Topic: 5 day outlook from NHC

[ocala]

Possible sub tropical storm off Jacksonville later in the week.

[Harryca]

NHC has started putting out outlooks already.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
 TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
 the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
 some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
 slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
 issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
 * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
 * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

 Forecaster Brennan

[Farmtalk]

You guys probably know way more about this kind of weather than I do, but during the Spring time, isn't it a little unique to see tropical storms form due to the low ocean temperatures and wind shear that is usually present during the time period?

[ocala]

Maybe Harry can explain it better then me but this particular system is a cold core low while tropical systems are warm core. That's why above I described it as a sub tropical storm. This page briefly explains it a little better.
http://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/241/what-are-the-key-differences-between-warm-and-cold-core-cyclones

[Harryca]

Good article here that explains it pretty well what may or may not be going on with this system a lot better than I could.

http://hurricanetrack.com/