Topic: Two US Landfalls Predicted; East Coast at Risk

[Harryca]

Hurricane season officially starts tomorrow (May 15) for the Eastern Pacific.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014: Two US Landfalls Predicted; East Coast at Risk

Following a season with the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to follow suit as a below-normal hurricane season.

With roughly 10 named tropical storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes predicted for the Atlantic Basin this season, AccuWeather.com's long-range forecasting team anticipates two storms, either tropical storms or hurricanes, to make landfall in the United States.

Rest of article: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-2014/26660844?partner=accuweather

[Farmtalk]

I can see how forecasters might predict warmer ocean water temperatures, or look at the position of highs and lows to forecast to a certain degree, but do you have any idea how they forecast how many land-falling hurricanes the US will experience? I've never been able to figure that out.

[ocala]

I can see how forecasters might predict warmer ocean water temperatures, or look at the position of highs and lows to forecast to a certain degree, but do you have any idea how they forecast how many land-falling hurricanes the US will experience? I've never been able to figure that out.

It's not even close to an exact science so I don't know why they even put out a land falling forecast. I think insurance companies throw money there way so they can scare the public.
Seriously, I've seen enough blown 24 hour forecasts in my time as has everyone else. How can they predict land falling TS months in advance??
Accuweather has no business even putting out a forecast like that.

[Farmtalk]

Accuweather has no business even putting out a forecast like that.

Hey that 45 day forecast is better than the Farmer's Alamanac!!!!