Author Topic: NWS forecast -- amazing detail  (Read 2314 times)

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Offline ncpilot

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NWS forecast -- amazing detail
« on: January 31, 2008, 10:12:40 AM »
Friday forecast for Wilmington, NC:

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 17 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Look at that precision!! We'll probably be sunny instead...  :roll:
Marc
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Offline up10ad N9RJH

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Re: NWS forecast -- amazing detail
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2008, 01:39:02 PM »
Seems they think they know WHEN it will or might rain.  Hey, if the chance of precipitation is 60% aren't they also saying that the chance of their forecast being correct is only 60%??  :lol:  Because 40% of the time it won't rain, and they will be wrong.   #-o
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Offline ncpilot

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Re: NWS forecast -- amazing detail
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2008, 02:50:03 PM »
Could be that the forecaster was just having some fun... once in a while they put some funny stuff there...  figuring hardly anyone reads it in detail...
Marc
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Offline WeatherBeacon

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Re: NWS forecast -- amazing detail
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2008, 12:03:21 AM »

Seems they think they know WHEN it will or might rain.  Hey, if the chance of precipitation is 60% aren't they also saying that the chance of their forecast being correct is only 60%??  :lol:  Because 40% of the time it won't rain, and they will be wrong.   #-o

That's the genius in stating the probability of precipitation ... they can't be wrong. If they say there's 60% chance of rain and it rains, they were right! =D> If they say there's a 60% chance of rain (40% chance of no rain) and it doesn't rain, guess what? -- they're still right! =D> Ya gotta love it.

Forecasts have become remarkably accurate in the past several years. It's uncanny. :-k Yesterday they put us under a winter storm watch for tonight and tomorrow saying that a storm would develop in the southern Mississippi valley and move up here before anything was even going on down there! With my untrained eye, I couldn't see anything on the radar or surface map. In fact, TX, LA, and AR were under a high. The only thing I could see that looked a little funky was a divergent jet streak in the jet stream far down south. Sure enough, late last night scattered light rain started showing up on the radar down in southern TX, yet there wasn't anything unusual that I could see on the surface map. This morning the precip was more discernible in the south and much more so this afternoon. Sure enough, here it comes -- a storm coming from the deep south that didn't exist 24 hours ago, and we've got heavy snow coming our way just as they forecast. Darn that butterfly in the Amazon! :x
Mae govannen!
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