015, 04:21:07 PM »
And by contrast, the 1992 Pacific Hurricane Season was the most active on record.

Quote
The 1992 Pacific hurricane season was the most active Pacific hurricane season on record. The most notable storm was Hurricane Iniki, which caused billions of dollars of damage to the Hawaiian Islands.

Total depressions: 30

Total storms: 27 (record high)

Hurricanes: 16 (record high, tied with 1990 and 2014)

Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 10 (record high)

Total fatalities: 22

Total damage; $1.85 billion (1992 USD

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Pacific_hurricane_season

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4659
    • Fitzweather
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2015, 10:00:16 AM »
And by contrast, the 1992 Pacific Hurricane Season was the most active on record.

Quote
The 1992 Pacific hurricane season was the most active Pacific hurricane season on record. The most notable storm was Hurricane Iniki, which caused billions of dollars of damage to the Hawaiian Islands.

Total depressions: 30

Total storms: 27 (record high)

Hurricanes: 16 (record high, tied with 1990 and 2014)

Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 10 (record high)

Total fatalities: 22

Total damage; $1.85 billion (1992 USD

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Pacific_hurricane_season

I didn't catch that; that is quite intriguing. I figure that could absolutely be attributed to warmer temperatures in the Pacific?
Weather Software -> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, and GRLevel2.

Weather Station -> LaCrosse 328-2314 weather station.

Administrator- www.fitzweather.org

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2015, 05:10:39 PM »
Yes, the warmer SST in the Pacific which are caused by a change in wind patterns.  A more detailed explanation can be found in the following link that I posted earlier.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#HURRICANES

Also, the following article also has a good explanation and some graphics that show the difference between El Nino and La Nina and the impacts on our weather.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/la-nina/38971

As stated earlier, we are already seeing the effects of El Nino with 8 named storms in the Eastern Pacific and only 3(?) in the Atlantic.  In addition, because of the change in wind patterns in the Atlantic, tropical waves are prevented from forming off the coast of Africa and Puerto Rico is experiencing its worst drought in history.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/puerto-rico-drought-el-nino-tourism-local-water-restrictions/51647356
« Last Edit: August 15, 2015, 05:14:30 PM by Harryca »

Offline Dr Obbins

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1135
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2015, 01:55:15 PM »

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2015, 03:55:25 PM »
^ Yeah, I remember Danny.  I was in New Orleans in 1985 when he came roaring through.  Even though he made landfall 240 miles to the west of New Orleans, we still felt the effects from it, high winds, flash flooding, and tornadoes.  It's ironic that he should show up again 30 years later right to the month.  Will he follow the same path as 1985?  I wonder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Danny_(1985)

Offline Dr Obbins

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1135
Re: Near Record Low Activity in Atlantic?
« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2015, 07:25:40 PM »
Well this time it is forming further east, but could end up on the same track. Just as long as it misses St.Croix. ;) My wife is currently there and I should be moved with in a month.

 

anything