Topic: Winter '15-'16

[Scotty51]

Yes, like I always find it weird when you make forecasts even for the upcoming season... here you really cant go over 10 day, max 2 weeks, but that already is 90% based on statistics, not current conditions.

2 weeks ago it was forecasted that the first half of March will be above average.... today, first day of spring, and they had to close down the airport due to heavy snow (and we had hardly any snow during the winter, I think this is maybe the most snow per day we got since last winter )

It's not any different here, they can forecast 120 hours out with some accuracy, beyond that is a crap shoot. This year is a prefect example, due to huge El Nino they have been giving 90 day outlooks for dryer than normal for the last 5 months, which for the Pacific Northwest is what's normal for El Nino.
It's now official, wettest winter in Seattle history this year, so much for the dry El Nino winter that was predicted.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-wettest-winter-in-seattle-history.html

[Jáchym]

What is interesting though is that our (European) models are actually more accurate as such, so when applied to the US conditions they provide much better results then yours

[Jáchym]

Eg:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/03/130307-weather-snowstorm-wrong-forecast-meteorology-world-europe-science/

[ValentineWeather]

Interesting read about the computing power and much higher resolution by the European model.

[CW2274]

Eg:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/03/130307-weather-snowstorm-wrong-forecast-meteorology-world-europe-science/

Not saying it's no longer relevant, but that's literally three years old, and we all know that's an eternity in the computing world. However, I still usually find the Euro model more consistent.

[Farmtalk]

Hard to believe that the first day of March is bringing a squall line with 55 mph winds!

[Scotty51]

What is interesting though is that our (European) models are actually more accurate as such, so when applied to the US conditions they provide much better results then yours

Absolutely, US just got a new system up and running finally.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-national-weather-services-new.html

[W3DRM]

What is interesting though is that our (European) models are actually more accurate as such, so when applied to the US conditions they provide much better results then yours

Absolutely, US just got a new system up and running finally.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-national-weather-services-new.html

But, please note near the end of the blog the comment about a NOAA system (NOAA GFDL FV3)) that, if selected, will keep us in the dark ages and decades behind. And we are supposed to take global warming seriously based on NOAA predictions???...
 

[Harryca]

Now this is more like it.  An excerpt from the Hydrologic Outlook issued today:

TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD 
BEGINNING FRIDAY AT 4AM LOCAL EXTENDING TO SATURDAY 4AM ARE LIKELY 
TO REACH 1-2 INCHES IN COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE SERVICE 
AREA, INCLUDING THE SANTA LUCIAS IN MONTEREY COUNTY. A 
CONTINUATION OF INTENSE RAIN WILL FOLLOW, WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES 
FALLING OVER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AGAIN CONCENTRATED IN COASTAL 
RANGES. SIX-DAY TOTALS, EXTENDING FROM WEDNESDAY MARCH 2 THROUGH 
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SHOULD YIELD 4-7 INCHES IN COASTAL 
MOUNTAINS AND 1-3 INCHES IN VALLEY FLOORS AND INLAND AREAS. 
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE SPECIFICS OF WEATHER PATTERNS FOR NEXT 
WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS AND FORECASTER INPUT SUGGEST CONTINUED 
WET WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE EXACT TIMING, LOCATION, AND 
AMOUNT REMAIN UNCERTAIN

http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA1255EFA6C528.HydrologicOutlook.1255EFE0B080CA.MTRESFMTR.a5516d741f076cc9bc3857f10cff30df

[hankster]

El Nińo winter had us chilly and wet. Here in South Florida we had the wettest winter on record. Normal Dec.-Feb. rainfall is 5.8", this winter it was 18.71" This had the effect of requiring water releases for weeks from Lake Okeechobee into the Gulf and Atlantic causing major environmental problems.

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/31361129/weather-blog-rainiest-winter-on-record-ends

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-lake-o-draining-decreasing-20160304-story.html