Topic: Hmmmmm.... Should we be concerned?

[WeatherHost]

NOAA has issued Flood Watches 3-4 days in advance of the anticipated event.


Think they know something?    


They're predicting heavy rains thought the Ohio and Wabash River Valleys and areas further south for Saturday, Sunday and .......

Better go check on the Ark.

[anchorageweather]

NOAA has issued Flood Watches 3-4 days in advance of the anticipated event.


Think they know something?    


They're predicting heavy rains thought the Ohio and Wabash River Valleys and areas further south for Saturday, Sunday and .......

Better go check on the Ark.

Yes, I think they are counting on 2-4 inches regionally and more in some areas. The problem is the ground is already soaked.

[NoQuitters]

I'll trade you the rain for the freezing rain and snow we're going to get out of the same system.

[ncpilot]

NOAA has issued Flood Watches 3-4 days in advance of the anticipated event.

Think they know something?    

They're predicting heavy rains thought the Ohio and Wabash River Valleys and areas further south for Saturday, Sunday and .......

Better go check on the Ark.

Any specific link you are looking at?

[WeatherHost]

Any specific link you are looking at?

Well, for one, the SPC 4-8 day Experimental T'Storm Forecast, and any local NWS office in parts of KY, IL, IN, and MO that would fall along the rivers.

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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CST WED JAN 10 2007
   
   VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
   
   MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS
   IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES WILL
   ACCELERATE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THIS WEEKEND.  THIS IS
   PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING MID/UPPER FLOW IN A
   SOUTHWESTERLY BELT...ALONG A SHARP LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  AND...MORE LIKELY THAN NOT...THIS WILL
   BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
   
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN...AS VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE
   MODELS CONCERNING THIS EVOLUTION.  HOWEVER...WITH A COLD INTRUSION
   ALREADY LIKELY DEEP INTO THE PLAINS...INITIATION OF THE PRIMARY
   SURFACE WAVE APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
   SUNDAY...BEFORE THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS INTO/THROUGH THE OHIO
   VALLEY.  MREF MEAN 850 MB FLOW BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR
   IS PROGGED SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT...
   SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF VERY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN
   AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  INITIALLY WEAK LAPSE
   RATES MAY NOT STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...MINIMIZING CAPE...BUT
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...AND AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE
   COULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
   WINDS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO EXIST IN A
   CORRIDOR EAST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW TRACK...ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   INTO KENTUCKY.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/10/2007

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THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY
  AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* THE INGREDIENTS FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT APPEAR TO
  BE COMING TOGETHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
  FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON
  FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
  THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A STRONG FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE
  GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT...PERIODS OF HEAVY
  RAIN APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WATCH.
  PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
  WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS.

* RIVER LEVELS ARE HIGH...AND MINOR FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING
  ON THE WABASH AND GREEN RIVERS. THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT WILL
  AGGRAVATE FLOODING OF THESE RIVERS...AND POSSIBLY SEND OTHER
  RIVERS OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED IN
  ADVANCE OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MEANS ONLY ONE TO TWO
  INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS.

[WeatherHost]

So far we haven't had anywhere near the rain that was forecast, but it looks like it will pick up in intensity today and Sunday.  And that Ice line is far too close for comfort