Author Topic: Severe weather chances next week  (Read 1318 times)

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Offline Anthony97

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Severe weather chances next week
« on: April 05, 2016, 11:32:05 PM »
Saw Nws talking about a warm up coming next week with potential for a severe weather threat from the central/Southern plains to the Mississippi valley northward. Kinda early for a thread but any opinions? 

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Severe weather chances next week
« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2016, 12:26:25 AM »
Probably would wait a couple of days before concern builds. There's a LONG period of time for that kind of statement to change. Interesting nonetheless  :-)
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Severe weather chances next week
« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2016, 12:50:16 AM »
Saw Nws talking about a warm up coming next week with potential for a severe weather threat from the central/Southern plains to the Mississippi valley northward. Kinda early for a thread but any opinions?
I would say calling for severe WX this time of year is no epiphany, but I've certainly noticed of late that forecasters are really starting to stretch their long range legs past the normal 5 day or so package for public consumption. Models will only get better.

Offline Maumelle Weather

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Re: Severe weather chances next week
« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2016, 08:16:09 AM »
There is never a "too early of a time for a severe weather thread in the U.S". I was recently asked by a fellow weather enthusiast from northern California when we had severe here. I responded with January 1st to December 31st.  I told him that here in Arkansas there is always a chance for severe weather. He was surprised by this statement. I gave him several dates of severe weather events here in AR as a reference. He was most surprised with me telling him of a tornado on December 31st, 2010 in northwest AR. This tornado was rated and EF-3 and caused 3 fatalities. What makes this unique is that it occurred just after 6:00 am, which isn't usually considered a time for such a strong tornado.

One of the most frightening experiences for me personally happened on Saturday, Feb. 22, 1975. It had been storming constantly all day. Temps were in the 70's-80's. Our local met was on the air with weather warnings from about noon on showing the WSR-57 radar from the NWS on the black and white TV we had. At around 4:15pm, it suddenly quit raining, quit thundering, everything. My father was on the phone when it suddenly cut out, and we lost power. It was then we looked out the living room window to see shingles flying off of all of the neighbors' roof and ours. Mom grabs myself and my brother and we bound down the stairs to the basement, while my father opens the front door to watch what's coming. I distinctly remember the pressure change in my ears and hearing the "waterfall" sound of a tornado. It was over in about 1 minute. We walked outside to inspect the damage. We had lost the entire south side of our roof and some other shingles off of the west side, but were otherwise unscathed. Several neighbors lost their steel storage sheds. Those were deposited in a backyard about a block away wrapped around a power pole.

We found out later that a house about a mile north of us was destroyed by this tornado. The only thing left standing was an island that was in the kitchen, and the owner had taken shelter in those cabinets!!!!  She was uninjured. This tornado was rated an F3.

Ironically the next day, Sunday, snow fell while my father and several neighbors helped re-roof our house and others homes that were damaged.

John
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Offline Anthony97

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Re: Severe weather chances next week
« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2016, 11:27:34 AM »
They really can happen at anytime of the year that is crazy what you went through I couldn't even imagine! :shock: fortunately I've never been through a tornado, I live just a little north of cincy so there definitely not as frequent as they are in Arkansas. They still can happen and it's definitely that time of year so that's what made me want to start this thread.

Offline Harryca

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Re: Severe weather chances next week
« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2016, 05:38:26 PM »
Yes, most definitely, tornadoes can happen any time of year.  It's just a matter of frequency and time of year.  We have even seen tornadoes in California in the winter months particularly after a strong cold front has passed that has a lot of instability behind it.

As far as how often they occur, the Monthly and Annual U.S. Tornado Summaries will give you an idea what months you can expect to see the most tornadoes or the least.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

And just for grins, here are the Monthly tornado averages by state and region.

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/03/19/monthly-tornado-averages-by-state-and-region/

And the Annual and monthly tornado averages across the United States.

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/

   
« Last Edit: April 06, 2016, 05:41:09 PM by Harryca »

Offline Anthony97

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Re: Severe weather chances next week
« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2016, 10:30:47 PM »
Thanks for the info! Actually goes pretty in depth about each region and the peak months which neat to know. 2016 has been pretty active imo compared to the past few years wonder how it will turn out especially with the warmer months coming up. Gut feeling it'll be pretty rough we will see though..

Offline MegaMax

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Re: Severe weather chances next week
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2016, 01:24:47 PM »
I April Kansas had 24 tornadoes which they say is double the normal number. It looks like it'll be a busy weather year.
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