Seems they think they know WHEN it will or might rain. Hey, if the chance of precipitation is 60% aren't they also saying that the chance of their forecast being correct is only 60%?? Because 40% of the time it won't rain, and they will be wrong.
That's the genius in stating the
probability of precipitation ... they
can't be wrong. If they say there's 60% chance of rain and it rains, they were right!
If they say there's a 60% chance of rain (40% chance of no rain) and it doesn't rain, guess what? -- they're still right!
Ya gotta love it.
Forecasts have become remarkably accurate in the past several years. It's uncanny.
Yesterday they put us under a winter storm watch
for tonight and tomorrow saying that a storm would develop in the southern Mississippi valley and move up here before anything was even going on down there! With my untrained eye, I couldn't see anything on the radar or surface map. In fact, TX, LA, and AR were under a high. The only thing I could see that looked a little funky was a divergent jet streak in the jet stream far down south. Sure enough, late last night scattered light rain started showing up on the radar down in southern TX, yet there wasn't anything unusual that I could see on the surface map. This morning the precip was more discernible in the south and much more so this afternoon. Sure enough, here it comes -- a storm coming from the deep south that didn't exist 24 hours ago, and we've got heavy snow coming our way just as they forecast. Darn that butterfly in the Amazon!