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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Weather Conditions Discussion => Topic started by: SLOweather on March 19, 2018, 09:24:00 AM

Title: SLOweather could see >4" rain this week, burn areas as much as 10!
Post by: SLOweather on March 19, 2018, 09:24:00 AM

If this verifies, it bodes ill for the Montecito/Ventura/Santa Barbara burn areas.

John Lindsey
‏ @PGE_John
11h11 hours ago

Quote

I don't like to over exaggerate, but all the ingredients are coming together to create a strong Atmospheric River (AR). This AR is forecast to produce gale-force southerly winds & heavy rainfall Tuesday into Thursday. Southerly facing slopes could see between 6 & 10 inches!

Daniel Swain
‏ @Weather_West
19h19 hours ago

Quote

Latest GFS showing 72-hour rainfall totals of 6-7+ inches over broad region near #ThomasFire burn scar. Given extreme orographic enhancement that typically occurs in Transverse Ranges near #SantaBarbara, that could easily translate to 10+ inches in favored areas

(http://www.sloweather.com/blog/2018/180319precipmap.jpg)

Title: Re: SLOweather could see >4" rain this week, burn areas as much as 10!
Post by: SLOweather on March 21, 2018, 10:29:40 AM

Not much rain so far. 0.81" for the storm since yesterday afternoon. But I don't recall any mention of convection or lightning/thunder in the forecasts. We just had an uncommon rumble of thouder and my Boltek/Nexstorm and Blitzortung are both showing lightning offshore here and down south.

(http://www.sloweather.com/blog/2018/180321lightning.jpg)

Title: Re: SLOweather could see >4" rain this week, burn areas as much as 10!
Post by: Old Tele man on March 21, 2018, 12:40:44 PM

California weather = Feast or Famine.

Title: Re: SLOweather could see >4" rain this week, burn areas as much as 10!
Post by: saratogaWX on March 21, 2018, 01:37:57 PM

It's more like 'Drought/Fire Season' or 'Flood/Mudslide Season'.  Good thing that earthquakes don't have seasons :)

Title: Re: SLOweather could see >4" rain this week, burn areas as much as 10!
Post by: SLOweather on March 22, 2018, 08:49:56 AM

As I write this at 5:40 AM, 1.04 inches since midnight, 4.00" for the storm.  Peak rain rates overnight of almost 2"/hr.

Flash Flood Watch until March 22, 05:00 PM PDT
Flood Advisory in effect from March 22, 03:16 AM PDT until March 22, 09:15 AM PDT

The axis of the plume tilted last evening, away from the Santa Barbara area and more toward us.

Waiting on the NWS graphical precip maps to update, and for daylight to see what it looks like out there. During a lull about 10PM I could hear Prefumo Creek raging down in the canyon.

Oh, and > 15k hits on SLOweather.com yesterday.