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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Tropical Weather => Topic started by: Farmtalk on October 03, 2016, 10:08:25 AM

Title: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 03, 2016, 10:08:25 AM
Might be a close call for the folks in the southeast this weekend. The current advisory has that monster of a hurricane making a sharp right turn just before moving into the area, and so therefore staying off the coast. The Euro has it close enough to where rainfall on the coast there in North Carolina and South Carolina could see 4-6" of rain - wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane watch issued for the coastline just to play it safe.

Another disturbance is trying to form to the east of Matthew. Likely wouldn't make landfall, but another name isn't out of the question.

I feel bad for the islanders in Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, and Cuba....
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 03, 2016, 12:29:45 PM
Something to keep an eye on (pun intended). I think the European model is underestimating the strength of that area of high pressure over the Atlantic coast. I would not be surprised to see the NHC's next few advisories inch closer and closer to the coast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Cutty Sark Sailor on October 03, 2016, 02:54:37 PM
...and there's disturbance about 400-500 mi NE of Matthew, with 50% cyclone chance, heading on possible collision course with Matt... doing some basic experimental web tracking at
http://frankfortweather.us/700rad.php  :roll:
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 03, 2016, 03:12:04 PM
...and there's disturbance about 400-500 mi NE of Matthew, with 50% cyclone chance, heading on possible collision course with Matt... doing some basic experimental web tracking at
http://frankfortweather.us/700rad.php  :roll:

Looking great! Is that with WSV3? I've bookmarked it to check up on it during the next few days!  8-)

The new Euro run is beginning to shift west with the GFS. It's not showing a landfall, but the eye stays parallel about 50 miles off the coast. That's close enough to have significant impacts nonetheless.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: tbrasel on October 03, 2016, 03:31:31 PM
I have noticed today's 12z NAVGEM .5 deg has it sitting on-top of Tampa Bay Florida in about 96 hours or 12Z Fri. All models have trended westward over the past 48 to 72 hours when viewing model comparisons.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Cutty Sark Sailor on October 03, 2016, 03:48:46 PM
@ Farmtalk..
Yes... the 911/EOC (Skyalert) Version, hence the partial satellite image. on mid-range HP tower WIN 8.1 --  Other 2 'radar' pages are Core Version ... I don't run 'em 24/7 -- only if something interesting in Central KY, Colorado Front Range, or other.... the stream display on all is a lash-up of "Sparkocam" live screen  through Webcam7 Pro server. The Core versions are on ancient HP towers upgraded to Win7... limited by my 'upload' restrictions, so not so smooth on web, but great locally,.. ... pretty much satisfy my short-range thinkin'...
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 03, 2016, 05:01:35 PM
I'm starting to get very concerned. The models are also having a hard time and are starting to spread out. The system may very well end up in South Carolina if the trend continues. If it comes here, (ENC) we are in deep poo poo, since the ground is so wet, I don't know how the trees or the rivers will stand it.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: hankster on October 03, 2016, 05:09:57 PM
State of Emergency just declared in the state of Florida.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 03, 2016, 05:29:57 PM
If it comes here, (ENC) we are in deep poo poo, since the ground is so wet, I don't know how the trees or the rivers will stand it.
I'm vacationing at Topsail next summer, hopefully.... 8-[
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 03, 2016, 08:21:37 PM
Take a look at the spread in the latest models. Shocking...

You have the SHIP models safely off the coastline, but then you have the UKMET group of models running into FL and then up into SC, and in the middle you have the EURO and the US. How do you know what to go with?
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 03, 2016, 08:38:18 PM
These are even more updated. No consistency.

(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 03, 2016, 08:43:11 PM
Take a look at the spread in the latest models. Shocking...
How do you know what to go with?
Ha, that's just it, you don't. As always, prepare and watch.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Cutty Sark Sailor on October 03, 2016, 08:51:25 PM
Well. Port Au Prince went from 14 mph at 6:00 pm EDT to 117 mph at 8:00pm EDT,  and center is still about 100± miles SW
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ocala on October 03, 2016, 09:02:36 PM
Yep.
Could be an interesting week here.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 03, 2016, 09:16:30 PM
Take a look at the spread in the latest models. Shocking...
How do you know what to go with?
Ha, that's just it, you don't. As always, prepare and watch.

Can't go wrong with that logic. I try to just look at trends between models rather than see what each run is actually showing. For example, some models are showing a landfall in Florida now according to DoctorKnow's picture. I don't know if I would preach that as gospel to someone I knew yet, but it certainly can be determined that there is a westward trend for the center of the storm, which is getting closer and closer to Florida and the rest of the southeastern east coast.

Going to be very interesting to see what trends occur over the next 24 hours.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 03, 2016, 09:40:10 PM
Take a look at the spread in the latest models. Shocking...
How do you know what to go with?
Ha, that's just it, you don't. As always, prepare and watch.

Can't go wrong with that logic. I try to just look at trends between models rather than see what each run is actually showing. For example, some models are showing a landfall in Florida now according to DoctorKnow's picture. I don't know if I would preach that as gospel to someone I knew yet, but it certainly can be determined that there is a westward trend for the center of the storm, which is getting closer and closer to Florida and the rest of the southeastern east coast.

Going to be very interesting to see what trends occur over the next 24 hours.

Yes, the trend is what is important, and it's been all west. The SHIP models were well offshore, and now it is right on the Carteret co coastline of NC. Eventually if this keeps up, South Carolina may win the prize, as I said above.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ncpilot on October 03, 2016, 11:03:19 PM
Greetings from Puckerville, I mean, from Wilmington, where at least a few model lines intersect...

Every update seems to move westward, sigh... made my shopping run earlier this evening...

The intensity models seem to converging downward, but if I'm seeing it right, looks like a couple of UKMET models are trending higher (at 5 days out), and isn't that model pretty good compared to the others?

In any case, an ugly weekend coming up...

Topsail is a great beach, used to go there a lot in my younger years while living in Durham...

Oh, for those that may not know about them, there are a bunch of great streaming cams along the NC coast at surfchex.com
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ClaireAnderson on October 04, 2016, 02:17:33 AM
I agree with you, the people of Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, and Cuba are in  great danger. The hurricane is of category 4.  But authorities are worried that it might become from category 4 to category 5.  Most people of Jamaica and Hatai has evacuated to secure locations. At least 2,000 of the people refused to evacuate from the red zone.  Even the US government has prepared two repose teams to help the civilians. The hurricane is expected to cause heavy rain, which might trigger life-threatening floods. The government is  concerned about the Hatai because the Hatai was hit with a 7 magnitude earthquake in 2010 and the infrastructure of the buildings in Hatai is weak. Two deaths are already reported by the media. These people are suffering right now. First they have to move to a shelter and now they are worried that they might even loss their home because of flood or storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ocala on October 04, 2016, 05:41:09 AM
Hey Pilot. Long time no hear. :-)
Another slight shift west. May have to make my gas run for the genny earlier then planned.
Although the official track still keeps it offshore.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ncpilot on October 04, 2016, 11:11:14 AM
Hey back... yeah, drifted away a bit over the years... but still occasionally check in.

Why oh why does the NHC continue to put that little H over my house???????  :shock:
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 04, 2016, 03:12:41 PM
Why oh why does the NHC continue to put that little H over my house???????  :shock:
Better than an M........
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 04, 2016, 03:16:02 PM
Notice the latest model update. Some are really moving it out suddenly towards the east after a very close shave, or brief impact. I hope that trend continues, and this monster will cause minimal impacts... This is quite a change from just a few hours ago when everything was moving from Charleston to Wilmington and inland.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ncpilot on October 04, 2016, 04:08:41 PM
Ha ha, yeah, H better than M...

Latest UK model really shifted left, but a bit crazy after landfall, although a few other models push it out sharply to the East also. It will be interesting to see other models a bit later...

Nobody on southeast coast is safe...
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: hankster on October 04, 2016, 04:54:20 PM
Fun times ahead... maybe. The Euro now shows it going into SC and then looping back south and crossing FL into the GOM. Not sure how long this track will be active but you can see it below.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Dr Obbins on October 04, 2016, 07:07:21 PM
Hey Marc, Do you have a website or WU? I moved from KY a year ago and have been missing my station especially at times like this. I live in an apartment here in Wilmington and have been looking for a reliable personal station to watch.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 05, 2016, 07:15:04 AM
The Euro, which has done a pretty good job with the track that the hurricane has taken so far (I usually try to give love to the American models, but the Euro has been better this time around), definitely is showing a trend with it staying away from landfall in the Carolinas - that's a great sign for that area.

This model still has a landfall in Florida though, which is something to keep an eye on to see if it changes. One thing that is being underestimated at least for the Carolinas is rainfall. That hurricane will be close enough to drop plenty of rain - could see more than 10 inches on the South Carolina coast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: hankster on October 05, 2016, 07:24:54 AM
Crazy paths that are being shown now. Both the GFS and Euro has Matthew looping back south once he hits the Carolinas. GFS has it looping back crossing FL with the Euro looping back and hanging around the Bahamas.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 05, 2016, 08:04:18 AM
The Euro, which has done a pretty good job with the track that the hurricane has taken so far (I usually try to give love to the American models, but the Euro has been better this time around), definitely is showing a trend with it staying away from landfall in the Carolinas - that's a great sign for that area.

This model still has a landfall in Florida though, which is something to keep an eye on to see if it changes. One thing that is being underestimated at least for the Carolinas is rainfall. That hurricane will be close enough to drop plenty of rain - could see more than 10 inches on the South Carolina coast.

Great assessment. I agree. NC would have been in dire straights if the original track had held. I'm afraid a lot of death would have occurred from flooding.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 05, 2016, 08:09:07 AM
Crazy paths that are being shown now. Both the GFS and Euro has Matthew looping back south once he hits the Carolinas. GFS has it looping back crossing FL with the Euro looping back and hanging around the Bahamas.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

I think the Florida area has been well underestimated in the forecasts all along. Now with the latest runs showing this loop around and strike, I hope they get ready down there.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 05, 2016, 09:39:05 AM
http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/the-european-forecast-model-already-kicking-americas-butt-just-improved/
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: stevebrtx on October 05, 2016, 03:31:21 PM
This one looks like a big ugly mystery wherever it decides to go. We'll pray for y'all and wait to see how it goes.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 05, 2016, 03:47:03 PM
If the present track comes to fruition, and looking more likely with each run, I think getting a 1000+ miles of coastal raking certainly could be worse than somewhere taking a direct hit.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ocala on October 05, 2016, 09:24:01 PM
I just boarded up the north and east side of the house. If  I have to I'll do the rest tomorrow.
Its basically riding the coast from Pt St Lucie to Jacksonville. I'm about 55 miles  from the coast so any westward jog could bring it pretty close.
Forecasted intensity is 130mph as it swings by so should be a breezy one.
Genny and cars are gassed up so bring it on.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Intheswamp on October 06, 2016, 06:50:40 AM
All of you on the southeastern coast be careful, even a Cat1 one can be a killer.  It does look like Florida is going to catch the brunt of it.  One good (though small) thing I see right now is that the east side of Matthew will be mostly (we hope) blowing oceanward...maybe a 10mph difference but might mean the difference of a roof staying on or not.  That loop back south doesn't look so good for Micky Mouse.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 06, 2016, 07:34:57 AM
I just boarded up the north and east side of the house. If  I have to I'll do the rest tomorrow.
Its basically riding the coast from Pt St Lucie to Jacksonville. I'm about 55 miles  from the coast so any westward jog could bring it pretty close.
Forecasted intensity is 130mph as it swings by so should be a breezy one.
Genny and cars are gassed up so bring it on.

Thoughts and prayers for you and your town! Luckily, it does look like the strongest winds will stay east of you, so maybe that will minimize some of the damage at least in your area. From Orlando to the beach might be a little rougher though. The Euro has the landfall right at Cape Canaveral.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CNYWeather on October 06, 2016, 09:45:01 AM
Hoping for the best for all you guys in the path. I'll take 3 feet of lake effect snow to a hurricane.
Good luck guys!
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Cutty Sark Sailor on October 06, 2016, 10:53:19 AM
 :-$
Removed Login requirement for 500 "Weather Tracks"...temporarily....
http://frankfortweather.us/wewamu/content/test2.html
27 hours, 27 minutes, 30 seconds of Weather Watchin' music
to supplement Matthew Waitin', Watchin', and Weatherin'....

Y'all Stay Safe, now. Y'hear?

Mike
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: W3DRM on October 06, 2016, 01:59:56 PM
Does anyone know how NASA is preparing for Matthew? I would imagine they have already removed as much equipment as possible but I wonder how those huge Vehicle Assembly Buildings will handle the high winds of the storm? There were several rockets in position for launch as of week or so ago. Am wondering if they have been moved and placed inside buildings or simply moved off-site to protect them... Could be a very expensive storm for NASA.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 06, 2016, 02:32:17 PM
CBS News has a pretty nice article just about that.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-matthew-florida-kennedy-space-center-braces-for-storm/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-matthew-florida-kennedy-space-center-braces-for-storm/)
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 06, 2016, 02:36:25 PM
:-$
Removed Login requirement for 500 "Weather Tracks"...temporarily....
http://frankfortweather.us/wewamu/content/test2.html
27 hours, 27 minutes, 30 seconds of Weather Watchin' music
to supplement Matthew Waitin', Watchin', and Weatherin'....

Y'all Stay Safe, now. Y'hear?

Mike

Nice collection. My favorite weather song is Conway Twitty - Rainy Night In Georgia ft. Sam Moore
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAA_LUCb0QE
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Sooner Al on October 06, 2016, 03:04:36 PM
FWIW NASA is also flying a Global Hawk for research into/around Matthew...

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 06, 2016, 03:28:13 PM
FWIW NASA is also flying a Global Hawk for research into/around Matthew...
Wow, 55k to 65k ft. :eek: Sure gonna get a nice look at the tops of those storms in the CDO.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DanS on October 06, 2016, 05:12:40 PM
Hoping for the best for all you guys in the path.

I second that. Now with that loop back in it's projected path it brings to mind what hurricane Ivan did back in 2004 and that would put many more in it's path.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 06, 2016, 09:05:03 PM
Just saw some videos showing the impacts of it...
Just wanted to say I hope you guys are OK,  fortunately we don't have this here in Europe
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 06, 2016, 09:06:02 PM
Just saw some videos showing the impacts of it...
Just wanted to say I hope you guys are OK,  fortunately we don't have this here in Europe

Pretty bad images and videos coming in from Cuba and the Bahamas from the storm's aftermath. Prayers to all of those who have been affected.  :-(
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 06, 2016, 09:08:32 PM
Death toll jumps to at least 260 reported killed in Haiti from Hurricane Matthew
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 06, 2016, 09:15:00 PM
Death toll jumps to at least 260 reported killed in Haiti from Hurricane Matthew

That's awful to hear. I'm afraid that number is only going to get much higher from here.  :-(

One interesting note. The European model has the eye of Matthew going a little farther inland than expect. That could help folks up the coast in Georgia and South Carolina at least on the wind damage side of things. Still expecting 110 mph + wind gust estimates on the Euro at Cape Canaveral.

Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ocala on October 06, 2016, 10:01:35 PM
If that Euro pans out that puts the eye about 40 miles from me.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 06, 2016, 10:25:50 PM
If that Euro pans out that puts the eye about 40 miles from me.

Hopefully it will not.  8-) One of my best friends from college lives in Casselberry. Told him to get out of there!
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: W3DRM on October 07, 2016, 01:21:38 AM
Ocala, here's a snapshot of your station taken at 2219PDT 10/6/2016. Looks like you still have some hours of rough weather ahead of you.


Stay safe!
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ClaireAnderson on October 07, 2016, 02:17:03 AM
NASA has prepared for the Hurricane Mathew and ride-out team of 139 people will stay at KSC throughout the closure period to make sure the facility's most important buildings are safe. The NASA officials say that after the hurricane pass, the damage will be assessed by the Damage Assessment and Recovery Team.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DanS on October 07, 2016, 03:03:34 AM
NASA has prepared for the Hurricane Mathew and ride-out team of 139 people will stay at KSC throughout the closure period to make sure the facility's most important buildings are safe. The NASA officials say that after the hurricane pass, the damage will be assessed by the Damage Assessment and Recovery Team.

Hmmm .... wonder how they will "make sure the buildings are safe" when roofs and walls are being ripped off. Hope it doesn't come to that of course but imagining people against a hurricane doesn't make sense to me.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 07, 2016, 08:56:22 AM
Has anyone had issues trying to get on the NHC or SPC's websites for the last 12 hours or so? I haven't been able to load either one.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: stevebrtx on October 07, 2016, 09:00:46 AM
Back in the 60's I was at the NASA Mississippi Test Facility on Saturn V and was on the ride out crew and I think we had one get within 24 hours but never came in. You just secure everything you can and hole up in the block houses. We rented a little house off a bayou off Pontchartrain and had a small boat. Pulled the boat, put it on the trailer, put it in the garage, put the TV and a few things in the boat and hoped for only rising water and that the roof would stay in place, fortunately never had to find out.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Intheswamp on October 07, 2016, 09:05:15 AM
Farmtalk, it looks like the NHC site is working ok to me....unless I'm missing something...??   Hurricane Matthew data shows to have been updated at 9:00am EDT 10/7/16.

Best wishes,
Ed
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 07, 2016, 09:15:16 AM
Farmtalk, it looks like the NHC site is working ok to me....unless I'm missing something...??   Hurricane Matthew data shows to have been updated at 9:00am EDT 10/7/16.

Best wishes,
Ed

Thank you! And strangely, it just popped back up for me.

Interestingly, the NHC is now forecasting for it to not make landfall. That's good news for a lot of people. :-)
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 07, 2016, 09:17:54 AM
My county is not in the cone, but we are being told by the local office of the NWS, that we can expect a foot of rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 07, 2016, 09:24:49 AM
My county is not in the cone, but we are being told by the local office of the NWS, that we can expect a foot of rain.

If it makes you feel better, the European model has much less than that forecast for Florida between now and Sunday night. I do NOT treat weather models like gospel, but just something to consider. That model has placed the heaviest rain over North Carolina actually as Matthew makes the big right hand turn and slows down.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ocala on October 07, 2016, 09:40:27 AM
Storm is 70 miles due east of me.
Pretty lame here actually. About an inch of rain so far and a gust to 30.
Surprised at the small amount of rain bands. I know the west side is the dry side but for a storm this developed and still over water I expected more deep convection.
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Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 07, 2016, 09:48:30 AM
Nice picture! I haven't seen many gusts over 80 mph, which is certainly very good. The eye wall has stayed offshore though, which has helped tremendously thus far in that department. Perhaps it will stay that way.  8-)
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Sooner Al on October 07, 2016, 10:05:52 AM
Back in the 60's I was at the NASA Mississippi Test Facility on Saturn V and was on the ride out crew and I think we had one get within 24 hours but never came in.

I was at the Stennis site in 1976 through early 1979. I worked for NAVOCEANO (US Naval Oceanographic Office) that moved there from the Washington DC area. I was one of the early arrivals.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: stevebrtx on October 07, 2016, 10:10:05 AM
We arrived a few days before Christmas '65, it was definitely an adventure.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: tstorm on October 07, 2016, 12:38:21 PM
Below is a nice site to see the radar and wind gusts overlayed

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=7&scroll_zoom=true&center=30.0976,-84.2651&basemap=ESRI%20Imagery&boundaries=false,true,false&hazard=true&hazard_type=severe&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=tempcur&obs_pop
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Dr Obbins on October 07, 2016, 04:06:42 PM
Better listen to this guy!
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 07, 2016, 04:40:22 PM
Not that he couldn't be right, but I think sensationalism like this is why so many folks tend to "blow off" weather events like this because some go through it, then don't have the common decency to prove him right.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 07, 2016, 05:40:55 PM
Not that he couldn't be right, but I think sensationalism like this is why so many folks tend to "blow off" weather events like this because some go through it, then don't have the common decency to prove him right.

I work in a newsroom. I do not like it actually - it has been good experience for me in learning what not to be. I don't want to be someone who sensationalizes and dramatizes events and situations. Most newsrooms do that now and to be that is very bothersome.

I found that video just hilarious. :lol:
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 07, 2016, 05:53:51 PM
Not that he couldn't be right, but I think sensationalism like this is why so many folks tend to "blow off" weather events like this because some go through it, then don't have the common decency to prove him right.
I found that video just hilarious. :lol:
Honestly, when he first started up, I thought it was going to be a bad joke/parody, then I realized it wasn't.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 07, 2016, 06:09:04 PM
I really don't like it when the media and politicians try to use "children" as their go-to for whatever they are trying to accomplish. It's sickening. The kids don't belong to them.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 07, 2016, 06:53:45 PM
I really don't like it when the media and politicians try to use "children" as their go-to for whatever they are trying to accomplish. It's sickening. The kids don't belong to them.
Good point. How many that are too young to truly comprehend the situation saw that, now will be petrified every time it rains in fear for their life.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Intheswamp on October 07, 2016, 09:40:38 PM
Just noting the "reach" of Hurricane Matthew... 

Using Google Earth I figure I'm currently about 350 miles west of Hurricane Matthew.  We had kind of a mackerel sky this morning and then some wispy clouds throughout the day.  The wind has been breezy with a high gust of 21mph today.  We've had no rain in the last nine days and none forecast for the next week...sunny skies.  But...

This is what the sky looked like at twilight today...
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/9/8553/30066339182_fbd9f000ef_k.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/MNRR9j)IMG_0046app2 (Custom) (https://flic.kr/p/MNRR9j) by Intheswamp (https://www.flickr.com/photos/71532701@N07/), on Flickr

Now, if you look at this image you can see the tendrils that were passing over us...the far western bands in south Alabama.  But, now, look all the way up north to Pennsylvania...Matthew has got some reach!
(https://c8.staticflickr.com/9/8413/29552066183_7ec7a6cfc5_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/M2q4Gt)Matthewtendrils (https://flic.kr/p/M2q4Gt) by Intheswamp (https://www.flickr.com/photos/71532701@N07/), on Flickr

Just an observation, FWIW. :)
Ed
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 07, 2016, 09:44:47 PM
I live in West Virginia and got a solid half inch of rain directly as a result of Matthew today. Talk about a reach!  :shock:
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: chief-david on October 08, 2016, 08:20:36 AM
So is it safe to say this has been overrated? Yes, issues.  But the language used was amazingly strong.
This has been a problem for a few years. It just makes todays short attention span world, not listen to them at all.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: stevebrtx on October 08, 2016, 08:32:55 AM
They got burned by Katrina when they didn't hype it as much and it turned into a huge disaster, so they over compensate and now everything is a cat 5 with death and destruction - until it doesn't happen, but that desensitizes people. Dan Rather many many years ago decried his industries downward spiral when he said in the 70's newsrooms became a profit center. After that everything changed and of course today "journalism" is dead, I never watch the news, only the weather. I read a fair amount, but selectively.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 08, 2016, 08:35:45 AM
I think the wind has been far overrated, but the rain may not have been. I'll update that after the storm moves off. If it's like the "experts" predict, most of the eastern side of NC will be flooded equal to or beyond Floyd in 1999. The dialog has been stronger than I can ever recall, other than the last major tornado outbreak.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: hankster on October 08, 2016, 10:02:38 AM
I don't feel the wind was over rated. If the storm would have taken a track 25 miles further west we would be singing a tune of praise. Just think, 25 miles made all the difference. How often is the path of "normal" weather predictions 25 miles off?
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 08, 2016, 11:14:04 AM
I don't feel the wind was over rated. If the storm would have taken a track 25 miles further west we would be singing a tune of praise. Just think, 25 miles made all the difference. How often is the path of "normal" weather predictions 25 miles off?

I think this is a fair assessment. The eye wall was where the serious winds were, and thankfully, for the most part, it is remained offshore.

I think the lesson from this storm is just not to depend solely on weather models for forecasting. I mean, 5 days ago, the NHC said that North Carolina was going to get slammed with wind, and though serious rainfall is occurring their, that's still different from significant wind damage.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of those affected. I lost my house back in June due to flooding - it's not an easy ride.

In conclusion, though I think media is quite annoying (I work in media unfortunately for now, so I see it every day), the storm turned out to still be serious, and I feel like lives were saved from the evacuations - even if it was due more to rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: W3DRM on October 08, 2016, 01:22:32 PM
I just noticed that Ocala PWS feed has stopped as of 9:15am yesterday, Oct 7. Hope he is okay and it's just a loss of power causing the outage.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: hankster on October 08, 2016, 02:42:03 PM
I think the lesson from this storm is just not to depend solely on weather models for forecasting. I mean, 5 days ago, the NHC said that North Carolina was going to get slammed with wind, and though serious rainfall is occurring their, that's still different from significant wind damage.

Let's remember that even the NHC states their track error 120 hours out is, on average, 175 miles. IMHO they were pretty accurate being Matthew was labout 50 miles from the coast of NC.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 08, 2016, 03:14:35 PM
I don't feel the wind was over rated. If the storm would have taken a track 25 miles further west we would be singing a tune of praise. Just think, 25 miles made all the difference. How often is the path of "normal" weather predictions 25 miles off?

That's true, and we have been so lucky that the storm has weakened considerably from what it was down near Jacksonville FL. Areas south and west of where I am have started becoming impassible. Some have even drowned now a few counties to my southwest. It has been raining heavy non stop in that area near Lumberton all day. Some totals are already over 12 inches.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 08, 2016, 04:51:41 PM
I just noticed that Ocala PWS feed has stopped as of 9:15am yesterday, Oct 7. Hope he is okay and it's just a loss of power causing the outage.

At first readings, Florida doesn't seem to have been impacted as bad as feared, I hope the same for Ocala!  8-)

I am very concerned about folks in North Carolina. Major flooding going on in the eastern half of state from Charlotte eastward. This from Brad Panovich, WCNC chief meteorologist.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: stevebrtx on October 08, 2016, 05:24:04 PM
I see they moved tonites NASCAR race in Charlotte to noon tomorrow due to the weather and I wouldn't bet on clearing by then.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 08, 2016, 05:36:18 PM
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 08, 2016, 05:52:18 PM
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.
Peak is around middle of Sept., but I wouldn't say this is unusual. Tropical systems tend to form more in the western Atlantic later in the season vice early on when tropical waves move off west Africa.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 08, 2016, 05:56:39 PM
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.

I'm sure its connected with planet warming with all the predictions being inaccurately predicated how global warm up would cause multiple typhoons and hurricanes. Oh wait the tropics have been very inactive last decade or so. I read where New England now hasn't had a hurricane in over 25 years.  :lol:
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ocala on October 08, 2016, 06:10:49 PM
I just noticed that Ocala PWS feed has stopped as of 9:15am yesterday, Oct 7. Hope he is okay and it's just a loss of power causing the outage.
Everything is fine down here. Lost power, cable, and internet yesterday and it just came back on this afternoon. Ended up with 1.45 for rain and just a 32 mph gust.
Now I get to pick up all the twigs in branches in the yard. :-(
Here's a snapshot of the barometer and hi wind speed for the event. Always like to see the weather graphically.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: WeatherHost on October 08, 2016, 06:18:48 PM
At first readings, Florida doesn't seem to have been impacted as bad as feared,

I hate that word!!  I hate it, I hate it, I HATE IT!!! 

First thing I would do if I could would be to totally banish it from the NOAA vocabulary and fire anyone who ever used it again in an official bulletin.


It should be reserved for badly embedded wisdom teeth.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 08, 2016, 06:20:58 PM
I just noticed that Ocala PWS feed has stopped as of 9:15am yesterday, Oct 7. Hope he is okay and it's just a loss of power causing the outage.
Everything is fine down here. Lost power, cable, and internet yesterday and it just came back on this afternoon. Ended up with 1.45 for rain and just a 32 mph gust.
Now I get to pick up all the twigs in branches in the yard. :-(
Here's a snapshot of the barometer and hi wind speed for the event. Always like to see the weather graphically.
Nice, pressure goes down, wind goes up. Love having a PWS.  UU
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: CW2274 on October 08, 2016, 06:22:49 PM
At first readings, Florida doesn't seem to have been impacted as bad as feared,

I hate that word!!  I hate it, I hate it, I HATE IT!!! 

First thing I would do if I could would be to totally banish it from the NOAA vocabulary and fire anyone who ever used it again in an official bulletin.


It should be reserved for badly embedded wisdom teeth.
I sense some baggage..... :-P
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 08, 2016, 06:44:37 PM
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.

I'm sure its connected with planet warming with all the predictions being inaccurately predicated how global warm up would cause multiple typhoons and hurricanes. Oh wait the tropics have been very inactive last decade or so. I read where New England now hasn't had a hurricane in over 25 years.  :lol:

For some people coming up with conspiracy theories is like a sport or way of wasting time ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: WeatherHost on October 08, 2016, 06:59:21 PM
I don't get into all that, but one thing I've noticed.  The Seasons in general seem to be moving.  It gets warmer later in the Spring and stays warmer later into Fall.  It's almost like Winter is becoming mid-December to mid/late-March and Summer is becoming mid-June to late September/early October.

Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 08, 2016, 08:03:00 PM
Please don't get me wrong, I of course know this is serious and I feel sorry for everyone who is affected by this, but... a friend of mine has just sent me this and I really had to laugh at it and thought I will share it with you too...
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: stevebrtx on October 08, 2016, 08:23:45 PM
Wherever you go the potential for disaster is near. Here in TX we have tornadoes, lightning and softball size hail, and on the coast hurricanes, in MX it was earthquakes and the cartels, so take your pick.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 08, 2016, 08:31:33 PM
We have floods
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: chief-david on October 08, 2016, 08:36:18 PM
Some people do not know this is Earth. And it is dangerous.  We are lucky to have survived this long.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 08, 2016, 08:40:43 PM
Some people do not know this is Earth. And it is dangerous.  We are lucky to have survived this long.

Elon Musk is obviously aware of that  :grin:
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: hankster on October 08, 2016, 08:46:37 PM
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.

Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Peak is Sept 10th.

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/peakofseason_sm.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 08, 2016, 09:45:34 PM
I just had 46 MPH. I don't know how the lights are on. Most TV stations are not transmitting.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: JupiterJoe on October 09, 2016, 02:21:41 AM
Here in Jupiter, FL, my station hit a 51mph gust. Power went out for two days. Thankfully, it came back on today.
We were lucky, it was tracking right for us, then jogged to the north and hit Grand Bahama Island instead. I'll take 51 mph over 130 mph any day.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Intheswamp on October 09, 2016, 08:56:47 AM
Here in Jupiter, FL, my station hit a 51mph gust. Power went out for two days. Thankfully, it came back on today.
We were lucky, it was tracking right for us, then jogged to the north and hit Grand Bahama Island instead. I'll take 51 mph over 130 mph any day.

^^^Definitely!!!!

Here's wishes for all of those affected for a fast and speedy recovery!!!  Hopefully the high waters in those areas will drain quickly!!!  Be safe!!!

Ed

Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 09, 2016, 10:28:50 AM
Good to hear that many on the forum were not hit too hard. I feel bad for the folks especially on the eastern side of North Carolina, as well as the southeast tip of North Carolina.

They received so much rain....  :-(
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 09, 2016, 10:30:23 AM
Do you know the actual values in inches or mm?
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 09, 2016, 10:36:16 AM
That's a lot of rain over a large area from Matthew.  :-(
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 09, 2016, 10:38:08 AM
These are 24 HOUR totals from Cumberland County, North Carolina yesterday.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: sundevil01010101 on October 09, 2016, 10:40:57 AM
Holy crap that's a lot of rain!!  All that's going somewhere which is definitely not good...
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 09, 2016, 10:43:11 AM
It's terrible in those areas. They've never seen this type of flooding before. It is basically up and down I-95 from one end of NC to the other and east.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 09, 2016, 10:45:46 AM
It's terrible in those areas. They've never seen this type of flooding before. It is basically up and down I-95 from one end of NC to the other and east.

Did you receive a lot of rain? You're on the east side of NC too!
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: sundevil01010101 on October 09, 2016, 10:47:10 AM
I don't know how you prepare for that kind of rain and flooding.. awful for those folks...
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 09, 2016, 11:04:02 AM
almost 15in at some places... in 24h... thats a lot....

Terry, I think in Arizona you dont have that much in total even in one decade right?
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 09, 2016, 11:08:11 AM
almost 15in at some places... in 24h... thats a lot....

Terry, I think in Arizona you dont have that much in total even in one decade right?

I live in a humid subtropical climate, and 15 inches is what I'd expect to see in 4 months!  :shock:
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Jáchym on October 09, 2016, 11:12:35 AM
Here we have around 500-750mm/yr, which is about 20 to 30 inches. But most of it is during summer, I remember days with "even" 4 inches/day.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 09, 2016, 11:58:43 AM
It's terrible in those areas. They've never seen this type of flooding before. It is basically up and down I-95 from one end of NC to the other and east.

Did you receive a lot of rain? You're on the east side of NC too!

Somewhere around 5 inches. NWS data from my station shows about 4.60. My station is down right now, (pole bent) and I shut off the feed last night and it isn't showing on the map, but I saw a rainfall list on the NWS Newport / Morehead City NC of totals. I think the wind was at least 70, maybe 80 last night.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201610091348-KMHX-NOUS42-PNSMHX (https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201610091348-KMHX-NOUS42-PNSMHX)

The flooding here isn't bad like it is inland. The river that is down from me does not flood like it does further inland because it is so wide.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ocala on October 09, 2016, 03:39:38 PM
Here in Jupiter, FL, my station hit a 51mph gust. Power went out for two days. Thankfully, it came back on today.
We were lucky, it was tracking right for us, then jogged to the north and hit Grand Bahama Island instead. I'll take 51 mph over 130 mph any day.
Was wondering how you did down there.
Good to hear things are getting back to normal.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: JupiterJoe on October 09, 2016, 09:32:41 PM
Thanks man! I think we all dodged a bullet! I'm glad to hear you guys up there were spared too. It was nice heavy wind for a while though. A nice stormy night. :)

Here in Jupiter, FL, my station hit a 51mph gust. Power went out for two days. Thankfully, it came back on today.
We were lucky, it was tracking right for us, then jogged to the north and hit Grand Bahama Island instead. I'll take 51 mph over 130 mph any day.
Was wondering how you did down there.
Good to hear things are getting back to normal.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Dr Obbins on October 09, 2016, 09:37:34 PM
Here is Wilmington, the eye passed over as a cat1. The heavy rain was on the leading edge and the higher winds on the backside. Not too much flooding here. A lot of 2"-3" diameter branches down and a few older trees over. Power was out all night. All in all it was not too bad.

(https://scontent.fphl2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14606506_1224125700985169_2241515658172492028_n.jpg?oh=accff6b95bab203ed84b1309764ba101&oe=58A600AD)
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: WeatherHost on October 10, 2016, 11:53:35 AM
OK, here's one you don't hear after every Hurricane:


Bomb squad detonates Civil War era cannon balls unearthed by Hurricane (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/10/10/bomb-squad-detonates-civil-war-era-cannon-balls-unearthed-hurricane/91848146/)
USA TODAY    - ‎51 minutes ago‎   
      
Bomb squads successfully detonated Civil War-era cannon balls uncovered on a beach near Charleston after Hurricane Matthew ripped through the area.
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: Farmtalk on October 12, 2016, 07:53:49 AM
A few rivers in North Carolina are just now reaching crest today.  :-(
Title: Re: Hurricane Matthew
Post by: ncpilot on October 23, 2016, 11:17:44 PM
Just a couple of days ago my weather radio was getting coastal flood warnings. Cape Fear river still at flood stage with high tide. But otherwise no hugely unusual flooding compared to normal high tide flooding in the known spots.

But holy crap, I've seen some really high tide levels (18+ years here)... I guess the eye was pretty close-the winds went fairly calm, then the backside hit, as was reported, they were worse. Only got about 3" rain at my house, 10 miles inland it jumped to probably 12" or so. Never lost power.

Usual "yard debris", but the last ice storm a few years back dropped more branches. Hard to say we dodged it, considering the massive loss from flooding inland. Water levels on the major flooded rivers were higher than from Floyd.

Not to argue the stay or leave decision (I'm in the stay camp), but there was a lady that left FL for NC, and her motel in NC was flooded--she had to evacuate a second time-to a shelter. That's some serious suck...