Here's NE Oklahoma HWO as of 1:25PM CDT...
FLUS44 KTSA 241825
HWOTSA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
125 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
125 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
..OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...DANGEROUS FLOODING ONGOING...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
DISCUSSION...
A WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE IS EXPECTED UNFOLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TH WEATHER PATTERN IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG OR
VIOLENT TORNADOES...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY. FORECAST
WIND PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUING LATE INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING
ISSUES.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A HIGH-END SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR RESCUE AND RECOVERY
EFFORTS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BRING MORE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
STORMS AFTER THAT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. ONGOING RIVER
FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
Scary scary stuff. I'm leaving work early since I live with my mother to help take care of her.
Currently, the MUCAPE is about 2000, but forecast to go to about 5200 by 6pm, the LI right now is -4, but forecast is for -14 later this evening. The helicity forecast for 10pm at 0-1km is 13. That ain't playin' around.
