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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Tropical Weather => Topic started by: hankster on September 16, 2017, 11:34:43 AM
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This could get interesting starting next weekend.
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Looks like Lee and soon to named Maria.
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This one is Maria. Lee is the littler one out yonder..
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Hankster, are you able to change the post title from Invest 96 to Maria?
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I was able to change it.
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Sunday 8am plots, not much change. Still has a lot to do with how fast Jose moves out. If Jose moves out quickly, could allow high pressure to build in behind it and push Maria further west.
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Well, that sucks. My wife, daughter and her two kids booked a vacation for next week in the Dominican Republic. I have to stay and look after the farm animals. :-(
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Selfishly, I hope Jose takes its time and allows the Bermuda High to stay back. That would allow an earlier turn, sparing Nassau and Florida.
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Projected NHC 5 day track is starting to show the northwest turn with Maria becoming a Cat 4 before it hits PR. Still, east coast of the US should keep an eye on her.
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Now a Cat 5, Maria's latest track ticks a bit east. Good news for the US and Bahamas. Not good news for VI and PR and neighbouring islands.
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Man you gotta feel for the folks in Puerto Rico. 165mph sustained going right over the middle of the island. :sad:
Bad season about to get worse.
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It appears that the Southeast of the US is in the clear but North Carolina and states north should keep a close eye on Maria. Just for a disclaimer.... tracks can change, if the forecast track is within 500 miles you DO need to pay attention.
First graphic shows latest track. Second graphic shows the mechanics on how Jose will clear a path for Maria to follow.
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The future tracks outlook (modeling) seem to keep Maria just off the NC outer banks? What are some of you that are deep into these storms thinking about that right now? Do you think it will hook out towards Bermuda more in time, or will the models move west more and into the mainland?
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The future tracks outlook (modeling) seem to keep Maria just off the NC outer banks? What are some of you that are deep into these storms thinking about that right now? Do you think it will hook out towards Bermuda more in time, or will the models move west more and into the mainland?
Obviously opinions are welcome, but I truly doubt anyone on this forum could "out guess" the NHC at doing exactly what they're doing, being the best in the world, as they should. ;)
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The future tracks outlook (modeling) seem to keep Maria just off the NC outer banks? What are some of you that are deep into these storms thinking about that right now? Do you think it will hook out towards Bermuda more in time, or will the models move west more and into the mainland?
Any more than 3 days out is a crap shoot. That is one reason the NHC only shows 3 days with 5 day guidance. A lot will depend on what Jose does so anyone would have to forecast what Maria does 7 days out in relation to a forecast on what Jose does 7 days out and how the high pressure systems react to what Jose does or doesn't do.
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Haven't posted anything for a couple days but since Maria is getting closer I thought I do an update. The past couple of days have showed a westward tend. You really don't want to look at any single day but the overall trend and that is not good news for the Carolinas. While the NHC forecast track has Maria staying offshore the cone now touches the US mainland. The latest Euro run has Maria coming very close to the Carolinas. In any case, at the very least, the outer banks should be keeping a very close eye on this. There will be some effects there, the question is how much.
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Thanks for the update hankster. Keeping an eye on this for New England as well.
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We in the Bahamas can now finally breathe a sigh of relief on this deadly storm. Back to the beaches and rum punches!
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The 11pm HNC forcast doesn't show much of a change for the NC coast but it does show a sharp curve east giving some breathing room for the New England states. What it doesn't show is that the major models do show a slight tick to the west again. The NHC doesn't react as fast as the major models do as . I would say it does more of an average over a the past few runs. If the models keep trending west you'll see the NHC shift west in tomorrow's morning or evening run.
Shown below is the NHC forecast track and cone plus the major models tracks. As always, don't concentrate on any single forecast models run but what the trends show over a few runs.
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The 11pm HNC forcast doesn't show much of a change for the NC coast but it does show a sharp curve west giving some breathing room for the New England states.
Don't you mean east? ;)
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The 11pm HNC forcast doesn't show much of a change for the NC coast but it does show a sharp curve west giving some breathing room for the New England states.
Don't you mean east? ;)
Haha, yep, thanks for the catch.
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Remains of the WSR88D. Radome was good for 130MPH winds. Courtesy of Maria. Pic is courtesy of NWS San Juan.
(https://sacrey.info/images/TJUA.jpg)
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Maria winds down to 90MPH. The official NHC track hasn't changed much but the major forecast models still have Maria coming much closer to the NC coast. Maria did wobble about 20 miles east late this evening and that may be why the NHC track didn't change much. Hurricane force winds extend out about 60 miles from the center of the eye. The Outer Banks up to VA Beach could see 10' to 15' waves with the associated beach damage along with tropical force winds.
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Off-topic - Hankster - my mother & father used to live in Orange Harbor Mobile Home & RV Park in the 90's. They were on Sun Circle and had their own boat dock. Am wondering if that area was damaged by Irma? I never did hear how high the storm surge actually was in that area. It had been predicted to be as high as 9 to 15 feet, as I remember. I also have relatives who live in Cape Coral.
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The storm surge never got near as high as they predicted. Dry air got sucked into the back side of Irma and the winds on the southern side was nowhere near as bad as it could have been. Don't know about that park myself but I know even Fort Myers Beach and Captiva had little storm surge damage.
I do know that some areas actually gained an extra 100' or so of extra beach as the storm seemed to pick up and deposit sand in some areas. That should save on beach replenishment expenses for awhile :)
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Maria is really going to slow down over the next couple of days until it races off to the northeast. Wind speeds down to 80MPH. This will not be a big rain or wind event for the states but the extra time being spent off the Carolinas and Virginia means more chance of damage from storm surge and high waves.
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This will be the last Maria post. Maria is now a TS with winds down to 70MPH. Coastal winds are 25 to 30MPH. Should start moving east quickly Wed evening.
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