Author Topic: Hurricane Matthew  (Read 7002 times)

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Offline Farmtalk

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Hurricane Matthew
« on: October 03, 2016, 10:08:25 AM »
Might be a close call for the folks in the southeast this weekend. The current advisory has that monster of a hurricane making a sharp right turn just before moving into the area, and so therefore staying off the coast. The Euro has it close enough to where rainfall on the coast there in North Carolina and South Carolina could see 4-6" of rain - wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane watch issued for the coastline just to play it safe.

Another disturbance is trying to form to the east of Matthew. Likely wouldn't make landfall, but another name isn't out of the question.

I feel bad for the islanders in Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, and Cuba....
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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2016, 12:29:45 PM »
Something to keep an eye on (pun intended). I think the European model is underestimating the strength of that area of high pressure over the Atlantic coast. I would not be surprised to see the NHC's next few advisories inch closer and closer to the coast.
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Offline Cutty Sark Sailor

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2016, 02:54:37 PM »
...and there's disturbance about 400-500 mi NE of Matthew, with 50% cyclone chance, heading on possible collision course with Matt... doing some basic experimental web tracking at
http://frankfortweather.us/700rad.php  :roll:

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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2016, 03:12:04 PM »
...and there's disturbance about 400-500 mi NE of Matthew, with 50% cyclone chance, heading on possible collision course with Matt... doing some basic experimental web tracking at
http://frankfortweather.us/700rad.php  :roll:

Looking great! Is that with WSV3? I've bookmarked it to check up on it during the next few days!  8-)

The new Euro run is beginning to shift west with the GFS. It's not showing a landfall, but the eye stays parallel about 50 miles off the coast. That's close enough to have significant impacts nonetheless.
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Offline tbrasel

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2016, 03:31:31 PM »
I have noticed today's 12z NAVGEM .5 deg has it sitting on-top of Tampa Bay Florida in about 96 hours or 12Z Fri. All models have trended westward over the past 48 to 72 hours when viewing model comparisons.
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Offline Cutty Sark Sailor

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2016, 03:48:46 PM »
@ Farmtalk..
Yes... the 911/EOC (Skyalert) Version, hence the partial satellite image. on mid-range HP tower WIN 8.1 --  Other 2 'radar' pages are Core Version ... I don't run 'em 24/7 -- only if something interesting in Central KY, Colorado Front Range, or other.... the stream display on all is a lash-up of "Sparkocam" live screen  through Webcam7 Pro server. The Core versions are on ancient HP towers upgraded to Win7... limited by my 'upload' restrictions, so not so smooth on web, but great locally,.. ... pretty much satisfy my short-range thinkin'...

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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2016, 05:01:35 PM »
I'm starting to get very concerned. The models are also having a hard time and are starting to spread out. The system may very well end up in South Carolina if the trend continues. If it comes here, (ENC) we are in deep poo poo, since the ground is so wet, I don't know how the trees or the rivers will stand it.

Offline hankster

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2016, 05:09:57 PM »
State of Emergency just declared in the state of Florida.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2016, 05:29:57 PM »
If it comes here, (ENC) we are in deep poo poo, since the ground is so wet, I don't know how the trees or the rivers will stand it.
I'm vacationing at Topsail next summer, hopefully.... 8-[
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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2016, 08:21:37 PM »
Take a look at the spread in the latest models. Shocking...

You have the SHIP models safely off the coastline, but then you have the UKMET group of models running into FL and then up into SC, and in the middle you have the EURO and the US. How do you know what to go with?

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2016, 08:38:18 PM »
These are even more updated. No consistency.


Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2016, 08:43:11 PM »
Take a look at the spread in the latest models. Shocking...
How do you know what to go with?
Ha, that's just it, you don't. As always, prepare and watch.
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Offline Cutty Sark Sailor

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2016, 08:51:25 PM »
Well. Port Au Prince went from 14 mph at 6:00 pm EDT to 117 mph at 8:00pm EDT,  and center is still about 100 miles SW

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Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2016, 09:02:36 PM »
Yep.
Could be an interesting week here.

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2016, 09:16:30 PM »
Take a look at the spread in the latest models. Shocking...
How do you know what to go with?
Ha, that's just it, you don't. As always, prepare and watch.

Can't go wrong with that logic. I try to just look at trends between models rather than see what each run is actually showing. For example, some models are showing a landfall in Florida now according to DoctorKnow's picture. I don't know if I would preach that as gospel to someone I knew yet, but it certainly can be determined that there is a westward trend for the center of the storm, which is getting closer and closer to Florida and the rest of the southeastern east coast.

Going to be very interesting to see what trends occur over the next 24 hours.
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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2016, 09:40:10 PM »
Take a look at the spread in the latest models. Shocking...
How do you know what to go with?
Ha, that's just it, you don't. As always, prepare and watch.

Can't go wrong with that logic. I try to just look at trends between models rather than see what each run is actually showing. For example, some models are showing a landfall in Florida now according to DoctorKnow's picture. I don't know if I would preach that as gospel to someone I knew yet, but it certainly can be determined that there is a westward trend for the center of the storm, which is getting closer and closer to Florida and the rest of the southeastern east coast.

Going to be very interesting to see what trends occur over the next 24 hours.

Yes, the trend is what is important, and it's been all west. The SHIP models were well offshore, and now it is right on the Carteret co coastline of NC. Eventually if this keeps up, South Carolina may win the prize, as I said above.

Offline ncpilot

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2016, 11:03:19 PM »
Greetings from Puckerville, I mean, from Wilmington, where at least a few model lines intersect...

Every update seems to move westward, sigh... made my shopping run earlier this evening...

The intensity models seem to converging downward, but if I'm seeing it right, looks like a couple of UKMET models are trending higher (at 5 days out), and isn't that model pretty good compared to the others?

In any case, an ugly weekend coming up...

Topsail is a great beach, used to go there a lot in my younger years while living in Durham...

Oh, for those that may not know about them, there are a bunch of great streaming cams along the NC coast at surfchex.com
Marc
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Offline ClaireAnderson

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2016, 02:17:33 AM »
I agree with you, the people of Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, and Cuba are in  great danger. The hurricane is of category 4.  But authorities are worried that it might become from category 4 to category 5.  Most people of Jamaica and Hatai has evacuated to secure locations. At least 2,000 of the people refused to evacuate from the red zone.  Even the US government has prepared two repose teams to help the civilians. The hurricane is expected to cause heavy rain, which might trigger life-threatening floods. The government is  concerned about the Hatai because the Hatai was hit with a 7 magnitude earthquake in 2010 and the infrastructure of the buildings in Hatai is weak. Two deaths are already reported by the media. These people are suffering right now. First they have to move to a shelter and now they are worried that they might even loss their home because of flood or storm.
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Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2016, 05:41:09 AM »
Hey Pilot. Long time no hear. :-)
Another slight shift west. May have to make my gas run for the genny earlier then planned.
Although the official track still keeps it offshore.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 05:43:38 AM by ocala »

Offline ncpilot

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2016, 11:11:14 AM »
Hey back... yeah, drifted away a bit over the years... but still occasionally check in.

Why oh why does the NHC continue to put that little H over my house???????  :shock:
Marc
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2016, 03:12:41 PM »
Why oh why does the NHC continue to put that little H over my house???????  :shock:
Better than an M........
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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2016, 03:16:02 PM »
Notice the latest model update. Some are really moving it out suddenly towards the east after a very close shave, or brief impact. I hope that trend continues, and this monster will cause minimal impacts... This is quite a change from just a few hours ago when everything was moving from Charleston to Wilmington and inland.

Offline ncpilot

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2016, 04:08:41 PM »
Ha ha, yeah, H better than M...

Latest UK model really shifted left, but a bit crazy after landfall, although a few other models push it out sharply to the East also. It will be interesting to see other models a bit later...

Nobody on southeast coast is safe...
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 04:10:38 PM by ncpilot »
Marc
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Offline hankster

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2016, 04:54:20 PM »
Fun times ahead... maybe. The Euro now shows it going into SC and then looping back south and crossing FL into the GOM. Not sure how long this track will be active but you can see it below.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Offline Dr Obbins

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2016, 07:07:21 PM »
Hey Marc, Do you have a website or WU? I moved from KY a year ago and have been missing my station especially at times like this. I live in an apartment here in Wilmington and have been looking for a reliable personal station to watch.

 

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