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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Weather Conditions Discussion => Topic started by: bmchan on December 30, 2015, 06:58:36 AM

Title: The Warming Climate
Post by: bmchan on December 30, 2015, 06:58:36 AM
During the previous 2 years there have been few global warming headlines due to the major media centers in the Northeast experiencing below normal temperatures. It surprised me to notice that during the previous winter the eastern US was the only part of the World which had below normal temperatures and that everyone else was above normal. Well this Fall we sorta have had a day of reckoning with the eastern US being well above normal and many record highs reported. While I agree that the overall trend in recent decades has been a warmer one I think that the short time relative to the age of the Earth in which accurate measurements of Global temperatures have been recorded will always put some doubt into the theory. However the increasing floods and droughts we seem to be experiencing do concern me and I am glad that climate summits are trying to deal with the issue. I must say however that a major volcanic eruption could turn things the other way. Also there are processes on the Earth which are taking the CO2 out of the air which have always been around. We have however have destroyed many forests and have influenced the sea CO2 sinks in an unknown way. However with every plant or tree we put into the ground we help even things out. The temperatures are finally cooling down in the US and the west has not been without its snow. But if we have temperatures at the scale we had this Fall during the upcoming Summer in the East we will really be hurting. It is something to continue to monitor and study.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on December 30, 2015, 07:21:56 AM
Europe has experienced extremely above-average temperatures lately, this Christmas, we had around 10°C again, this has been like this for the past at least 5 years, even though the long-term average since 1961 for Christmas is around 0°C. Also, so far we had no snow this winter whatsoever. I remember only 15 yrs ago when I was little, we had snow regularly, last 3 winters, almost nothing.

But you might be interested in this :D
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: bmchan on December 30, 2015, 07:39:17 AM
That is an interesting article indeed. It is important to note that the satellite technology that measured the Earth's temperatures is only decades old and it's difficult to put every piece into the puzzle of climate change. If that change does indeed occur climate scientists will be headed back to the drawing board. I hope we are prepared for both warming and cooling scenarios.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on December 30, 2015, 09:20:33 AM
The question is what happens then... if you think about it, this would basically override the effects of overall global warming, which would however still progress, so as soon as the solar cycles are back to normal, it would not get back to the original level, but probably even higher, making it even more difficult because of the sudden change... we will see. There is definitely so many factors coming into play that I doubt we will ever be able to do any accurate long-term predictions.

And also... never underestimate the butterfly effect...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Scalphunter on December 30, 2015, 11:55:58 AM
a lot of this depends where the earth is in it processor  cycle.  With an 23K year cycle I think all our  data  just an speck in time. There  couple  volcano's that  spew 7k tons of  co2 into the atmosphere and yet   a few are saying man a problem.   Who know also when we go thru an other dust cloud in out travels around the  Galanxy  all this contributes to what happens here.


John
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 16, 2016, 09:49:21 AM
Global warming also has some positive consequences ;)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/dh2zic.jpg)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 16, 2016, 10:18:02 AM
The Al Gore's and others making a living pushing the bad science now want the Courts to make it illegal to even question climate change.
So we may be arrested soon for even disputing the garbage science. And they wonder why so many are angry with the direction we are headed. Just look at the USA election process this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg, we haven't seen anything yet.   

What’s  this world coming to?  :evil: :evil:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bushman on March 16, 2016, 10:18:35 AM
Well if Leonardo DiCaprio says it is happening, then it MUST be true!   ](*,)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ocala on March 16, 2016, 08:56:46 PM
Great pic Jachym. :grin:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bunty on March 17, 2016, 03:42:52 AM
The Al Gore's and others making a living pushing the bad science now want the Courts to make it illegal to even question climate change.
So we may be arrested soon for even disputing the garbage science. And they wonder why so many are angry with the direction we are headed. Just look at the USA election process this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg, we haven't seen anything yet.   

What’s  this world coming to?  :evil: :evil:

How much warmer must it get before it's no longer bad science?  7 straight days of 100 degrees or more in Fairbanks, Alaska?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 06:04:19 AM
To be quite honest I find it rather strange that so many people on this forum, weather enthusiasts and people who obviously know about this more than general public, deny global warming and its consequences, despite the fact we are no longer talking about probablities like "very likely" but rather "certain" (I am basing this on the last IPCC report which I was translating to Czech so I read it in quite some detail).

Having studied biology and genetics in particular, I would compare this to denying evolution, which is also something lot of people still do.

I am a very rational person and studied natural sciences and to me, the answers to the above questions are quite obvious based on not just the information I learned, but also what I see and millions of evidences.

Likewise though, I am very tolerant in terms of respecting other people´s believes so I have no problem with other people having a different opinion, as long as they do not try to prove me wrong :D
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 17, 2016, 08:07:08 AM
The Al Gore's and others making a living pushing the bad science now want the Courts to make it illegal to even question climate change.
So we may be arrested soon for even disputing the garbage science. And they wonder why so many are angry with the direction we are headed. Just look at the USA election process this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg, we haven't seen anything yet.   

What’s  this world coming to?  :evil: :evil:

How much warmer must it get before it's no longer bad science?  7 straight days of 100 degrees or more in Fairbanks, Alaska?

I'm not disputing we aren't warming but its at the natural rate since the last ice age. Man has zero to do with the outcome based on the minuscule amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere.
These false alarmist are basing data on cooked books and computer models. Having a super strong El Nino being the generator behind the warmth this year has nothing to do with man caused warming. I guess we forgot about the 3-4 prior record cold winters.

I look at the big picture not the few years we have been here and don't reinforce the rhetoric based on remembering my childhood weather events.  People that do that are followers not innovators.

Watts Up With That, the worlds most visited climate change and global warming site has some graphs for the paleoclimate and some other good information including this years heat generator El Nino.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/paleoclimate/

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 08:40:30 AM
Minuscule?

just example:

Greenhouse gas emissions from volcanoes comprise less than one percent of those generated by today’s human endeavors.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 17, 2016, 09:46:47 AM
I say minuscule when total atmosphere CO2 is one-half of one-tenth of one percent of the atmosphere, and mankind contributes to about 10 percent of the total amount of CO2.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 09:55:03 AM
I say minuscule when total atmosphere CO2 is one-half of one-tenth of one percent of the atmosphere, and mankind contributes to about 10 percent of the total amount of CO2.

Yes, but the actual amount does not correspond with the effects it has... there are also other GHGs which are in much smaller amounts and have thousands fold greater effect (freons etc)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 17, 2016, 10:21:04 AM
I say minuscule when total atmosphere CO2 is one-half of one-tenth of one percent of the atmosphere, and mankind contributes to about 10 percent of the total amount of CO2.

Yes, but the actual amount does not correspond with the effects it has... there are also other GHGs which are in much smaller amounts and have thousands fold greater effect (freons etc)

Sorry Jachym I just don't drink the cool aid. (At ALL) No disrespect to you or others we just have different ideas whats going on. Its political and much deeper than many realize.
I've got into heated conversations with my son who unfortunately drank the cool aid while at Texas A&M. When he starts losing it, I call it a win. :lol:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 10:28:36 AM
I definitely do not want to argue with you, but you are not going to persuade me either, I have a very clear opinion about it... in the end it is good people have diiferent opinions... world would be quite boring otherwise don´t you think? ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 10:31:24 AM
Just one last thing... do not think I am one of those who simply repeat what they see on TV. I work as a climatologist and spend most of my time at work analyzing various types of data and so I think I have good and balanced sources and also some things from first hand.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 17, 2016, 10:43:05 AM
No, I analyze data too but not for a living. I'm more into climatology than just current weather happenings. Its why I'm anal about accuracy. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on March 17, 2016, 11:13:55 AM
You know the 'experts' have their wires crossed when for example the NOAA-NWS 'Climate Prediction Center' issues a 6 to 10 day and an 8 to 14 day weather forecast!  It should be called the Long-Term Forecast Center in order to more clearly reflect the nature of their products.  They aren't predicting climate, any more than 'climatologists' can read the tea leaves inside our day-to-day, or even year-by-year weather.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 01:29:14 PM
Quote
Having a super strong El Nino being the generator behind the warmth this year has nothing to do with man caused warming. I guess we forgot about the 3-4 prior record cold winters.

Well... you are the one talking about "last 3-4 prior cold winters" - which in climatological perspective is totally irrelevant. Also, this was mostly in the NE USA, in other parts of the country this was not the case.

i could also just pinpoint some particular winters here in Europe which are not what one would expect.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bunty on March 17, 2016, 03:32:45 PM
I figure most of the global warming denying is politically motivated.  People don't want to pay higher taxes and more restrictive regulations as suggested ways to combat it.  Also China not wanting to do much doesn't help matters.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on March 17, 2016, 05:28:21 PM
Quote
Having a super strong El Nino being the generator behind the warmth this year has nothing to do with man caused warming. I guess we forgot about the 3-4 prior record cold winters.

Well... you are the one talking about "last 3-4 prior cold winters" - which in climatological perspective is totally irrelevant. Also, this was mostly in the NE USA, in other parts of the country this was not the case.

i could also just pinpoint some particular winters here in Europe which are not what one would expect.
You've just illustrated my point, Jachym.  Talking about the last few years' weather as being indicative of a climate shift is like measuring the length of a person's nose and declaring you know the person's height as well as their hair and eye color.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 06:27:14 PM
Yes, so we need to look at long term trends, trends of at least thousands of years and compare that to 20th and this century ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on March 17, 2016, 07:13:42 PM
Yes, so we need to look at long term trends, trends of at least thousands of years and compare that to 20th and this century ;)
There's the rub.  What's the comparison point?  Since a changing climate is the norm and not the exception we're pinning the tail on a moving donkey while blindfolded.  The results of that exercise are most likely to be ugly and largely wasted effort.  I'm all for observing the weather, but I can't abide drawing unwarranted conclusions from the data.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 07:16:52 PM
You can get very accurate data from the ice cores.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on March 17, 2016, 08:25:02 PM
But how do you avoid the post-hoc ergo propter-hoc fallacy? In other words causality isn't a given, and to assume it is a to make a logical error of huge consequence.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on March 17, 2016, 08:55:20 PM
Yes, of course you can never be sure, but you can never be sure about almost anything so one must make decisions based on probability. There are arguments for and against, the ones for are much stronger and so even though they could be wrong, it is still more likely than going with the opposite, where the likeliness of being wrong and bearing the consequences is higher.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on March 17, 2016, 09:21:54 PM
Yes, of course you can never be sure, but you can never be sure about almost anything so one must make decisions based on probability. There are arguments for and against, the ones for are much stronger and so even though they could be wrong, it is still more likely than going with the opposite, where the likeliness of being wrong and bearing the consequences is higher.
:shock: Disagree.  We have no firm basis for linking CO2 levels causally with global warming.  The evidence is contradictory at best, and global warming might result in higher CO2 levels not vice versa.

I'm not drinking your Kool-Aid, but I agree that there's currently a long-term trend towards global warming.  I don't profess to know the future and the past is murky at best.  Epistemology (http://www.iep.utm.edu/epistemo/) is fraught with quicksand.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 08, 2016, 08:12:35 PM
OK, no matter if you do or don't believe in global warming and its causes....

this I think really isn't gonna work :D :D :D  ](*,) ](*,)

http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/wind-powered-skyscrapers-could-cool-entire-planet/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 11, 2016, 07:11:08 PM
Interesting :D

(http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/uploads/news/5_9_16_Andrea_TempSpiralEdHawkins.gif)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 11, 2016, 08:04:06 PM
Does this graph take into account the gradual immersion of many once isolated measuring locations into urban heat islands?  I wouldn't take this at face value because of the difficulty in measuring 'global' temperatures over time, especially when you consider the locations of many of our weather stations today and the absence of weather stations in many spots a century and a half ago.

What's the theory behind this metric?  Is it an average taken at a particular time of day, an average of the daily highs, an average of the daily lows, an average of the sum of the daily high and daily low, or some other calculated value?  Each method has serious flaws even if the data were valid.

Do you give equal weight to stations regardless of station density, or do you calculate an average areal temperature from the number of available stations irrespective of the number of stations thus ignoring the impact of sample size on validity?  Again, your methodology significantly affects your results.

That said, yes, the average temperatures we measure are most likely slowly rising. However, I suspect we differ regarding probable causes and possible effective interventions.  Were we to abruptly wipe mankind from the planet, would these changes slowly cease and then reverse?  I don't know for sure, but I doubt it.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 11, 2016, 08:07:35 PM
I agree, what striked me though is the extreme difference this very last yr and I would assume that at least the last 10 yrs the methodology has been the same
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 11, 2016, 08:11:46 PM
After seeing the above graph I'll post what I have from middle of USA no urban heat island. No one said its not warming everyone knows it is since the last ice age but this is over 100 years of data small town USA. I haven't really looked at this just barely made the charts with excel. These are the yearly mean Max and Minimum temperatures. What can we make from them?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 11, 2016, 08:15:03 PM
I agree this shows no particular trend, but one location is not relevant.

Now whatever the cause may be, this is not a coincidence:



The global temperature in March has shattered a century-long record and by the greatest margin yet seen for any month.

February was far above the long-term average globally, driven largely by climate change, and was described by scientists as a “shocker” and signalling “a kind of climate emergency”. But data released by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) shows that March was even hotter.

Compared with the 20th-century average, March was 1.07C hotter across the globe, according to the JMA figures, while February was 1.04C higher. The JMA measurements go back to 1891 and show that every one of the past 11 months has been the hottest ever recorded for that month.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 11, 2016, 08:27:20 PM
See my response above.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 11, 2016, 08:40:58 PM
Absolutely Jerry we know whats happening, how the data is manipulated and cherry picked.  I really hate these discussions because nobody can convenience others one way or another. I'm convinced its misrepresented data (and that folks is my best PC)  and don't plan on changing my mind anytime soon and don't really feel like offending others.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 12, 2016, 04:49:33 AM
Well I see your point, of course there could be data manipulation, misleading interpretation etc., but the problem is that you could apply it to absolutely anything. You could then doubt absolutely any statistic and in a sense you would be right, but with such approach you could simply ignore all statistics - even the ones that are against global warming, I could just as well argue that those are also misleading and deceiving.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: DanS on May 12, 2016, 06:17:43 AM
I'm not debating either side here but just want to say that the last 3 days have been hotter than usual for this time of year that I can remember (43c/109f) and hope John is right with the world cyclic thing - 
"a lot of this depends where the earth is in it processor  cycle.  With an 23K year cycle I think all our  data  just an speck in time"
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 12, 2016, 06:38:29 AM
Yes, i am not trying to convince anyone, just expressing my opinion, though I must say that

Quote
the last 3 days have been hotter than usual

is in terms of global coverage and hundreds of years, slightly irrelevant :D
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 12, 2016, 08:33:02 AM
Yes, i am not trying to convince anyone, just expressing my opinion, though I must say that

Quote
the last 3 days have been hotter than usual

is in terms of global coverage and hundreds of years, slightly irrelevant :D
A definite point of agreement, Jachym!  Now expand your view to encompass thousands of years, and very, very carefully examine your datasets and their relationship to that perspective as well as the datasets' validity.  My point is that we don't really know the cause(s) of global warming nor have we even accurately defined a metric that we can agree upon.  Agreed-upon guesses, i.e. 'scientific consensus', don't matter much in the overall scheme of things other than to foolishly place faith in tenuous hypotheses in order to politicize the issue and thereby assume a mantle of authority.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: MegaMax on May 12, 2016, 09:13:15 AM
It seems to me that comparing ancient weather data which for the most part didn't exist to data from our technology today is like putting a model T and a modern racecar on a track and expecting them to do the same thing. The model T isn't going to be as reliable as the racecar. Using the speeds from the model T and from the racecar aren't going to give you accurate trends.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 12, 2016, 09:31:10 AM
You can make relatively accurate comparable estimates from ice core samples extracted
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on May 12, 2016, 10:03:06 AM
Is relatively accurate not kinda like being little bit pregnant ?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WeatherHost on May 12, 2016, 01:18:32 PM
"The Warming Climate"  must be why the forecast for this weekend is 15 degrees or more below average.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 12, 2016, 01:21:32 PM
Quote
for this weekend

ok, I guess I didn´t get my point across, but again, I respect everyone´s opinion, I myself have my own opinion about all this and I guess we should leave it there
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 12, 2016, 01:44:10 PM
Because temperature extremes are much greater in dry air which produces warmer days and cooler nights, without an accompanying dewpoint a temperature by itself is a pretty precarious measure of warmth.  Eighty years ago the US Plains suffered terrible heat waves for several years setting many records which still stand today.  There was also a severe drought.  Climate 'experts' don't seem obligated to give a complete picture when talking about temperature extremes and take the temperature alone as the most meaningful metric.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Harryca on May 14, 2016, 03:27:23 PM
Interesting read.

Quote
Five reef islands have disappeared from the Pacific's Solomon Islands and six more have been severely damaged due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion, according to new research. Studying the relationship between sea level rise and wave exposure in the "global sea-level rise hotspot," a team of Australian researchers found rising waters are taking a significant toll on the islands. "At least 11 islands across the northern Solomon Islands have either totally disappeared over recent decades or are currently experiencing severe erosion," according to the study published in Environmental Research Letters. Focusing on two areas with the highest density of exposed reef islands, two researchers, Isabel and Roviana, examined 33 islands using aerial and satellite imagery dating from 1947 to 2014. Their findings confirm anecdotal accounts coming from scientists and locals of the islands' extreme shoreline changes over the past decade. "Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations," the study said.

Rest of article: http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=CC-20160507-53219-SLB
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 14, 2016, 04:17:44 PM
Interesting read.

Quote
Five reef islands have disappeared from the Pacific's Solomon Islands and six more have been severely damaged due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion, according to new research. Studying the relationship between sea level rise and wave exposure in the "global sea-level rise hotspot," a team of Australian researchers found rising waters are taking a significant toll on the islands. "At least 11 islands across the northern Solomon Islands have either totally disappeared over recent decades or are currently experiencing severe erosion," according to the study published in Environmental Research Letters. Focusing on two areas with the highest density of exposed reef islands, two researchers, Isabel and Roviana, examined 33 islands using aerial and satellite imagery dating from 1947 to 2014. Their findings confirm anecdotal accounts coming from scientists and locals of the islands' extreme shoreline changes over the past decade. "Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations," the study said.

Rest of article: http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=CC-20160507-53219-SLB
The world's oceans have long been rising.  This article (http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/12newworld/background/sealevel/sealevel.html) illustrates that these findings are but a continuation of a multi-millenial progression of sea-level changes.  Because we now have the means of precisely documenting such changes doesn't mean they are unique in our planet's history.  Places at risk should take notice and be forewarned, not look for someone to blame.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 14, 2016, 04:29:48 PM
Now, there is one thing that I cannot resist to ask you.

There is a fundamental flaw in your argument.

You are basically saying all the time, we have insufficient evidence that global warming is a result of human intervention, arguing that temperatures could be rising for other reasons, etc etc.

But... I could actually say the exact opposite, but using the same logic:

What evidence do you have for the fact this is NOT happening as a result of human actions? What evidence do you have that the oceans are rising for other reasons? The problem is obvious - yes I agree that we will very likely never have a definitive answer as to whether or not humans are causing this, but so are you never going to have a definitive evidence that this is not due to humans.

In conclusion - we could both be right and so it is just a matter of what everyone thinks is more likely. I myself have my own opinion, I am not going to say yours is wrong, you just believe the opposite, but likewise you cannot prove me wrong... thats the point...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 14, 2016, 05:02:22 PM
Now, there is one thing that I cannot resist to ask you.

There is a fundamental flaw in your argument.

You are basically saying all the time, we have insufficient evidence that global warming is a result of human intervention, arguing that temperatures could be rising for other reasons, etc etc.

But... I could actually say the exact opposite, but using the same logic:

What evidence do you have for the fact this is NOT happening as a result of human actions? What evidence do you have that the oceans are rising for other reasons? The problem is obvious - yes I agree that we will very likely never have a definitive answer as to whether or not humans are causing this, but so are you never going to have a definitive evidence that this is not due to humans.

In conclusion - we could both be right and so it is just a matter of what everyone thinks is more likely. I myself have my own opinion, I am not going to say yours is wrong, you just believe the opposite, but likewise you cannot prove me wrong... thats the point...
Let me get this straight.  The oceans have been rising for millenia as glacial ice from the last ice age has been melting, so you're positing that the ice ages were caused by prehistoric humans?  There's scant evidence of such, although you are free to believe what you will.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 14, 2016, 05:46:20 PM
The problem is that rising oceans is by far not the only evidence people give for global warming....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 15, 2016, 09:34:35 AM
The problem is that rising oceans is by far not the only evidence people give for global warming....
But it's the evidence you cited, Jachym. ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 15, 2016, 09:56:50 AM
No I did not, I was not the one who began conversation about sea level rise (see previous page of this thread).

You know I think we should really end this debate, it is going nowhere.

Maybe if I didn't do these things for living and didn't know all the things I know, if I didn't have data and analyses from first hand (not interpreted by someone or some biased statistic as you are suggesting), didn't read the books, articles and reports and seen things myself, then I might also think otherwise.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 15, 2016, 10:15:37 AM
No I did not, I was not the one who began conversation about sea level rise (see previous page of this thread).
But it was you who claimed that it could be due to human influences on a multi-millenial basis.
Quote
You know I think we should really end this debate, it is going nowhere.
Agreed.
Quote
Maybe if I didn't do these things for living and didn't know all the things I know, if I didn't have data and analyses from first hand (not interpreted by someone or some biased statistic as you are suggesting), didn't read the books, articles and reports and seen things myself, then I might also think otherwise.
The appeal to authority is a well-known logical fallacy, Jachym.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 15, 2016, 10:21:43 AM
I am not appealing to authority, my point was that I think I have enough information to make up my mind about this.

The problem with your argumentation is that you only deny everything people say are evidences for global warming. But you have not presented any arguments that would clearly show, it is not happening.

All things such as much faster rate of rising global temperatures, much faster rate of sea level rise, much faster rate of CO2 and other GHG build up in the atmosphere.... all these things all fit nicely to the theory of global warming and humans causing it (burning fossil fuels etc etc). So this all fits.

Now, your argument is that although this is all happening, it is not a result of human action, but rather a natural development. However, first of all, if it was natural, why is there such sudden increased rate, and second, more importantly, you are still just saying "no, this is not due to humans" - but what makes you think so, just because temperatures have risen in the past does not mean it is now again just a natural phenomenon. My point is that you are all the time just saying "not it is not humans" - but give no evidence for this other than "this happened in the past". You seem to ignore the fact that if it was humans causing this, the evidences would be exactly what we see now.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on May 15, 2016, 01:33:47 PM
I am not appealing to authority, my point was that I think I have enough information to make up my mind about this.
You are indeed appealing to authority.
Quote

The problem with your argumentation is that you only deny everything people say are evidences for global warming. But you have not presented any arguments that would clearly show, it is not happening.
See below.
Quote

All things such as much faster rate of rising global temperatures, much faster rate of sea level rise, much faster rate of CO2 and other GHG build up in the atmosphere.... all these things all fit nicely to the theory of global warming and humans causing it (burning fossil fuels etc etc). So this all fits.

Now, your argument is that although this is all happening, it is not a result of human action, but rather a natural development. However, first of all, if it was natural, why is there such sudden increased rate, and second, more importantly, you are still just saying "no, this is not due to humans" - but what makes you think so, just because temperatures have risen in the past does not mean it is now again just a natural phenomenon. My point is that you are all the time just saying "not it is not humans" - but give no evidence for this other than "this happened in the past". You seem to ignore the fact that if it was humans causing this, the evidences would be exactly what we see now.
I don't think the evidence is nearly so monolithic and 'factual' as you have been led to believe.  There are good geological and geophysical arguments against all of the environmentalist claims you cite.  Here is an entry into contrarian geophysical views (https://debunkhouse.wordpress.com/2011/01/25/catastrophism-anthropocentric-science-run-amok/).  And another (https://debunkhouse.wordpress.com/2011/01/12/the-end-for-small-glaciers-or-anthropogenic-circular-reasoning/).  And another (https://debunkhouse.wordpress.com/2010/03/04/no-statistically-significant-warming-since-1995/).  Finally, the truth about your hockey-stick (http://a-sceptical-mind.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-hockey-stick)?

People used to agree that our Sun was the center of the universe.  You know how that consensus was shattered, slowly and painfully.  Physicians for millenia believed and taught that the cause of peptic ulcer disease was psychogenic.  We now know the vast majority of peptic ulcers are caused by Helicobacter pylori infections.  Consensus can often be wrong.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WeatherHost on May 15, 2016, 05:18:51 PM
People are silly enough to think we have an effect on an eco-system that has existed for eons before us and will exist for eons after us.

When Momma thinks we've spit in her eye too many times, she'll deal with us decisively.  It won't be a little water here and there, or making it a little too hot.  It will be cataclysmic; something like multiple Volcanic eruptions or Earthquakes in close succession.



Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 15, 2016, 05:30:56 PM
There is no point in posting any links to studies and papers, why? Because for every paper you post I can post a different one that will contradict it and be for global warming.

You are absolutely correct in that very often, statistics are biased, misinterpreted etc etc.... the problem however, is that global warming is something you cannot use only your primary data for - in other words, it is absolutely irrelevant what you yourself see at your place. That means you sort of rely on these studies and papers and the results of these analyses.

And the problem is that there is no way you can say only "that" particular statistic is biased. Maybe it is the one against global warming, maybe it is the one for it.... there are companies and parties that have a big interest in denying global warming. Likewise there are many who would benefit if global warming was proved. So you will find statistics biased in both directions and so the conclusion is again - it is up to everyone to make a ballanced decision based on what they know, read and think. But it remains impossible for you and me to prove the other one wrong...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 15, 2016, 05:52:24 PM
I know this very very well... given I mastered from Genetics, I have seen similar thing so many times... I still find it hard to believe how many people actually do not believe in evolution. And what is more, so many people really believe that the Earth was created several thousand years ago, as stated in the bible. Now, I do not want to insult anyone's beliefs, but believing in God, respecting the Bible etc. is one thing, but absolutely overseeing scientific evidences is a different matter. And what is even more shocking is the number of people who actually believe the Earth is flat! I am not joking... people will always try to find conspiracy theories in everything, saying all the images of Earth from space are fake, Earth as we know it "looks flat" and everytime you come up with an argument such as "how come no-one has ever fallen over the edge", they will only look for further and further explanations.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 15, 2016, 05:55:53 PM
Absolutely agree with this:

Quote
People are drawn to conspiracy theories, though, and the Internet has only helped to accelerate their spread. They give certain people a sense of security, control and comfort that they haven’t found in the natural world around them. By only conversing with others that agree with them in “echo chambers,” any opposing views are filtered out, and they become increasingly entrenched in their own views. Perhaps this is what drives contemporary Flat Earthers.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WeatherHost on May 15, 2016, 06:16:42 PM
... but it seems to me the underlying reason so many people believe there's no real long-term climate change stems from  ...

There IS long term climate change.  Far longer than Human existence.  'Climate' is a living thing, changing constantly which explains the Ice Ages and glaciers forming the Great Lakes Basin.  They're in retreat now.  A few millions years from now, they'll be advancing again.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 15, 2016, 06:24:40 PM
... but it seems to me the underlying reason so many people believe there's no real long-term climate change stems from  ...

There IS long term climate change.  Far longer than Human existence.  'Climate' is a living thing, changing constantly which explains the Ice Ages and glaciers forming the Great Lakes Basin.  They're in retreat now.  A few millions years from now, they'll be advancing again.

Yes, agree, just that it has now accelerated rapidly and is well explained by what we do
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 15, 2016, 06:43:42 PM
Let me just give you a different example.

I guess we can at least all agree on that it is a problem - lets now ignore whether caused by humans or not - the increasing sea levels, the accelerated warming and the increasing number of natural disasters, anomalies and extremes, is a serious threat and can cause many lost lives and damages.

There are two options: either it is a natural development, or it is something caused by human actions.

If we now try to reduce the possible things that could be causing this - i.e. reduce emissions etc., then you could take it as a precaution measure. It will again lead to two possible scenarios. Either we will discover that it solved the problem - great. Or we realize it had no effect, in which case we could at least say "we tried". It is always easier to just put one's head in the sand and pretend there are no problems or just blame the mother nature... If there was an asteroid heading towards the Earth, would you also say: well, you know our planet was hit many times in the past so let's just live with it. Or would you at least try to do anything you could to try to diverge it? And I know this example is extreme, but it is sort of the same way of thinking. Likewise, do you backup your PC files? Do you pay health insurance? I guess (hope) you do, and are you later on pissed off if you don't actually need that backup because your HDD didnt fail, or when you don't use the insurance because you were not sick? Taking precaution measures is something that might have its disadvantages, but if you ever need it, you will be very glad for what you did in the past.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Harryca on May 15, 2016, 07:39:14 PM
If we now try to reduce the possible things that could be causing this - i.e. reduce emissions etc., then you could take it as a precaution measure. It will again lead to two possible scenarios. Either we will discover that it solved the problem - great. Or we realize it had no effect, in which case we could at least say "we tried".

I totally agree with that.  I certainly don't want to see the US going back to the "good old days" with all the air (and water) polluting factories and other polluting sources (AGAIN) as some politicians want us to do.  The US has actually done a lot to curb emissions but, we still need to cut back even more.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 15, 2016, 08:09:03 PM
Yes, though it must be stated that it is/was not just the US. If people only see the economical factor and profit then it is a problem, and even that is actually controversial, because it is just short-term profit and solution, in long-term.... the earlier we start, the better and it might also be too late one day.

I always admired people who didn't just feel content with whatever is already available and the way things are. In fact, if everyone thought like that none of the modern technological advances would be possible.

Quote
Everything that can be Invented has been Invented

Charles H. Duell, the Commissioner of US patent office in 1899.

I also try not to be like that. When I first started thinking about making a weather website two years ago, I came across this forum and Saratoga and Leuven. Now, as much as I like those templates and think Ken and Wim have done amazing job, it was just not what I was looking for - I wanted something that will also save my data and utilize MySQL. Of course I could just say, well, too bad and install one of those and have it the next day. But I chose the harder way and decided I will rather have it later and started learning PHP and HTML etc. and then creating my own.

If we just say there is nothing we can do about this and that if global warming occurs it is just the way things "were meant to be", without even trying... I personally believe we, humans, are the main cause of these sudden problems, but whether or not you share that opinion, it should also be in your interest to at least try to fight it, rather than just say, I dont care, I will just ignore it, I am not going to make any compromise. Thinking this will have a positive effect, generate more profit is very short sighted.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Harryca on May 15, 2016, 11:08:44 PM
Sorry, I didn't mean to piss anybody off here.  Post deleted.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 27, 2016, 08:35:46 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36401174

Quote
Every single major scientific institution in the United States, including the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy for the Advancement of Science, the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union and the American Institute of Physics, have published reports and/or statements affirming man’s role in climate change based on multiple lines of evidence.

Quote
He says scientists “now don’t know if they have global warming” when there is absolutely zero doubt, even among scientists who are unconvinced climate change poses a major threat, that the planet is warming up. The latest two years were the warmest two years on record, and the warmth in the months of January and February deviated more from average than ever before (in historical records).

Donald Trump:
Quote
I think it’s weather; I think it’s weather changes,” Trump said. “There could be some man-made something. But, you know, if you look at China, they’re doing nothing about it, other countries are doing nothing about it.  It’s a big planet. ”

He doesnt even know the difference between weather and climate. Also, I cannot believe his reasoning - "others dont so why should we"... Its like saying - someone stole something/murdered someone etc. so I will as well, just because I want to and since someone else has done it, there is nothing wrong with me doing it as well.... no comment
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 27, 2016, 09:26:32 PM
Actually Trump is the result of the last decade (8 yrs) of stagnation of the economy brought on by regulations meant to strangle business. America is finally ready for a change in a big way.
 
Either toward freeing up capitalism or moving toward socialism. We will see but I think he has a great chance of winning despite the handfuls of protesters.
Who knows he may just bring jobs back to Europe, Canada etc. A prosperous United States means good things on the commerce side for many.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Coolerman on June 10, 2016, 03:06:27 PM
Interesting discussion. I'm divided on this one.

One one hand I believe we have barely even begun to understand how interactions, between the many variables that influence our climate, actually work. Hell we don't even know what all the variables are! Our climate models are just coming out of the stone age, I mean, they are just now starting to include the oceans in their models! We still don't even understand exactly how the oceans affect climate. 

We are slowly learning! Our ability to capture, and understand the data, captured over the years from our instruments is constantly improving. Our ability to extract climate data from ice cores, tree rings, and rock samples is truly amazing. However, we have a long way to go before we will truly understand how all the variables involved in climate really work.

But...   Just because we don't really understand how all this works, and the fact that some of the data may be flawed by our capture techniques, or by our not understanding it, or even by outright falsification, does not mean we should ignore the fact that CO2 levels ARE increasing, and we ARE one of the causes. If we wait until we truly understand what is happening, I'm afraid it will be too late for planet earth. (Think Venus)

I know that in reality, it will be impossible to get the world as a whole to stop, or even slow down carbon emissions. The world currently has nothing to replace it's carbon burning for energy with! China, India and the some smaller countries do not have the will, nor the ability, in some cases to implement such plans. Here in the US politics as usual will prevent it from EVER happening. 

Oh, one last thing. Anyone who thinks Donald Trump is going to help with this issue is smoking something...
Anyway just food for thought...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 10, 2016, 04:34:59 PM
Interesting discussion. I'm divided on this one.

One one hand I believe we have barely even begun to understand how interactions, between the many variables that influence our climate, actually work. Hell we don't even know what all the variables are! Our climate models are just coming out of the stone age, I mean, they are just now starting to include the oceans in their models! We still don't even understand exactly how the oceans affect climate. 

We are slowly learning! Our ability to capture, and understand the data, captured over the years from our instruments is constantly improving. Our ability to extract climate data from ice cores, tree rings, and rock samples is truly amazing. However, we have a long way to go before we will truly understand how all the variables involved in climate really work.

But...   Just because we don't really understand how all this works, and the fact that some of the data may be flawed by our capture techniques, or by our not understanding it, or even by outright falsification, does not mean we should ignore the fact that CO2 levels ARE increasing, and we ARE one of the causes. If we wait until we truly understand what is happening, I'm afraid it will be too late for planet earth. (Think Venus)

I know that in reality, it will be impossible to get the world as a whole to stop, or even slow down carbon emissions. The world currently has nothing to replace it's carbon burning for energy with! China, India and the some smaller countries do not have the will, nor the ability, in some cases to implement such plans. Here in the US politics as usual will prevent it from EVER happening. 

Oh, one last thing. Anyone who thinks Donald Trump is going to help with this issue is smoking something...
Anyway just food for thought...

 =D> =D> =D>
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on August 02, 2016, 06:07:59 PM
I dont want to start another flame discussion, so lets not discuss whether or not this is caused by humans (you all know my opinion and I respect other people's views), but lets just look at the bare facts:

- Earth's fever got worse last year, breaking dozens of climate records, scientists said in a massive report nicknamed the annual physical for the planet.
- Soon after 2015 ended, it was proclaimed the hottest on record.
- record heat energy absorbed by the oceans and lowest groundwater storage levels globally
- it's more than just numbers on a graph. Scientists said the turbo-charged climate affected walrus and penguin populations and played a role in dangerous algae blooms, such as one off the Pacific Northwest coast. And there were brutal heat waves all over the world, with ones in India and Pakistan killing thousands of people.
- 2015 was hottest year by huge margin
- every month for the last 14 months in a row (!) has been the warmest on record!

more info: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-records-smashed-2015-scientists-earth-annual-physical-exam-a7168986.html

As I said, I will not discuss whether or not it is "man-made global warming", but what really annoys me is when people who have absolutely no clue about these things say that "global warming" does not occur. Yes it does. And giving arguments such as "it was quite cold last week".

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ClaireAnderson on November 02, 2016, 01:04:41 AM
The Global warming is one of the reasons that the climate and the global temperature is changing every year. The hot temperature in the areas are becoming more intense. Global warming is raising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting the glaciers and ice sheets, and it is also warming the ocean surfaces which is leading to increased temperature stratification. But there are some people that do not agree that the global warming can cause climate changes. But we cannot ignore the fact that the climate is changing all around the world.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on November 02, 2016, 10:32:16 AM
Again, this whole discussion about Global Warming and climate change is so politicized. Whether the fact about data tampering is true or not, the impression of doctoring the data for political reasons IS a perception the many have taken for reality. Also you are seeing posts about wrongly placed instruments and stations that have not been maintained for quite sometime but are still contributing to the overall data set. We are seeing jabs being thrown by both sides of the argument that the other is using Global warming as an excuse for further funding needs and continuation for studies just for the sake of employment longevity and not the TRUTH....

Unless each person can perform their own studies and have an extensive knowledge and climatic impacts upon the world, we only have the so-called experts to rely on and we hope they are truthful and not biased by political or monetary influences...

Does the earth appear to be entering a warm phase? Looks that way.. Is it affect by mankind's industrial output, to some extent , yes. But to what impact is it having? Do we have enough data points to go back 100s, if not thousands of years, to truly understand the impacts... who knows.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 02, 2016, 11:47:27 AM
I find perturbing behavior in the self proclaimed expert on climate change saying others have no clue even making fun by saying they use arguments such as "it was quite cold last week". Yet this same person has mentioned a dozen times how it snowed when growing up and now doesn't. "Proof in this experts mind its warming".

Yes its a hot topic and politicized, especially in the USA but bottom line its all about making money..(Green Money) and keeping billions flowing into nonsense research.

The 97 percent of scientists agreeing global warming is man caused has been completely debunked. 31,000 American scientists alone have signed a petition challenging the climate change narrative and 9,029 of them hold PHD's.

The one guy I believe is NASA atmospheric scientist John L. Casey who revealed solar cycles are largely responsible for warming periods on Earth – not human activity.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 02, 2016, 11:59:31 AM
I find perturbing behavior in the self proclaimed expert on climate change saying others have no clue even making fun by saying they use arguments such as "it was quite cold last week". Yet this same person has mentioned a dozen times how it snowed when growing up and now doesn't. "Proof in this experts mind its warming".

Yes its a hot topic and politicized, especially in the USA but bottom line its all about making money..(Green Money) and keeping billions flowing into nonsense research.

The 97 percent of scientists agreeing global warming is man caused has been completely debunked. 31,000 American scientists alone have signed a petition challenging the climate change narrative and 9,029 of them hold PHD's.

The one guy I believe is NASA atmospheric scientist John L. Casey who revealed solar cycles are largely responsible for warming periods on Earth – not human activity.

Wow! Well stated! Can I vote for you for president?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 02, 2016, 11:59:43 AM
I never said Im an expert on climate change, I said I have access to first hand data and I can see it. And yes there is a difference between a 30-year period (I will be 30 next yr) and next week.

What strikes me most is how all the conspiracy theorists try to find flaws in evidence and try to look for evidences against the proclaimed facts. Yet very often they totally disregard the credibility of those very proofs they use to disprove the other ones.

What I mean is, for example, after 9/11 there were many people saying this was all done and planned by the U.S. government etc etc. Then there was one guy and he wanted to prove exactly what I mention above. So he created a fake video where he photoshoped some obviously controlled explosions in some of the buildings. He put it on YT and said this was taken by some tourists and immediately it went viral and these conspiracy therists used it as major evidence of their believes. They absolutely didnt question the credibility of that video itself, even though that guy even on purpose made it very easy to spot that there is something weird about it (all the explosions looked the same, if you zoomed in a lot you could see they are pasted in and were not there originally and you could even find the original video from which this one was made, without the explosions, just horizontally flipped). He later on published an article about this, and until then, so many people used it as fundamental proof of their believes.

So in this case, you are saying that it is the government that wants us to believe this etc etc., trying to deny global warming. However, do you have any undeniable proof that this is the case?

In scientific terms this is called "confirmation bias", you can look it up.

Quote
In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 02, 2016, 12:02:17 PM
And one more thing, you have to distinguish between "global warming" and "global warming caused by humans"

I am not so sure about the latter, but I am sure about the first one and when you say:

Quote
The one guy I believe is NASA atmospheric scientist John L. Casey who revealed solar cycles are largely responsible for warming periods on Earth – not human activity.

Then you are basically agreeing with me, because that is global warming too, it doesn´t matter if it is us or the solar cycles, global warming means temperatures rise. Whether we caused this is a much more difficult question, to which I also dont have an answer and dont necessarily think it is 100% us who caused it.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 02, 2016, 12:50:52 PM
And one more thing, you have to distinguish between "global warming" and "global warming caused by humans"

I am not so sure about the latter, but I am sure about the first one and when you say:

Quote
The one guy I believe is NASA atmospheric scientist John L. Casey who revealed solar cycles are largely responsible for warming periods on Earth – not human activity.

Then you are basically agreeing with me, because that is global warming too, it doesn´t matter if it is us or the solar cycles, global warming means temperatures rise. Whether we caused this is a much more difficult question, to which I also dont have an answer and dont necessarily think it is 100% us who caused it.

Yes, agree when we warm its do to solar activity.
Warming is actually a good thing I just don't want another ice age anytime soon.

History according to Paleoclimatologists. End of graph is expanded into last 20,000 years but look at block prior 20-100,000 years ago how we spike high and cool. We are in a warmer period now, no argument.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 02, 2016, 01:11:37 PM
And one more thing, you have to distinguish between "global warming" and "global warming caused by humans"

I am not so sure about the latter, but I am sure about the first one and when you say:

Quote
The one guy I believe is NASA atmospheric scientist John L. Casey who revealed solar cycles are largely responsible for warming periods on Earth – not human activity.

Then you are basically agreeing with me, because that is global warming too, it doesn´t matter if it is us or the solar cycles, global warming means temperatures rise. Whether we caused this is a much more difficult question, to which I also dont have an answer and dont necessarily think it is 100% us who caused it.

Yes, agree when we warm its do to solar activity.
Warming is actually a good thing I just don't want another ice age anytime soon.

History according to Paleoclimatologists. End of graph is expanded into last 20,000 years but look at block prior 20-100,000 years ago how we spike high and cool. We are in a warmer period now, no argument.

I know and I know that in the past there were times when the global average T was higher than now, as well as the CO2 levels, the only problem now is that the changes are happening suspiciously fast and we as humans could not be the cause but rather something that speeds it up and the question is what effects these fast changes are going to have. I have no doubt that the planet is somehow going to deal with it, but what effects it is going to have on us humans is also a question.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 02, 2016, 01:23:22 PM
I was expecting something like this :D

Of course that if someone looks at it like "I dont care whats gonna be in 100 yrs, Im not gonna be here", then yes, in such case, any measures taken as prevention in case global warming is caused by humans (because even if we are not sure, it would be too late if we are sure in the future and precaution is always a good thing), can be viewed as undesirable, economically not efficient etc.

I personally do care about what will be in the future and I also believe that even if for example humans are doomed and no matter what, we wont be here in X number of years, then at least we could say we tried.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 02, 2016, 02:57:27 PM


I personally do care about what will be in the future and I also believe that even if for example humans are doomed and no matter what, we wont be here in X number of years, then at least we could say we tried.

Very true we do only have X number of years especially if we don't get ready. We could go just like the dinosaurs did, it only takes another large meteor impact taking us all out or even super volcano like Yellowstone could destroy half the worlds population. 
Myself and others would rather see billions $$ spent researching how to stop another super meteor impact instead of wasting resources when we have zero control over the suns energy.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on November 02, 2016, 03:36:23 PM
Out of those "31,000 scientists" how many actually have any education in climatology?

In 2001 SA tried to verify a random sample of 30 names on the list. They were able to ID 26. 11 said they still agreed, of those 11 only 3 had any education in a relevant field. 6 others said they would not sign it again today, 3 did not even remember signing it, 1 was dead and 5 didn't answer.


Just saying, anyone can spin the "facts" to suit their needs :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 02, 2016, 04:33:12 PM
Look I am not saying you are wrong, likewise you cannot say I am wrong. None of us will ever be able to 100% prove to the other that their point is right. I myself disagree with you, but I completely respect your opinions and I am not saying my opinion is the absolute right one. I just expressed it.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 17, 2016, 08:05:53 PM
good info here on the current global situation (up to and including October, for the year to date..and November is on track to break records as well globally)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201610
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 17, 2016, 08:13:22 PM
I think that you wont find much agreement here Brian (I tried so many times...) it has been quite cold here for the last week you know... :D
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 17, 2016, 08:19:11 PM
ah, but the USA is having a very warm November  ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bunty on November 17, 2016, 10:46:11 PM
Out of those "31,000 scientists" how many actually have any education in climatology?

In 2001 SA tried to verify a random sample of 30 names on the list. They were able to ID 26. 11 said they still agreed, of those 11 only 3 had any education in a relevant field. 6 others said they would not sign it again today, 3 did not even remember signing it, 1 was dead and 5 didn't answer.


Just saying, anyone can spin the "facts" to suit their needs :)

It was a very unscientifically done petition: 
https://www.skepticalscience.com/OISM-Petition-Project.htm (https://www.skepticalscience.com/OISM-Petition-Project.htm)
http://www.snopes.com/30000-scientists-reject-climate-change/ (http://www.snopes.com/30000-scientists-reject-climate-change/)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 17, 2016, 11:22:00 PM
Out of those "31,000 scientists" how many actually have any education in climatology?

In 2001 SA tried to verify a random sample of 30 names on the list. They were able to ID 26. 11 said they still agreed, of those 11 only 3 had any education in a relevant field. 6 others said they would not sign it again today, 3 did not even remember signing it, 1 was dead and 5 didn't answer.


Just saying, anyone can spin the "facts" to suit their needs :)

It was a very unscientifically done petition: 
https://www.skepticalscience.com/OISM-Petition-Project.htm (https://www.skepticalscience.com/OISM-Petition-Project.htm)
http://www.snopes.com/30000-scientists-reject-climate-change/ (http://www.snopes.com/30000-scientists-reject-climate-change/)

And your point is.....?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 05:14:12 AM
It has taken so long to achieve this:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/13/trump-looking-at-quickest-way-to-quit-paris-climate-agreement-says-report

I have also tried to be polite on this forum, so I will try not to break the habit and I will not swear... maybe all Im going to say is that if this *** "expert" understands other things as well as he believes he understands global warming then good luck America....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on November 18, 2016, 07:51:26 AM
I hope HE rips the ******* up today!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 08:35:17 AM
Well, all I can say it that it is quite sad that the nation that is to a great extent also responsible, is completely ignorant to it. Here in Europe most people think differently and dont care just about their current economical benefit regardless of what the consequences will be. But there really is no point in continuing this conversation.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on November 18, 2016, 09:02:52 AM
Worry about the EU & not the USA! You go your direction & we will go ours.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 09:10:51 AM
Yes, very nice approach. So if we decide here that we will blow of a nuclear power plant (located here) you won´t care either right?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: AWL on November 18, 2016, 09:12:05 AM
Well, all I can say it that it is quite sad that the nation that is to a great extent also responsible, is completely ignorant to it. Here in Europe most people think differently and dont care just about their current economical benefit regardless of what the consequences will be. But there really is no point in continuing this conversation.

I agree. This is no longer a good debate when everyone that doesn't agree with someone's opinion is ignorant.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 12:27:44 PM
did anyone read the link I posted?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on November 18, 2016, 12:42:04 PM
Yes, and the findings are appalling.  Arctic sea ice is well under the usual coverage for this time of the year. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: kmahler on November 18, 2016, 12:45:23 PM
This always gets me in trouble but here goes...

If, "the science is settled" on a topic, why then do the scientist keep getting caught changing the data?

If, "97% of scientist agree", why then do scientists who's studies were used to come up with that number, not agree with the conclusions that Cook published?

If, "An Inconvenient Truth" was really a Truth why is NYC not underwater today?

If, the polar caps are melting at an extraordinary pace, why was an article just published showing there is more polar ice today than in a very long time?

These and many other questions seem to indicate that the science is not settled and the more that climate alarmists yell and scream in our face that we are ignorant for ignoring the science, I just become more deaf to their message.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 01:01:42 PM
The problem is exactly what I mentioned in the past - the so-called "confirmation bias"

If you want to believe something, you will always find reasons/evidences for it, even though they might be irrelevant or just a minority. There could be dozens of articles about something and one against it and these people will pick this one and say - this debunks the other ones.

I will give you one example - even on this forum, I remember people said "but it was much warmer already in the past, this is not something unusual". The funny thing is that these same people than also argue that the old stations were not accurate enough and that we only have direct measurements of temperatures and CO2 for about 100 years. The funny thing is that the fact that it was much warmer in the past is also based on the very same data (ice core) which also concluded it has never been rising this fast and that it is related to the GHG emissions.

So if your argument is that these theories of how unusual this is are wrong, then you must also admit that your evidences for the fact this is "normal" are just as suspicious.

Very often I also hear the argument:
"This is because that is what the governments want us to believe."
Well, OK, but I can then say:
"The fact that there is no global warming is what many companies (oil etc.) want us to believe and there is a huge lobby for this to be presented to the public".  - the exact opposite, but just as valid.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 01:27:35 PM
some on this thread say that the warming is part of natural cycles, e.g solar  or similar
if that was the case, then we should be cooling down again, as the sun goes into what could be an even deeper minimum than the last one (which resulted in no cooling but could have contributed to the 'hiatus' (which is well and truly broken now, as this year is shaping up to break last years record which broke the records before that which broke the records before that)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 01:32:07 PM
One thing that I dont understand is this:

none of us has primary data. We all base our opinions on data available.

Yes you are right some scientists will give you evidence that GW is not happening. But as it was mentioned earlier, 97% will say there is indeed GW going on.

My question therefore is - either side could be right and either side provides arguments.

Why do you choose to believe 3 people rather than 97. And arguments like "thats what they want us to believe" etc. I dont take since I can say the exact same thing about oil companies and similar.

You can of course find some evidences that something that scientists said will happen regarding GW did not, but again, you are choosing one specific thing and there is dozens of other things that they predicted and did happen.

So the point is - for each argument for, you will find one against and vice versa. And so we are back to the original question - 97 people are on one side and 3 on the other.... some people choose to believe the 3, which I dont quite get. Only reason I can think of is that it makes their life easier (for now...)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 01:33:27 PM
Well at least some slightly positive news from Europe...
http://www.iflscience.com/environment/france-shut-down-coal-power-plants-2023/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Scalphunter on November 18, 2016, 02:04:38 PM
And what ice charts are you looking at Ken? Our state wide weather here shows new shore fast ice growing to close the gap with the sea ice in fact  by the Alcan east of Prudhoe Bay it is closed up.  Along the Bering Straits ice is forming in all the Sounds down to the Chain.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 18, 2016, 02:11:21 PM
The bottom line to this climate change argument is you can find any study to support your position whatever it may be. Unfortunate but that is the reality of this issue. And, very few minds on either side of this issue will change his or her position or belief based on a new study or posting in this Forum!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 02:28:44 PM
good read here about what's currently happening at the north pole:
Quote
"This is the second year in a row that temperatures near the North Pole have risen to freakishly warm levels. During 2015's final days, the temperature near the Pole spiked to the melting point thanks to a massive storm that pumped warm air into the region.

So what's going on here?

"It's about 20C (36 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean, along with cold anomalies of about the same magnitude over north-central Asia," Jennifer Francis, an Arctic specialist at Rutgers University, said by email Wednesday.

"The Arctic warmth is the result of a combination of record-low sea-ice extent for this time of year, probably very thin ice, and plenty of warm/moist air from lower latitudes being driven northward by a very wavy jet stream."

Francis has published research suggesting that the jet stream, which travels from west to east across the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-latitudes, is becoming more wavy and elongated as the Arctic warms faster than the equator does.

"It will be fascinating to see if the stratospheric polar vortex continues to be as weak as it is now, which favors a negative Arctic Oscillation and probably a cold mid/late winter to continue over central and eastern Asia and eastern North America. The extreme behavior of the Arctic in 2016 seems to be in no hurry to quit," Francis continued.

Francis cited the work of Judah Cohen, a forecaster with Atmospheric and Environmental Research, who has linked odd jet stream behavior with cold air over Siberia.

Indeed, another Arctic expert, James Overland with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said that the jet stream at the moment is well configured to transport warmth northward into the Arctic. "There is strong warm advection into the Arctic, especially northern-central Canada, in through the Atlantic, and east Siberian/Chukchi Sea," Overland said.

The whole situation is pretty extreme, several experts agreed.

"Both the persistence and magnitude of these temperature anomalies are quite unusual," Labe added by email. "Large variability in temperatures are common in the Arctic (especially during the cold-season), but the duration of this warm Arctic - cold Siberia pattern is unusual and quite an impressive crysophere/sea ice feedback." (The "cryosphere" refers to that part of the Earth's system that is made up of ice.)

Abnormally warm air has flooded the Arctic since October. Richard James, a meteorologist who pens a blog on Alaska weather, analyzed 19 weather stations surrounding the Arctic Ocean and found that the average temperature was about 4 degrees (2 Celsius) above the record set in 1998.

Since November, temperatures have risen even higher. "It is amazing to see that the warmth has become even more pronounced since the end of October," James wrote on his blog.

Mark Serreze, who heads the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, agrees that something odd is going on. Not only are air temperatures unusually warm, but water temperatures are as well. "There's some areas in the Arctic ocean that are as much as 25 degrees Fahrenheit above average now," Serreze said. "It's pretty crazy."

What's happening, he explains, is sort of a "double whammy." On the one hand, there is a "very warm underlying ocean" due to the lack of sea ice forming above it. But, at the same time, kinks in the jet stream have allowed warm air to flow northward and frigid Arctic air to descend over Siberia.

"The sea ice is at a record low right now, for this time of year, that's one thing," Serreze said. "And why it's so low - again, there's so much heat in the upper ocean in these ice free areas, the ice just can't form right now. The ocean's just got to get rid of this heat somehow, and it's having a hard time doing so."

The situation this winter could set the Arctic's ice up for very thin conditions and a possible record low next year, Serreze said, although it's too soon to say.

The weather in the Arctic can change swiftly. Temperatures could cool and the ice could rebound.

But the record-low sea ice extent and unprecedented warmth in the region fit in well with recent trends and portend even more profound changes in the coming years."
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 18, 2016, 02:38:42 PM
good read here about what's currently happening at the north pole:
Quote
"This is the second year in a row that temperatures near the North Pole have risen to freakishly warm levels. During 2015's final days, the temperature near the Pole spiked to the melting point thanks to a massive storm that pumped warm air into the region.

So what's going on here?

...

Since November, temperatures have risen even higher. "It is amazing to see that the warmth has become even more pronounced since the end of October," James wrote on his blog.

Mark Serreze, who heads the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, agrees that something odd is going on. Not only are air temperatures unusually warm, but water temperatures are as well. "There's some areas in the Arctic ocean that are as much as 25 degrees Fahrenheit above average now," Serreze said. "It's pretty crazy."

What's happening, he explains, is sort of a "double whammy." On the one

But the record-low sea ice extent and unprecedented warmth in the region fit in well with recent trends and portend even more profound changes in the coming years."

I stand by my prior post, this "study" isn't going to change any minds on the topic of climate change!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 02:58:07 PM
people should have open minds and be able to change your mind
unless you think you happen to know more than the experts that is
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 03:10:30 PM
http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13428
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 03:26:29 PM
reading that article, it seems to mix things up alot
one sentence is reads
Quote
in the past decade, a slowdown in the rate of warming on global respiration
so this article is refering to global respiration as a component of global warming

then next sentence
Quote
during the recent slowdown in global warming

but that slow down is well and truely over
also its important to note the article re refering to growth rates of co2 slowing..but that co2 levels are still going up..as you still have a positive rate..its just that the rate of increase has decreased...and this article atributes that to increased plant growth due to more co2...so a bit of negative feedback going on there (negative in that the more co2 in the atmosphere is making plants grow faster which means they are taking up more co2...but 
that is not making co2 levels stop increasing..just slowing down that increase a bit...so does that mean you carry on emitting co2 a bit more?)

i.e be carefull to not miss the point that a pause in growth rate of CO2 does not mean CO2 levels have stopped going up..they are still going up..at the current growth rate....is just that the rate of increase (of the growth rate) is not increasing all the time..which is a good thing..
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 03:37:05 PM
It doesn't mix things up at all.

One big problem is that not all the feedback loops involved in climate are well understood, or even known.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on November 18, 2016, 03:44:57 PM
Yes, very nice approach. So if we decide here that we will blow of a nuclear power plant (located here) you won´t care either right?

Not really, since Chernobyl is 5,306 km closer to my house than your nuclear power plant(s).
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on November 18, 2016, 04:02:27 PM
And what ice charts are you looking at Ken? Our state wide weather here shows new shore fast ice growing to close the gap with the sea ice in fact  by the Alcan east of Prudhoe Bay it is closed up.  Along the Bering Straits ice is forming in all the Sounds down to the Chain.

http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/2016-arctic-sea-ice-wintertime-extent-hits-another-record-low

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/arctic-sea-ice-annual-minimum-ties-second-lowest-on-record

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 04:16:09 PM
Quote
One big problem is that not all the feedback loops involved in climate are well understood, or even known.
true
which is why more research ..and funds are still needed
there is a theory that the oceans are now starting to take in in less CO2 (ie they are getting to saturation point)...so the above article about the biomass slowing down the rate of increase might be only temporary

so the article does not provide any reason to not try and not reduce green gas emissions if you ask me
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 04:22:51 PM
that last link you put up Ken sums things up nicely about the low ice extent at both poles now
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 04:33:10 PM
Quote
One big problem is that not all the feedback loops involved in climate are well understood, or even known.
true
which is why more research ..and funds are still needed
there is a theory that the oceans are now starting to take in in less CO2 (ie they are getting to saturation point)...so the above article about the biomass slowing down the rate of increase might be only temporary

so the article does not provide any reason to not try and not reduce green gas emissions if you ask me

Spot on Brian.

We dont know, the problem is: if we dont do anything and later discover we should have done something, it might be too late. Or we find out that it actually is not a problem in which case we will be ok too. So we have nothing to lose if we investigate further and try to take precaution measures.
If we dont do anything and it turns out to indeed be a problem, we are doomed.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 04:40:51 PM
Quote
One big problem is that not all the feedback loops involved in climate are well understood, or even known.
true
which is why more research ..and funds are still needed
there is a theory that the oceans are now starting to take in in less CO2 (ie they are getting to saturation point)...so the above article about the biomass slowing down the rate of increase might be only temporary

so the article does not provide any reason to not try and not reduce green gas emissions if you ask me

But it does show the science is not "settled" and politicians should stop trying to use it as a means of control.

And, of course, there's always this: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rise-in-global-carbon-emissions-slows/

Everyone's looking for "answers" to support their "argument".

And then there's this: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/17/us/midland-texas-mammoth-oil-discovery/index.html

The world is a complex place, and the science is far from settled.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 04:50:50 PM
Yes, so in the end we do agree that more research is necessary AND that until we know it is better to take precation measures (just in case) ...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 05:01:59 PM
re the Texas oil discovery nincehelser
if you read the article, its too expensive to get out of the ground at the current oil prices, even it is it technicly possible
so not sure what the point of posting that article is , in relation to this thread?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 05:11:06 PM
Yes, so in the end we do agree that more research is necessary AND that until we know it is better to take precation measures (just in case) ...

That would depend on the price of those "precautionary measures".
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 05:20:26 PM
re the Texas oil discovery nincehelser
if you read the article, its too expensive to get out of the ground at the current oil prices, even it is it technicly possible
so not sure what the point of posting that article is , in relation to this thread?

Yeah, I read the article, but I'm getting the impression you aren't too familiar with the energy industry.

The connection is that folks are going to use the cheapest energy available.  This looks to be a huge reserve without all the issues of foreign politics or pipelines across "sensitive" areas.  If and when it is needed, it will be tapped.  That is unless a better source of energy comes along.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 05:21:42 PM
Really?

Not that much would actually be necessary if you put it into perspective with other expenses like military etc. And IF it turns out we should have taken them and we did not, everything else will then become irrelevant. Well true that both of us probably dont have to worry, but then the thing is - Im not hostile towards what is going to happen to my grandchildren, various species etc.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 05:26:29 PM
re the Texas oil discovery nincehelser
if you read the article, its too expensive to get out of the ground at the current oil prices, even it is it technicly possible
so not sure what the point of posting that article is , in relation to this thread?

Yeah, I read the article, but I'm getting the impression you aren't too familiar with the energy industry.

The connection is that folks are going to use the cheapest energy available.  This looks to be a huge reserve without all the issues of foreign politics or pipelines across "sensitive" areas.  If and when it is needed, it will be tapped.  That is unless a better source of energy comes along.

Many people think that renewable sources are useless if you want to cover more than just a few % of total energy requirements, but did you know that for example an area of Spain covered with solar panels would satisfy world's total energy requirements? And of course solar is not the only renewable source, so it is actually not as much as people think and the expenses are also not so high.

And last but not least - you said "it depends on how much it would be" - but your new president wants to completely stop the research, withdraw from all agreements. Which is going to have big effect because other nations such as China are going to say well why should we care if they dont. It took so much effort to get there and we finally managed it last yr...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: graculus on November 18, 2016, 05:38:37 PM
Which is going to have big effect because other nations such as China are going to say well why should we care if they dont. It took so much effort to get there and we finally managed it last yr...

What exactly did China commit to in Paris?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 05:46:04 PM
Quote
China has announced its ratification of the Paris climate change agreement, paving the way for a hotly anticipated joint US-China statement on the fight against global warming later on Saturday.

Quote
China and the US together account for about 38% of global emissions. So if they ratify the agree

Quote
In order to fulfill its obligations under the Paris agreement Xinhua said China would need to cut carbon emissions by 60-65% per unit of GDP by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, and boost its use of non-fossil fuels so they accounted for 20% of its energy consumption.

It is sad that countries like the Czech Republic care a lot (people here either support this or they dont care, but I dont know of anyone - and Im dead serious - anyone who would say this is not happening), while the country that has a huge responsibility for this due to its size and population now wants to boycot this.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: graculus on November 18, 2016, 05:57:10 PM
It was a serious question to which I haven't found a good answer. According to the NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/asia/obama-xi-jinping-china-climate-accord.html) the reality is
Quote
China’s commitments, first made in 2014, have been less a concession to American pressure than a restatement of its own goals. They include a promise for China’s carbon emissions to reach a plateau or decline “around 2030,” but without any specific target for reductions like those Mr. Obama pledged for the United States (between 26 and 28 percent of 2005 levels by 2025). That means China has plenty of room to continue burning fossil fuels to power its economy.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 05:59:06 PM
That was 2014

Quote
China would need to cut carbon emissions by 60-65% per unit of GDP by 2030, compared with 2005 levels

The Paris agreement is quite recent and has been the first ever agreement between majority of the countries (yes China did not do anything prior to this - or they said they will, but did not)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 06:52:58 PM
Many people think that renewable sources are useless if you want to cover more than just a few % of total energy requirements, but did you know that for example an area of Spain covered with solar panels would satisfy world's total energy requirements? And of course solar is not the only renewable source, so it is actually not as much as people think and the expenses are also not so high.

And could you tell me how you would build an electrical distribution network for such an installation that would make sense?

What about base-load power?  What about the 1/3 of the US energy use that goes to transportation? Or how about any other of hundreds of devil-in-the-details engineering questions?

Quote
And last but not least - you said "it depends on how much it would be" - but your new president wants to completely stop the research, withdraw from all agreements. Which is going to have big effect because other nations such as China are going to say well why should we care if they dont. It took so much effort to get there and we finally managed it last yr...

Trump isn't going to "completely stop the research".  Here in the US we have a free-market which also applies to research.  What Trump has proposed is to stop subsidizing research and leave it to the private sector.   The US government has proven itself really bad at picking winners,  Solyndra being one famous example.

And that leads us back to politics again.  Not science.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 07:01:42 PM
Of course that building such solar power plant at one place and distributing it from there to the entire world would be absolute nonsense - it was just an example to illustrate that not such large area is required. So you could have for example one or two somewhere in the U.S., which would be much less than the area of Spain, much less, and would supply the whole US. Likewise there could be one or two in Europe etc etc. And in total they would have an area of Spain.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: kmahler on November 18, 2016, 07:11:25 PM
Many people think that renewable sources are useless if you want to cover more than just a few % of total energy requirements, but did you know that for example an area of Spain covered with solar panels would satisfy world's total energy requirements? And of course solar is not the only renewable source, so it is actually not as much as people think and the expenses are also not so high.

And last but not least - you said "it depends on how much it would be" - but your new president wants to completely stop the research, withdraw from all agreements. Which is going to have big effect because other nations such as China are going to say well why should we care if they dont. It took so much effort to get there and we finally managed it last yr...

See now you've hit on a point that really gets to me. In this (nearly) past administration the US Government invested over 105 BILLION dollars in companies making renewable energy products. Not one of these is still producing products today. Every one went bankrupt. Solyndra being the most notable. Now that 105 billion could have been used for many other purposes and don't think for a moment that I don't get pissed when my hard earned money is wasted on something I know will fail. While the land mass of Spain might produce enough solar energy for the world, how do you distribute it to the world? Changing an energy source not only requires the source, it requires a method of distribution to where the energy is needed. In the US we have tried several alternative fuels including E85. But, it's not widely available. It's the same price as gasoline or more expensive and it's less efficient. On top of all of that, the production of E85 drives up prices for foods including beef because of the large use of corn to produce E85. The entirety of the solutions must be considered. People drive around in their Prius feeling holier than thou without any regard to the massive damage production of the batteries creates to earth. The disposal of those batteries produces a lot of toxins. Many alternative fuel cars are death traps in accidents because of the fuels/energy.

Now don't go thinking I don't give a shit about the environment. I have cared and been involved in activities to clean up the world since I was a child. But, when you are having something shoved down your throat it doesn't matter if you like it or not. The natural reaction is to fight back. This bullying tactic used by climate alarmists is the crux of the problem.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 07:13:25 PM
Of course that building such solar power plant at one place and distributing it from there to the entire world would be absolute nonsense - it was just an example to illustrate that not such large area is required. So you could have for example one or two somewhere in the U.S., which would be much less than the area of Spain, much less, and would supply the whole US. Likewise there could be one or two in Europe etc etc. And in total they would have an area of Spain.

Yes.  It's absolute nonsense.

So let's break it down to 1 or 2 across the US (or more).  Realize we now have 3 grids (East, West, and Texas).  Please explain how you would distribute the power across long distances in an economical manner. 

I'm not meaning to be harsh with you, Jachym, but I get frustrated with all the folks out there that think electrical power just magically gets from point A to point B.  It's a considerable engineering challenge.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 07:45:38 PM
No I agree, but we are back to the point.

You guys are basically saying: "current situation is not good, but this is not a solution either"

Fine, I take that, but that brings us back again to the point we have to research and we have to try to find solutions. Saying this is not a solution and right now we dont have one, so lets just stick to the way we've been doing it up until now and pretend nothing is going to happen is the worst we can do.

I never said electric cars are not a problem - yes they are. But so are the current cars.

The fact that some money were probably wasted is also true - but again - so we say that since it did not work until now, it is never going to work? This is giving up. The only thing you can do is keep on trying. We all know that what is now is not a long-term solution.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 07:54:04 PM
When D.T was asked what he thinks about the fact that terrorists often use the Internet to commincate and it helps them, he said he is going to call Bill Gates to shut down the Internet.

Now... lets just ignore the fact he has absolutely no idea how Internet works (just like he does not have any idea about global warming) and that this is of course technically nonsense, lets just assume it was possible and the Internet was gone now. Would it solve the problem? Yes it would, but....

So with global warming it is the same thing. Current situation is not sustainable. Do we have solution? No. If we do not do anything, we will never have it. If we try to do something we also might fail, but we also have a chance to succeed. And unfortunately, everything has its pros and cons so the research etc. will of course have some negative consequences (costs etc.)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: graculus on November 18, 2016, 08:04:54 PM
That was 2014

Quote
China would need to cut carbon emissions by 60-65% per unit of GDP by 2030, compared with 2005 levels

The Paris agreement is quite recent and has been the first ever agreement between majority of the countries (yes China did not do anything prior to this - or they said they will, but did not)

Nope, that was SEPT. 3, 2016, "would need to" is not a commitment  ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 08:11:47 PM
Even if, does that make it any more acceptable for the U.S. to ignore it? No! It will only make things worse, and btw. U.S. is the amount one country in the number of GHGs released in modern history and even today, if you look at emissions per capita:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

You are pretty much right at the top, because all the other countries are very small in terms of population. China does have about twice as much in total, but it also has a population of 1.4 billion and also, it has only been this bad with China recently, 20 yrs ago they had much less. China is soon going to become the number one global economy and if they see no interest from other countries they are of course also going to ignore it.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 08:14:09 PM
No I agree, but we are back to the point.

You guys are basically saying: "current situation is not good, but this is not a solution either"

Fine, I take that, but that brings us back again to the point we have to research and we have to try to find solutions. Saying this is not a solution and right now we dont have one, so lets just stick to the way we've been doing it up until now and pretend nothing is going to happen is the worst we can do.

I never said electric cars are not a problem - yes they are. But so are the current cars.

The fact that some money were probably wasted is also true - but again - so we say that since it did not work until now, it is never going to work? This is giving up. The only thing you can do is keep on trying. We all know that what is now is not a long-term solution.

It's not giving up.  It's realizing there are better ways to spend our money.

For example, if we invested our engineering efforts in better/safer nuclear energy technology, then we could break away from the whole issue.

But unfortunately that's a political no-no by the same crowd pushing "renewables".
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 18, 2016, 08:20:07 PM
The bottom line to this climate change argument is you can find any study to support your position whatever it may be. Unfortunate but that is the reality of this issue. And, very few minds on either side of this issue will change his or her position or belief based on a new study or posting in this Forum!

I posted this earlier today, and guess what? The "discussion" and soliloquies added since proves my point once again. One might argue climate change supporters like bigger government and believe in a lot of hooey. The other side believes they have their heads in the sand, government can solve all problems real or perceived, and do not read the conclusions by professors, etc., that are paid from government grants to prove whose view?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 18, 2016, 08:41:08 PM
...and, some of us, just sit here on the sidelines and watch everybody else 'verbally' duke-it-out over something that NEITHER side has 100% proof for...

Well put!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 08:47:52 PM
I agree with building nuclear powerplants (not ideal, but better then coal), just like I agree with for example GMO (mostly because I have Msc in genetics and I know that it is just a lobby of companies and that GMO is safe and saved millions of lives in some parts of the world).

When I began working where I currently work, I was very disappointed when I saw that no-one recycles. There was one big trash can and everything was thrown there including paper, plastic bottles etc. I asked our secretary why it is so and why they cant get recycling bins. I was told that no-one would use and that our company wont pay for it anyway.
It took me over a year and it was discussed at several meetings of directors. Finally I achieved my goal - I bought the bins using my own money and I agreed that I will empty it and take it to the bus stop about 200m away because that is where the recycled waste is collected.

Now about 6 months after they were installed there, I empty them almost every single day! People do use them, even those who said they will not. I could also have said right at the beginning that they wont use it, but I thought I will try. And I could also have said that not doing this would save me time and work. Is this going to have some huge impact? Well probably not, but every little helps and if you resign then you are never going to get anywhere.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 08:54:54 PM
...and, some of us, just sit here on the sidelines and watch everybody else 'verbally' duke-it-out over something that NEITHER side has 100% proof for...

Absolutely correct, I am not saying my opinion is the right one, what Im trying to say all the time is that we should look for the proof because it is quite important
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 18, 2016, 08:57:35 PM
I agree with building nuclear powerplants (not ideal, but better then coal), just like I agree with for example GMO (mostly because I have Msc in genetics and I know that it is just a lobby of companies and that GMO is safe and saved millions of lives in some parts of the world).

....

When I began working where I currently work, I was very disappointed when I saw that no-one recycles. There was one big trash can and everything was thrown there including paper, plastic bottles etc. I asked our secretary why it is so and why they cant get recycling bins. I was told that no-one would use and that our company wont pay for it anyway.

....

What is your country, if anything, doing about plastic bags issued by retailers to carry purchases? Many people use these bags to line trash containers (wastebaskets) in the house and in turn placed in the trash when then taken to the local dump. Several cities here in the US are either banning them, taxing their use, or otherwise discouraging them.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 18, 2016, 09:21:07 PM
They banned their giving away for free,  but you can of course still buy them in the shops,  but people were just taking dozens with each shopping and wasting them
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 18, 2016, 09:28:47 PM
They banned their giving away for free,  but you can of course still buy them in the shops,  but people were just taking dozens with each shopping and wasting them

Another government intrusion. Pretty soon, we will be required to use the bathroom at specified times to balance the public sewer system.  People living in even numbered residences will have from the top of the hour to half past the hour--odd numbered residences will have the other 30 minutes. Violators will be subject to flogging or worse yet, listening to politicians pontificate how they are here to help us!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on November 18, 2016, 09:52:17 PM
They banned their giving away for free,  but you can of course still buy them in the shops,  but people were just taking dozens with each shopping and wasting them

Another government intrusion. Pretty soon, we will be required to use the bathroom at specified times. People living in even numbered residences will have from the top of the hour to half past the hour--odd numbered residences will have the other 30 minutes. Violators will be subject to flogging or worse yet, listening to politicians pontificate how they are here to help us!
Off topic, and seems to be only a venting re 'government intrusion'.

Here in California, we recently passed a proposition to stop throw-away plastic bags for groceries.  Small-fee ($0.10/each) paper will be available, and reusable bags are already sold.. I have a bunch.  Throw-away plastic bags do create a landfill mess, a litter mess and have a fairly large carbon footprint.  That they are not usually biodegradable just adds to their problems.  Here (in CA), the people decided this.. and it's not 'government intrusion'.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on November 18, 2016, 10:06:27 PM
They banned their giving away for free,  but you can of course still buy them in the shops,  but people were just taking dozens with each shopping and wasting them

Another government intrusion. Pretty soon, we will be required to use the bathroom at specified times. People living in even numbered residences will have from the top of the hour to half past the hour--odd numbered residences will have the other 30 minutes. Violators will be subject to flogging or worse yet, listening to politicians pontificate how they are here to help us!
Off topic, and seems to be only a venting re 'government intrusion'.

Here in California, we recently passed a proposition to stop throw-away plastic bags for groceries. and it's not 'government intrusion'.
I say again, =D>, at least on this.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 18, 2016, 11:00:48 PM
@ninechester
Quote
Yeah, I read the article, but I'm getting the impression you aren't too familiar with the energy industry.

not sure where that came for and if its really warranted at all
its simple economics that until the price of oil goes up, the hard to get oil is not economical to extract
(that's not to say that once it becomes economical to extract they wont do it...i.e the world is not going to run out of oil anytime soon)
it basicly says that in your article you posted a link to
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: nincehelser on November 18, 2016, 11:08:42 PM
@ninechester
Quote
Yeah, I read the article, but I'm getting the impression you aren't too familiar with the energy industry.

not sure where that came for and if its really warranted at all
its simple economics that until the price of oil goes up, the hard to get oil is not economical to extract
(that's not to say that once it becomes economical to extract they wont do it...i.e the world is not going to run out of oil anytime soon)
it basicly says that in your article you posted a link to

It's warranted given our past interaction.

I know what the article said and I have the background to understand it. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bunty on November 19, 2016, 02:41:00 AM
...and, some of us, just sit here on the sidelines and watch everybody else 'verbally' duke-it-out over something that NEITHER side has 100% proof for...

They might as well give up and put plans in place as to how to deal with the future effects of global warming, such as sustained droughts in large urban areas, more intense storms, and coastal cities being swallowed up by rising sea levels.  Where is the money coming from to deal with that?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 22, 2016, 08:22:37 PM
Looks like there is some hope...
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/shift-trump-says-humans-may-causing-global-warming/
 8-)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Scalphunter on November 22, 2016, 08:47:14 PM
That last source of new source I would use an government fund liberal news.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on November 22, 2016, 10:14:45 PM
Or, he could be fishing & just caught one  :!:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Scalphunter on November 22, 2016, 10:46:50 PM
lot of guppies out their and I yet have to see Jac come up with anything that is positive  beyond his job.  Artic is warming up  because of an storm track has changes a few years back.  Since mid 80's the majority of the storms been tracking  up the Bering sea.  No land masses to block the flow .  Those  storms use to track into SEAK and then into Canada and  down across the US.   I have yet to see anyone  bring that up.

Also remember the   big earthquake in japan  were  Japan  move 8 feet and it tilted the earth axis. Have yet to see any one  touch that in the so called  global warming. Tilt the earth the wrong direction  more artic lands get expose to the sun.  Inuit elders  noticed it  but  NASA didn't.

 Guess us simple folks  with out the PHD's  can see stuff that  data  gathers can't see because the an tree in  the way  of the forest.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 22, 2016, 11:53:56 PM
yes, the jet streams have changed alot..which is changing where storms track, and is causing more blocking too, and that is part of the climate change that is related to gobal warming
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bunty on November 23, 2016, 02:59:45 AM
That last source of new source I would use an government fund liberal news.

All it did was quote Trump.  What would be a good source for new for you?  InfoWars.com?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 23, 2016, 05:28:45 AM
No, dont worry I dont have a PhD (and most likely wont have one if thats what interests you) and I was just trying to say that he did exactly what I thought he would do.... he was making very strong statements to get people´s support but he knew that pursuing these goals in reality would be a problem in such extent...
eg: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/22/politics/conway-no-clinton-charges-donald-trump/

And yes your points are indeed valid, but I believe my points (i.e. points of global warming supporters) are just as valid and we could have this debate about confidence bias again :-)

These changes he is now making in terms of his actions come as no surprise to me. It was relatively obvious that he was just trying to get votes, not obliging to anything, but he knew very well that he will have to be very careful about how far he would go. He is not the president of the world and has to also respect and take into account other peoples´ decisions.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 23, 2016, 08:10:53 AM

It is sad that countries like the Czech Republic care a lot (people here either support this or they dont care, but I dont know of anyone - and Im dead serious - anyone who would say this is not happening), while the country that has a huge responsibility for this due to its size and population now wants to boycott this.

The world may not have to put up with Trump for very long if this college professor's prediction is correct:  http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%e2%80%98prediction-professor%e2%80%99-who-called-trump%e2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=HPCDHP (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%e2%80%98prediction-professor%e2%80%99-who-called-trump%e2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=HPCDHP)

I reported this as political and inappropriate. Posting what some liberal POS says offends me.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on November 23, 2016, 08:32:53 AM
HE was just a vehicle that 85% of every county in America (available at the county to county electoral U.S.A. map, except both of our left coastal counties) got in & are driving it to change our direction. It would not make any difference if Daffy Duck or Frog Horn Leg Horn was driving/running. As long as the direction was opposite from where we have been heading, that is the vehicle most folks are getting into.

Same thing is going on over on the other side of the pond(s) as well (Brexit), but some folks are in denial, just as they were & still are here.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bunty on November 23, 2016, 11:53:12 AM

It is sad that countries like the Czech Republic care a lot (people here either support this or they dont care, but I dont know of anyone - and Im dead serious - anyone who would say this is not happening), while the country that has a huge responsibility for this due to its size and population now wants to boycott this.

The world may not have to put up with Trump for very long if this college professor's prediction is correct:  http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%e2%80%98prediction-professor%e2%80%99-who-called-trump%e2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=HPCDHP (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%e2%80%98prediction-professor%e2%80%99-who-called-trump%e2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=HPCDHP)

I reported this as political and inappropriate. Posting what some liberal POS says offends me.

I don't think so, since climate change has become political.  By the way, what's the big deal?  You weren't personally attacked.  Bad weather offends me more than Trump's view on climate change, but then he changes his mind about as much as the  weather.

 I don't mind politics that can be related into weather related topics.  But personal attacks and/or name calling should not be tolerated on here.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 23, 2016, 12:04:51 PM

It is sad that countries like the Czech Republic care a lot (people here either support this or they dont care, but I dont know of anyone - and Im dead serious - anyone who would say this is not happening), while the country that has a huge responsibility for this due to its size and population now wants to boycott this.

The world may not have to put up with Trump for very long if this college professor's prediction is correct:  http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%e2%80%98prediction-professor%e2%80%99-who-called-trump%e2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=HPCDHP (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%e2%80%98prediction-professor%e2%80%99-who-called-trump%e2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=HPCDHP)

I reported this as political and inappropriate. Posting what some liberal POS says offends me.

I don't think so, since climate change has become political.  By the way, what's the big deal?  You weren't personally attacked.  Bad weather offends me more than Trump's view on climate change, but then he changes his mind about as much as the  weather.

 I don't mind politics that can be related into weather related topics.  But personal attacks and/or name calling should not be tolerated on here.

The big deal is I take it personally when you bash someone I support because of your views I disagree with. The greatest thing Trump can do is stop throwing billions of hard earned American tax dollars toward a Lie/hoax you name it. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 23, 2016, 12:13:30 PM
and spend it here instead...

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/politics/donald-trump-defense-spending-sequester/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on November 23, 2016, 03:34:42 PM
"Successful" people are known to tell others what they "...WANT to hear...", NOT what they "...NEED to hear..."
I'd suggest a small mod to that...

"Successful" people politicians are known to tell others what they "...WANT to hear...", NOT what they "...NEED to hear..."

and that may be what causes many of our issues -- much cognitive dissonance in the air currently.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Scalphunter on November 23, 2016, 04:07:03 PM
Quote
All it did was quote Trump.  What would be a good source for new for you?  InfoWars.com?

Nope old fashion here.  Something most folks don't have anymore.  An old Hallicrafter  Shortwave Radio.  I just tune into several  broadcasts that we use to listen to when at sea.   Several of them are  foreign station so I get an broad picture  of the happening.  I beats  your TV and internet news and the only cost is  finding tubes to keep it going.

John
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Scalphunter on November 23, 2016, 04:19:59 PM
35 words an minute to  boot.  Still do  Morse here on ham set. and when not on that it the old model 28 ASR.

John
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 23, 2016, 05:58:12 PM
this graphic shows how much the polar regions are warmer than normal
(which is what the models showed would happen, that the poles would warm the most)
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on November 23, 2016, 06:03:50 PM
CW & Morris code!

Isn't it Morse code?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 23, 2016, 06:11:59 PM
-.-- . ... / .. - / .. ...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 23, 2016, 06:17:11 PM
this graphic shows how much the polar regions are warmer than normal
(which is what the models showed would happen, that the poles would warm the most)
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

Nobody is disputing its not warming it is....The earth has had 78 major changes since 2500 BC.
Wind farms and electric cars won't stop the warming or the next ice-age. 
[youtube]https://youtu.be/yegKl2nKBQI[/youtube]
http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 23, 2016, 06:26:42 PM
that graphic is out of date
as global temperatures are now much warmer above 'normal' than what it shows
if the global temperature does not drop below 'norma' in the next 20 years, like what that graphic you posted predicts,will you eat your hat ValentineWeather?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on November 23, 2016, 06:27:40 PM
this graphic shows how much the polar regions are warmer than normal
(which is what the models showed would happen, that the poles would warm the most)
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

Nobody is disputing its not warming it is....The earth has had 78 major changes since 2500 BC.
Wind farms and electric cars won't stop the warming or the next ice-age. 
[youtube]https://youtu.be/yegKl2nKBQI[/youtube]
http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm

Yeah, but we need to buy some time before Elon starts selling one-way tickets to Mars ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on November 24, 2016, 07:07:07 PM
one issue I have with the graphic posted by ValentineWeather is it shows a very large global cool down in 1991
but I have not seen anything else like that in other data
e.g
http://climate.nasa.gov/
only shows a 0.1C decrease around that time
and not an over 1F drop like that graphic shows

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on December 27, 2016, 12:10:02 AM
the video in this blog is very informative and well presented (but long)
http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2016/12/16/two-broadcast-meteorologists-working-separate-real-fake/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WeatherHost on January 13, 2017, 05:52:07 PM
Skips a bunch of pages....

In my boredom, I started going back through some charts I've been keeping for the last 5 years of daily highs and lows.  I started checking on records available from our local WFO; High, Low, Lowest High and Highest Low.  I went over my chart and color coded each record over the 4 complete years I have 2013, 14, 15 and 16.

I found 42 record daily lows or lowest highs and 42 record highs or highest lows.  I was not expecting to find equal counts.  Notably most of the cold numbers were in '15 and most of the warm numbers were in '16.

I didn't dig into things like how much the records were different from normal, etc. or how they were clustered together, if at all.  Many of the old records (both warm and cold) were long ago, 1940s-1960s.

Probably doesn't mean a thing, but I found it odd that the count was so equal.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 13, 2017, 05:53:48 PM
Quote
the last 5 years

Quote
Probably doesn't mean a thing

In terms of climate - no, it doesn't :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 13, 2017, 06:04:11 PM
When doing any sort of climate analyses or drawing conclusions in terms of longterm trends we only look at stations with at least one normal period (30 years) of good quality measurements.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 13, 2017, 06:18:34 PM
Yes, but the trend, how dynamic it is etc. can tell you something for at least a few upcoming decades - you are right, we cant tell much about what will be in 500 years :)

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 13, 2017, 06:31:02 PM
Old Tele man
no one is saying the climate has not changed lots in earths past
but it has been relatively stable, globally, for the last 50,000 years
it is currently warming at a relatively fast rate (compared to how the global mean temperature has been for 1000's of years in the past)
that is the problem, the speed of warming: nature is having a hard time adapting/keeping up
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on January 20, 2017, 01:49:12 PM
At 12:00 pm today, all climate change links were removed from the White House Website.  =D>
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 20, 2017, 01:56:21 PM
That's not going to stop the warming
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on January 20, 2017, 02:03:54 PM
It's a start. The next step is plowing through the Department of Commerce & removing the cancer in which has damaged the National Weather Service. We might get some real folks in the Department of Commerce who actually know about forecasting the weather, instead of declaring an agenda.   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on January 20, 2017, 02:05:33 PM
And I will also speculate, you might starting see better model updates (GFS).
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 20, 2017, 02:05:58 PM
So after 3 record breaking warm years in a row globally
You still want to deny global warming?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on January 20, 2017, 02:10:27 PM
At 12:00 pm today, all climate change links were removed from the White House Website.  =D>

 =D> =D> UU UU
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 20, 2017, 02:12:37 PM
How can you celebrate a president sticking his head in the sand and denying and ignoring what is happening to global temperatures?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 20, 2017, 02:17:44 PM
No worries, there is money before Trump is replaced :D

http://inhabitat.com/obama-spends-500-million-to-combat-climate-change-before-trump-takes-office/
 \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

 UU UU UU
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: blizzardof78 on January 20, 2017, 02:56:50 PM
When doing any sort of climate analyses or drawing conclusions in terms of longterm trends we only look at stations with at least one normal period (30 years) of good quality measurements.

That being the case you had better drop a LOT of data. Watch video. Want more examples? I can provide it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RNuYd4v8es
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 20, 2017, 02:59:31 PM
Other countries have long term data showing a warming
Trend and the research will continue around the world even if the USA stops
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 20, 2017, 03:00:58 PM
Well thats US´s problem, here we obviously take this much more seriously, stations are regularly checked, properly sited etc etc. So we dont need to drop anything
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 20, 2017, 03:06:34 PM
No worries, there is money before Trump is replaced :D

http://inhabitat.com/obama-spends-500-million-to-combat-climate-change-before-trump-takes-office/
 \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

 UU UU UU

I'm hoping this gets reversed if done by executive order. (Without going through proper governing bodies)
This is hard earned American tax dollars being squandered by political corruption toward bad science.  This corruption stops today.  UU UU UU UU UU
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 20, 2017, 03:12:19 PM
OK, and this is my point of view:
This is stubborn so-called "expert" only caring for his personal interests, disregarding potential risks (notice the word potential, I said this here a million times, Im not saying climate change is 100% caused by humans, however, it is a possibility and so it must be researched because if it gets too far we are doomed). This is the same principle as getting insurance. If you dont have one and something happens you will always be screwed. If you have it either nothing will happen, or in case something does, you are "insured".

I.e.
If there is potentially a problem lets just pretend there is no, ignore it and just in case it turns out there is let others deal with it.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Eccomi09 on January 21, 2017, 01:21:11 AM
I definitely do not want to argue with you, but you are not going to persuade me either, I have a very clear opinion about it... in the end it is good people have diiferent opinions... world would be quite boring otherwise don´t you think? ;)
No, it's not equally valid opinions. You have the patience of a saint!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 24, 2017, 06:27:10 AM
So you will save money by not investing on climate change research and trying to reduce it.

Will you really save money?

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13931 - just published

Btw... this is a journal with highest reputation in the world
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: wxthomson on January 24, 2017, 07:28:08 PM
No worries, there is money before Trump is replaced :D

http://inhabitat.com/obama-spends-500-million-to-combat-climate-change-before-trump-takes-office/
 \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

 UU UU UU

I'm hoping this gets reversed if done by executive order. (Without going through proper governing bodies)
This is hard earned American tax dollars being squandered by political corruption toward bad science.  This corruption stops today.  UU UU UU UU UU

What flavor was the Kool-Aid?

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 24, 2017, 07:41:30 PM
LOL

Yeah :D

Trump's level of understanding what GW and climate is:
http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=30839.msg312605#msg312605

And Im not saying which opinion is right, just want to show you what sort of understanding the person who now wants to decide these things has
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on January 24, 2017, 07:49:40 PM
That is because he President of the United States. He understands.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 24, 2017, 07:53:16 PM
Well I know he understands other things better, because otherwise I would really feel sorry for you guys :D
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 24, 2017, 07:54:08 PM
No worries, there is money before Trump is replaced :D

http://inhabitat.com/obama-spends-500-million-to-combat-climate-change-before-trump-takes-office/
 \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

 UU UU UU

I'm hoping this gets reversed if done by executive order. (Without going through proper governing bodies)
This is hard earned American tax dollars being squandered by political corruption toward bad science.  This corruption stops today.  UU UU UU UU UU

What flavor was the Kool-Aid?

I drink the anti FAKE SCIENCE, FAKE NEWS, FAKE BS Kool-aid.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on January 24, 2017, 07:57:46 PM
That is absolutely a two way street, because I pray for what your side of the pond is currently going through, in which we are not. Maybe together, all ideals will help the "The Warming Climate".
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Scalphunter on January 24, 2017, 08:12:06 PM
There was no coal, no fossil fuel and no PC  BS back when these guys were around...

http://www2.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF20/2069.html

John
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 24, 2017, 08:31:29 PM
There was no coal, no fossil fuel and no PC  BS back when these guys were around...

http://www2.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF20/2069.html

John

John many are so brainwashed from FAKE NEWS, FAKE SCIENCE, peer pressure and politics I'm done debating.
Remember some here may even be relying on the gravy train $$ so will fight tooth and nail to keep the FAKE SCIENCE live and well.  I'll just continue being a denier and stay out of these debates.
Unsubscribed
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 24, 2017, 08:36:54 PM
 8-)

I think we should also discuss whether the Earth isn't flat because I actually think we're just being brainwashed by fake news about our planet being spherical. When I look out the window I only see straight horizon. OK, maybe a bit curved, but thats surely just an illusion. Ive never seen the sphere so it must be flat. The images from space are just fake propaganda, its all one big conspiracy, Im 99.99% sure

Quote
some here

If you meant me then I can assure you that this has absolutely nothing to do with what I do in my job ;)

Btw. This is my favorite thread :-) I really enjoy this exchange of arguments :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on January 24, 2017, 08:38:09 PM
There was no coal, no fossil fuel and no PC  BS back when these guys were around...

http://www2.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF20/2069.html

John

John many are so brainwashed from FAKE NEWS, FAKE SCIENCE, peer pressure and politics I'm done debating.
Remember some here may even be relying on the gravy train $$ so will fight tooth and nail to keep the FAKE SCIENCE live and well.  I'll just continue being a denier and stay out of these debates.
Unsubscribed

 UU UU  =D> =D>
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 24, 2017, 09:33:02 PM
I keep hearing about  a gravy train
But there are plenty of countries where there is none
And yet the climate scientists there also agree and show evidence  of global warming
Nothing fake about that
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on January 24, 2017, 09:35:30 PM
Some only believe the "alternative facts" #alternativefacts  :lol:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on January 24, 2017, 10:27:30 PM
There was no coal, no fossil fuel and no PC  BS back when these guys were around...

http://www2.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF20/2069.html

John

John many are so brainwashed from FAKE NEWS, FAKE SCIENCE, peer pressure and politics I'm done debating.
Remember some here may even be relying on the gravy train $$ so will fight tooth and nail to keep the FAKE SCIENCE live and well.  I'll just continue being a denier and stay out of these debates.
Unsubscribed

Oh yeaaah,
These guy and gals are just sooo FAKE (and all their peers worldwide):
American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/ (http://journals.ametsoc.org/)

Just more FAKE SCIENCE from 'greedy' professionals who collect and objectively analyze petabytes of actual WX and earth data from equipment most of us drool over.
But they're all wrong because some bloviating propagandists have convinced some extremely gullible $&**^%^$ that...they just are. Right.
BTW, some of the pro's equipment is remarkably like our own, but they have so much more and better. Hmmm, perhaps y'all have a little bit of ah...errr...well, we all know 'someone' who's overly concerned with the size of his...

All your "FAKE MYTHS" debunked, in one convenient place (unless y'all have adsorbed some new ones lately):
Global Warming & Climate Change Myths
Here is a summary of global warming and climate change myths, sorted by recent popularity vs what science says.
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php (https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on January 24, 2017, 10:30:36 PM
Some only believe the "alternative facts" #alternativefacts  :lol:

INCOMING  incoming...

 :shock:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Scalphunter on January 24, 2017, 11:39:09 PM
You know what they say hot water poured on an Texan turns into .....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on January 24, 2017, 11:46:49 PM
This debate is easy to end. Those that believe that climate change is real and government should fix it--pay up by agreeing to pay for higher taxes for years. Those that don't believe that climate change is real, no more additional taxes to fund correction of same. In the US, we could add a line to Form 1040 to allow the believers to cough up the cash, and those that don't, just leave the line blank.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 24, 2017, 11:50:30 PM
but its individual companies that are coming up with ways to increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions
even without government help
and those companies that are doing that are creating new jobs for that new industry

and are not using tax payer money
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on January 24, 2017, 11:52:56 PM
but its individual companies that are coming up with ways to increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions
even without government help
and those companies that are doing that are creating new jobs for that new industry

and are not using tax payer money

Please name one company that is increasing energy efficiency without government funding or a subsidy.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: danner on January 25, 2017, 12:21:34 AM
This debate is easy to end.
Yes, it is. The federal govt of the United States has not been delegated the authority to regulate/legislate on the "climate" so any and all regulation/legislation is unconstitutional on its face. Nowhere in the US Constitution has the power to regulate the environment been delegated to the fed gov. The power doesn't exist. I challenge anyone to point out the Article, section, and clause to regulate the environment. Period. End of debate.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on January 25, 2017, 12:36:22 AM
but its individual companies that are coming up with ways to increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions
even without government help
and those companies that are doing that are creating new jobs for that new industry

and are not using tax payer money

Please name one company that is increasing energy efficiency without government funding or a subsidy.

Let's put the myth behind that very deceptive canard down once and for all:
Every industry and US (+world) economic sector that produces and/or uses "energy" in all it's forms, RECEIVES and/or HAS RECEIVED MANY TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS of taxpayer funded SUBSIDIES and TAX CREDITS/BREAKS, since forever.
Oil: check ($wimming in tax$)
Nuclear: check
Infrastructure: check
Aviation: check (just look at the (free access) .gov WX pages devoted to AV (I do)
Trucking: check
Agriculture: OMFG! check(s in the mail :
(   https://farm.ewg.org/ (https://farm.ewg.org/) The database tracks $322 billion in farm subsidies from commodity, crop insurance, disaster programs and conservation payments paid between 1995 and 2014 , most interesting to see your own county here...)
Railroads: check
Chemicals: check
Pharma: check (you don't believe they actually spend one cent of that R&D $$ they advertise about to get PR sympathy, do you?)
Dozens Hundreds Thousands of others: check...
(edit)
Forgot some of the biggest ones:)
Banks, WS, hedge funds, VC's: check
Insurance: check
'Professional' Sports: check (some of the absolute worst tax-sucking parasites of all).

And still you scream your dang lungs out about solar, wind, alt energy, hybrid vehicles, EV's, etc., ALSO getting some small tax breaks towards developing truly beneficial products and services.
Just like your concerns about the National Debt/Deficits (tripled under RR/BushI, doubled
 w/BushII), complete hypocrisy.
Hold on while I email my broker to buy some more "Tiny Violin Corp" stocks.

Hell, I, and probably most of you, even used to get tax-free mileage, per diem, vehicles, health insurance premiums (gold class), mortgage interest, landlord tax breaks, etc., etc.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: danner on January 25, 2017, 01:04:04 AM
Let's put the myth behind that very deceptive canard down once and for all:
Every industry and US (+world) economic sector that produces and/or uses "energy" in all it's forms, RECEIVES and/or HAS RECEIVED MANY TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS of taxpayer funded SUBSIDIES and TAX CREDITS/BREAKS, since forever.
That's a logical fallacy. The fact a system exits (an unconstitutional one too) that I have no say over is not evidence of any position other than a system exists that is forced on one whether they want it or not.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 25, 2017, 01:17:49 AM
well, in this country where I live,  industries do not get government funding to meet the green house gas emission targets set by the government
they need to do that on their own
remember, the USA is not the only country in the world
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on January 25, 2017, 03:20:34 AM
Let's put the myth behind that very deceptive canard down once and for all:
Every industry and US (+world) economic sector that produces and/or uses "energy" in all it's forms, RECEIVES and/or HAS RECEIVED MANY TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS of taxpayer funded SUBSIDIES and TAX CREDITS/BREAKS, since forever.
That's a logical fallacy. The fact a system exits (an unconstitutional one too) that I have no say over is not evidence of any position other than a system exists that is forced on one whether they want it or not.

Not too clear on your meaning, but it seems that you resent any taxes at all.
I sure don't think much of them either, particularly regressive ones like sales taxes; and where a lot of them go to (waste & corruption, pointless sandholes, etc.).
But a country practically without them, like Somalia, etc., just doesn't appeal to me as a homeplace.
Wait til the 'spend and borrow' crowd now driving the clowncar get done screwing around. Somebody gonna pay for all those top bracket tax cuts, and unrestrained spending and corruption, and it won't be the top 10%'ers.
Oh yeah, wait until some serious inflation and some engineered market crashes happen (sooner than you think), along with $4-5/gal gas, diesel and other fuels, heheh. Groceries? More catfood is what's for dindin (very not funny, I've seen people, seniors, making some serious diet choices in this rural, relatively/statistically poor area). Of course the "bad choices" crowd would just sneer at some poor former working stiff.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: danner on January 25, 2017, 03:26:09 AM
Not too clear on your meaning, but it seems that you resent any taxes at all.
I sure don't think much of them either, particularly regressive ones like sales taxes; and where a lot of them go to (waste & corruption, pointless sandholes, etc.).
But a country practically without them, like Somalia, etc., just doesn't appeal to me as a homeplace.
Wait til the 'spend and borrow' crowd now driving the clowncar get done screwing around. Somebody gonna pay for all those top bracket tax cuts, and unrestrained spending and corruption, and it won't be the top 10%'ers.
Oh yeah, wait until some serious inflation and some engineered market crashes happen (sooner than you think), along with $4-5/gal gas, diesel and other fuels, heheh. Groceries? More catfood is what's for dindin (very not funny, I've seen people, seniors, making some serious diet choices in this rural, relatively/statistically poor area). Of course the "bad choices" crowd would just sneer at some poor former working stiff.
Not too clear about anything you're trying to say either. Talk about revisionist history. We already had $4-5/gal gas and King Barry had nothing to do with the prices coming down, but he had everything with the price going up. Inflation is already absurd but you're not talking about that. I wonder why? Sounds like you're simply regurgitating msnbcabcpbscnncbs talking points, none of which is any kind of argument for anything other than a refutation of your argument.

Here you go. Gas $4-5/gal.

(http://i.imgur.com/fqHpnnX.jpg)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 25, 2017, 05:16:31 AM
OK, but in this matter:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-pipeline-idUSKBN15820N

There is no question about whether or not this will have negative impacts on the nature and he is just total ignorant. He absolutely doesnt care about the environemnt, only the economy, it is not just GW, that you can argue about, but the fact he is destroying natural habitats... no excuse for that. Well... I guess since he is 70 already he probably doesnt care much about what is going to be in a few decades - I do. There is a great book called "Gaya" - I highly recommend it.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on January 25, 2017, 05:33:35 AM
 Being total ignorant is the pot calling the kettle black.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 25, 2017, 05:59:01 AM
OK, I see... who cares about the nature, if it generates new jobs and money, let´s go ahead - is that what you think is ok?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on January 25, 2017, 06:39:23 AM
Not too clear on your meaning, but it seems that you resent any taxes at all.
I sure don't think much of them either, particularly regressive ones like sales taxes; and where a lot of them go to (waste & corruption, pointless sandholes, etc.).
But a country practically without them, like Somalia, etc., just doesn't appeal to me as a homeplace.
Wait til the 'spend and borrow' crowd now driving the clowncar get done screwing around. Somebody gonna pay for all those top bracket tax cuts, and unrestrained spending and corruption, and it won't be the top 10%'ers.
Oh yeah, wait until some serious inflation and some engineered market crashes happen (sooner than you think), along with $4-5/gal gas, diesel and other fuels, heheh. Groceries? More catfood is what's for dindin (very not funny, I've seen people, seniors, making some serious diet choices in this rural, relatively/statistically poor area). Of course the "bad choices" crowd would just sneer at some poor former working stiff.
Not too clear about anything you're trying to say either. Talk about revisionist history. We already had $4-5/gal gas and King Barry had nothing to do with the prices coming down, but he had everything with the price going up. Inflation is already absurd but you're not talking about that. I wonder why? Sounds like you're simply regurgitating msnbcabcpbscnncbs talking points, none of which is any kind of argument for anything other than a refutation of your argument.

Here you go. Gas $4-5/gal.

Point 1 (bolded):  I don't know if you were a pre-teen then or what, but gas first went above $4 after Bush/Cheney boogered Iraq. It stayed there for most of the rest of their term.
I observed lots of people here (rural, exurban, 2001 to ~2005) buying F-2/350's (white, like Bush's at the Crawford pig ranch), Hummers, etc., just to commute to their cubicles in the big city.
Then the SHTF ($4/gal et al.) and Craigslist was chock full of them selling off (trying to) those monsters because they couldn't hardly afford to feed the beasts anymore.
I laughed my azz off, then picked up a great, almost new, very slightly used one of those behemoths for a huuuge discount over a new one (I suspect the seller owed more than I paid). The behemoth market had become glutted and the owners couldn't hardly give them away. They paid a crushing depreciation cost to follow that fad.

Under President Obama, those high gas prices did come down significantly, eventually (not that he gets 'that' much credit for that). Other than saving a rapidly sinking economy and helping bring the most sustained economic improvement yet (78 months ++, IIRC), major national y/y Deficit reduction (not Nat'l Debt, a gigantic increase there was baked in by Bush).
The Dow was at around 7000 (actually had been ~6700 after the final Bush crash/meltdown) when Obama was inaugurated in 2009. As of last Friday it was ~19900, far more than doubled, almost tripled. Record profits, ~14mil new jobs, relative peace, OBL daid as a hammer, etc. Of course, the Prevaricator-In-Chief will now take credit for all that.

Just a few days ago I filled up for $1.92/gal reg. I don't know where you get >$4/gal bull. It's been (guessing) an average of ~2.80-3.30/gal during O's terms. The Eagle Ford (where I am-- boom times), Bakken, etc., have helped bring O&G way down the last 3-5 years.

Point 2: I mostly agree with your take on inflation. It has sneakily increased in many things, as a retiree I certainly notice it; much of my income is fairly fixed and un-COLA'ed for the most part (but I've raised my rents >50%, it's been a sustained boomtime here). But it was even worse during BushII, I got the receipts.

Oh, BTW, "msnbcabcpbscnncbs", never watch those 'news' progs. Never paid for cable/sat, never will, strictly OTA and internet (PBS, BBC, RTE, DW, etc).
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: wxthomson on January 25, 2017, 12:34:48 PM
That is because he President of the United States. He understands.


Knows all.
Understands little!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 25, 2017, 12:56:23 PM
ps, not all countries get government subsidies for agriculture in the world either  Jstx  ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 25, 2017, 01:09:26 PM
That is because he President of the United States. He understands.


Knows all.
Understands little!
But, some ('not my president') people would re-phrase that as : "Knows nothing, Understands even less..." (wink,wink)

Knowing nothing is great, because you can also say you understand everything you know - this is at least honest :D

Quote
Environmentalists fear the pipeline will damage the fragile forest, but business and labor groups say it will create jobs and increase energy reliability.

In other words - everyone knows it will have consequences, just that some value the nature more and some prefer the business side of things.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 25, 2017, 01:45:57 PM
(http://www.shorstmeyer.com/Climate/SkepticsvRealistsv3.gif)
(http://www.shorstmeyer.com/Climate/ArcticEscalator2012.gif)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 25, 2017, 01:51:50 PM
you forgot to add to that Jáchym
Quote
hey, its snowing here at my place -> what global warming!

the last 3 years have all broken the previous year record for global average temperature
if 2017 is in the top 10 warmest years, which it is likely to be (its not likely to break another record as a weak la nina is in effect (although that is weakening )..if 2017 beats 2016, despite the solar cycle coming off a peak (which was a small peak, as the suns sunspot activity during the last 10 years has been smaller than normal), then that will be real telling. What will they deniers say then?

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: BigOkie on January 25, 2017, 02:33:11 PM
This also fits:

(http://i.imgur.com/zjCCYRR.jpg)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 25, 2017, 02:41:28 PM
2017 is actually off to a good start
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 25, 2017, 03:01:19 PM
Oh! Look at my country! Global warming? No way.... I think Im totally convinced now, I changed my mind
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on January 25, 2017, 03:04:06 PM
yup, europe has had a cold winter
and same here, we are having a cold summer..but wait..just to my east, on the other side of the stuck weather pattern, its much warmer , to balance things out
but its the average of all the data that is important..and its that average that has been increasing, as you know Jáchym ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on January 25, 2017, 07:19:24 PM
Global warming will soon be solved... as soon as they finish removing the supporting climate research from US government web sites.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: BigOkie on January 25, 2017, 08:36:23 PM
Global warming will soon be solved... as soon as they finish removing the supporting climate research from US government web sites.

That won't remove it from peer reviewed scientists publications though.  Just because you issue an edict gagging a government agency doesn't invalidate their research.

"The Party told you to reject all evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ClaireAnderson on January 26, 2017, 01:46:28 AM
Sever climate changes are occurring around the world. Floods and tornado are appearing for the first time in different countries. Scientists analyze the data gathered from the past and compare it with the present climate changes to deduct the severe changes in the climate. Most of the people refuse to accept that global warming is the cause of sever climate changes but they cannot deny the noticeable changes that are taking places around the world.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on January 26, 2017, 05:27:03 AM
Just a few days ago a major new report was published, if interested:

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-change-impacts-and-vulnerability-2016
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on January 26, 2017, 07:34:13 AM
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]  [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]  [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on January 26, 2017, 11:38:38 AM
Just a few days ago a major new report was published, if interested:

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-change-impacts-and-vulnerability-2016

Thanks for the link to that very sobering, factual (424p) document, Jáchym, I've just skimmed a few pages so far, yikes. An objective fact and data based analysis with causes and effects.
Of course our propagandized homegrown "deniers" will simply look at the source "Euro" domain address (www.eea.europa.eu) and bray & howl about it: 'what do those furriner blanketyblanks know, give us detailed names, complete Euro bullchit' etc., etc.' (author's names and affiliations on pages 10-12).
Politely, they're sticking their heads in the sand (or snow); not so politely, their heads go into a certain personal 'orifice'... :shock:



(Was surprised by the speed of the download of the ~65MB doc though, it ran about 8-11Mbps, which is a nice fast (to me) internet connection data flow I've never noticed before on my rural 4G-LTE hotspot-smartphone connection, normal is 200Kbps-6Mbps tops. Mobile/cellular, data capped at 20G, being the best IP service available here to me (a true 4G-LTE mobile IP conn is spec'ed at orders of magnitude faster, not that we customers will ever see that.)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: wxthomson on January 26, 2017, 02:39:43 PM
No worries, there is money before Trump is replaced :D

http://inhabitat.com/obama-spends-500-million-to-combat-climate-change-before-trump-takes-office/
 \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

 UU UU UU

I'm hoping this gets reversed if done by executive order. (Without going through proper governing bodies)
This is hard earned American tax dollars being squandered by political corruption toward bad science.  This corruption stops today.  UU UU UU UU UU

What flavor was the Kool-Aid?

I drink the anti FAKE SCIENCE, FAKE NEWS, FAKE BS Kool-aid.



Those aren't fake!

They are "alternate facts".
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Intheswamp on February 10, 2017, 08:23:03 AM
I've seen new users pop up in this thread and I've also seen some old names participating.  What I also have seen is something that has been mostly alien to Wxforum.net for the few years that I've been here and that is a division that has disintegrated into name calling and chest-beating.  Healthy debate is good for growth and for understanding different views.  This is true in pretty much all areas of life.  But personal attacks, whether on a person or a group, are similar to an unbridled raging stream....the rushing water causes a small creek to become a deep schism and the deep schism then erodes into a wide deep canyon...a canyon that can be impossible to span with a bridge.  Is that what everyone wants?

It saddens me to see that Wxforum.net has descended into this state...I'll not sit atop that snowball on it's plunge.  Sure, I could comment regarding "global warming" but this thread isn't a debate, it's not even a sharing of information, rather it is a mudslinging "I'm 100% correct and you're 100% wrong" thread...I thought this was a friendly weather forum where users helped each other and wished each other well, but I guess that's what it used to be.  A sad day for Wxforum.net.

Regards,
Ed
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on February 10, 2017, 02:45:08 PM
What I also have seen is something that has been mostly alien to Wxforum.net for the few years that I've been here and that is a division that has disintegrated into name calling and chest-beating. 
Right, wrong, indifferent, this forum is merely a reflection of the unprecedented divide in this country right now IMHO, sad as that is.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on February 10, 2017, 03:07:43 PM
What I also have seen is something that has been mostly alien to Wxforum.net for the few years that I've been here and that is a division that has disintegrated into name calling and chest-beating. 
Right, wrong, indifferent, this forum is merely a reflection of the unprecedented divide in this country right now IMHO, sad as that is.

CW2274 is unfortunately correct and I don't see anything on the horizon that will change this.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on February 10, 2017, 03:08:22 PM
That's how divisive this topic is.... The other side doesn't want to hear what the "other" has to say. No one can believe the data due to economical and political fallouts. As I stated before, unless each one of us can personally gather and analyze 100s , if not thousands of years of un-biased weather/climatic data and can analyze it correctly, then who do you believe? Answer is " whoever you CHOOSE to believe".
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 10, 2017, 03:12:08 PM
well satellite visual data does not lie and can not be altered
and that shows currently that both poles have record low sea ice sea levels
https://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234
record since the 1970's when the satellites started watching
so yes there is lots of variation and it will be interesting to keep an eye on this over the coming decade for trends (arctic is trending to less and less but the antarctic has been seen more variability in trends ) and yes this all could have been before
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on February 10, 2017, 03:20:37 PM
A democratic republic such as ours only functions well when we ARE divided as to the best course of action regarding anything.  It has always been this way here, and the apoplectic response by some to today's controversies do no credit to their educational background.  None of us experienced the Civil War, but I can guarantee that our country was MUCH MORE divided at that time!

I do agree that this isn't a proper forum for a political discussion, and this is a highly politicized topic that sees volleys fired almost daily by both sides.  Unfortunately, most of the anthropogenic climate change crowd are just talking about the past 15 years' or so weather.  I suggest we give it another 30 years or so in order to properly assess the winners of today's argument.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 10, 2017, 03:28:22 PM
yes, if all the deniers pledge to eat their hat in 30 years (assuming we have not kicked the bucket) and the believers pledge to do the same :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ocala on February 10, 2017, 03:34:56 PM
I've seen new users pop up in this thread and I've also seen some old names participating.  What I also have seen is something that has been mostly alien to Wxforum.net for the few years that I've been here and that is a division that has disintegrated into name calling and chest-beating.  Healthy debate is good for growth and for understanding different views.  This is true in pretty much all areas of life.  But personal attacks, whether on a person or a group, are similar to an unbridled raging stream....the rushing water causes a small creek to become a deep schism and the deep schism then erodes into a wide deep canyon...a canyon that can be impossible to span with a bridge.  Is that what everyone wants?

It saddens me to see that Wxforum.net has descended into this state...I'll not sit atop that snowball on it's plunge.  Sure, I could comment regarding "global warming" but this thread isn't a debate, it's not even a sharing of information, rather it is a mudslinging "I'm 100% correct and you're 100% wrong" thread...I thought this was a friendly weather forum where users helped each other and wished each other well, but I guess that's what it used to be.  A sad day for Wxforum.net.

Regards,
Ed
Great post Ed. =D> =D>
Couldn't have said it any better myself.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on February 10, 2017, 03:45:14 PM
yes, if all the deniers pledge to eat their hat in 30 years (assuming we have not kicked the bucket) and the believers pledge to do the same :)
Well, let's be clear here who we're talking about:  ACCD (Anthropogenic Climate Change Deniers) aren't the same as CCD (Climate Change Deniers); and ACCB (Anthropogenic Climate Change Believers) aren't the same as CCB (Climate Change Believers).  One can be a CCB and an ACCD at the same time (the Venn diagram intersects these two populations.)  To mislabel ACCD's as CCD's and then argue against CCD is specious.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 10, 2017, 04:10:12 PM
but I never labelled anyone or put anyone in any category or specified what people are denieying or believing in
but you are either a denier or believer of one of those at least, but I guess in 30 years if you do not want to eat your hat your could argue that you were arguing the other case at the time and not have to eat your hat  :lol:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: BigOkie on February 10, 2017, 04:27:42 PM
but I never labelled anyone or put anyone in any category or specified what people are denieying or believing in
but you are either a denier or believer of one of those at least, but I guess in 30 years if you do not want to eat your hat your could argue that you were arguing the other case at the time and not have to eat your hat  :lol:

My only issue is that we're debating that it's happening.  Whether or not it's man made...it IS happening.

If we think we can do something to stem the tide of the change, why not try?

Baffling.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 10, 2017, 04:31:16 PM
Quote
If we think we can do something to stem the tide of the change, why not try?
exactly
and looking for ways to do that will actually create jobs I would have thought
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 10, 2017, 04:34:43 PM
My problem is that I do not want to say one or the other opinion is right or wrong. What we do agree on however, all of us, is that we simply dont know for sure. Is it man-made? Is it not? How fast is it? Is it really abnormal?
We DO NOT KNOW!

So the issue I have is that it is IMHO very foolish to stop all research that would try to answer those questions. Thats the problem. We might have a problem, or maybe not. We do not know. But saying lets just ignore it is simply stupid, no matter which side you are on.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Farmtalk on February 10, 2017, 09:59:24 PM
My problem is that I do not want to say one or the other opinion is right or wrong. What we do agree on however, all of us, is that we simply dont know for sure. Is it man-made? Is it not? How fast is it? Is it really abnormal?
We DO NOT KNOW!

So the issue I have is that it is IMHO very foolish to stop all research that would try to answer those questions. Thats the problem. We might have a problem, or maybe not. We do not know. But saying lets just ignore it is simply stupid, no matter which side you are on.

I agree completely with that statement, even though money on the American side is tight these days.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: PaulMy on February 10, 2017, 10:18:47 PM
Hi Joseph,
and congratulations on your new website and your new station's data soon.  Well done, especially after last year's tragic flooding.

Enjoy,
Paul
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on February 11, 2017, 12:03:37 AM
The recent article in the British Daily Mail regarding NOAA data being 'manipulated' is, I think, better explored in the New Scientist (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2120983-new-talk-of-warming-pause-just-another-faux-climate-controversy/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter&utm_term=Autofeed&cmpid=SOC%7CNSNS%7C2017-Echobox#link_time=1486771433)'s article titled "New talk of warming pause just another faux climate controversy".  Personally, I prefer getting science news from a science publication instead of a tabloid, but that's just me.

Excerpt:
Quote
The whole thing had been built entirely on an interview with one disgruntled former NOAA employee, John Bates. His assertions, published simultaneously in Judith Curry’s contrarian climate blog and the Mail, have now been thoroughly debunked in the science press (http://climatenexus.org/messaging-communication/current-events/climate-change-science-noaa-falsely-maligned-tabloid-spin).

The reality is this: the science in the 2015 paper is impeccable and has been replicated and confirmed by other research groups publishing in peer-reviewed journals; data used in the paper were not experimental, biased or improperly archived; and the paper was not rushed to publication.

In the final analysis, this was much ado about nothing, a bureaucratic issue involving data archiving procedures raised by someone not involved in the substance of the science. Such specious, mountain-out-of-molehill arguments are promoted when critics don’t have a legitimate scientific case to make.

I agree that there has been much hostile argument about the whole area, with deeply divergent stances.  That doesn't mean we have to abandon civility however.  I do urge the WXForum.net members to actively discuss/debate the issue, but never resort to personal attacks or denigrating speech -- argue the the facts and back it up with citations for your data.  It's the scientific method, and we encourage it's practice as generally useful knowledge is acquired and thereby used.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 11, 2017, 09:16:40 AM
Before we again start the never ending battle of arguments, let me give you a little analogy that should illustrate my point.

OK, so imagine you go to your GP for a regular examination. They also take blood sample and tell you to come next day for the results. Next day you arrive and you are told that one of your hormone levels is substantially elevated and this could mean all sorts of things - could be something absolutely trivial (normal), but in the worst case, though improbable, there is a possibility it is a brain tumor, which if not treated early enough will eventually lead to death. Your GP advises you go to magnetic resonance as part of prevention and to eliminate this possibility.

Now think about what you would do and after you answered it to yourself, let's go step by step through my analogy and why I posted it:

You go to your GP for a regular check -> Periodical measurements by stations
GP takes blood samples -> data gathered by meteorologists
Results arrive -> data processed
Results are showing something is not ok, but what causes it exactly is unknown
 -> Temperatures seem to be rising. This could have all sorts of causes, also note one important thing -> those of you still arguing about the accuracy of these results - this again works well with our analogy. Of course it could also be a mistake done by the lab technician while analyzing the blood. They could have made a mistake... and it probably did happen at some point in the past, but they could just as well be right.

Your GP tells you this could have all sorts of causes, it could even be normal, but it could also be fatal - maybe GW is normal, maybe it will have no significant consequences, maybe it is not caused by humans.... but there is a possibility that it is serious and that it could indeed lead to the doom of our civilization in the future.

Your GP advises you to go to MR -> a relatively very expensive procedure to eliminate the worst option
-> Research about GW can be expensive and it could be that it turns out we cant do anything about it, it is normal, etc etc. - just like you dont know the outcome of MR and in this case hope it is not going to be anything serious

So the question is - will you agree with the MR (i.e. research), even though you know it is not certain and in this case the probability is low and this procedure will be quite expensive and also knowing the lab technician could have made an error? Would you rather say you want to be sure and take precaution or would you turn around, wave your hand at your GP and go home with a piece of mind thinking how much money you have saved and that it is surely something unimportant? ... and you know what? I actually did not make this up... it happened to me 8yrs ago and fortunately it was not anything serious - but if you are asking about what I did, then the answer is that yes I did go to the MR and it turned out to be ok and I do no regret this decision at all and have similar feeling about GW!

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on February 11, 2017, 09:47:11 AM
The 'ACCD (Anthropogenic Climate Change Deniers) and CCD (Climate Change Deniers)' (per gwwilk above) have for years recycled the same old myths, mis'truths', disinformation, misinformation, and outright lies about climate change and/or global warming.
They have all been thoroughly discredited and debunked as the falsehoods that they are time and again. Their sources are varied, but the root causes of most have been exposed. These denier myths/untruths often cloak themselves in a veneer of appearing 'scientific'. And yet the 'true believers' persist in their 'alt-facts'.

But the actual, real, accredited scientists working in that discipline (and it's many ancillary supportive ones), 97% of them, publishing solid, documented, peer reviewed, research, have affirmed that climate change and/or global warming is occurring, and is accelerating.
They have also documented many of the immense, harmful effects CC/GW will have on the Earth, it's oceans, and most all it's lifeforms, not the least of which are humans. Some are already happening.

Here are some links to credible, factual rebuttals of the "deniers" (to lump them all together):

Debunking the Top 10 Climate Change Myths
http://climatenexus.org/messaging-communication/basics/debunking-top-10-climate-change-myths (http://climatenexus.org/messaging-communication/basics/debunking-top-10-climate-change-myths)

Global Warming & Climate Change Myths (193 of them!)
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php (https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php)

American Meteorological Society
http://ametsoc.org (http://ametsoc.org)
http://journals.ametsoc.org (http://journals.ametsoc.org)

That's just a few, there are many more authorative sources, a bing.com or google search will turn up many thousands of institutions and scientific literature on the topic.
Like Jáchym, myself, and many others have commented here and elsewhere, doing something to forestall and/or prevent this very likely imminent global catastrophe is simply the prudent thing to do. And also like buying some insurance to hedge the known/unknown risks.
Taking out a little insurance is just smart, and in many things, required by society-law-authorities-whatever.
Hell, I'm sure y'all carry many forms of insurance in everyday life: vehicle, home, life, etc. I even carry a $1M liability rider on my boat (from home ins), simply because almost every US (and many foreign, like MX) marina requires it to even dock in one. Plus the other dedicated boat policy that also meets Coast Guard requirements regarding a potential wreck and fuel spill incident.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 11, 2017, 09:58:40 AM
Something to think about...

This is what many of you found ridiculous:
Quote
President Barack Obama has made one final contribution to the fight against global warming on his way out the White House door. On Tuesday, Obama transferred $500 million to the UN's Green Climate Fund, a key program set up to finance climate change adaptation and renewable energy projects in developing countries.

Trump will most likely not pay the additional 2.5 billion the U.S. has commited to pay

So in total 3 billion USD was supposed to go towards climate change (one-off payment for now)

And now something to put things into perspective:
Annual military budget of the U.S.:
$523.9 billion, which includes an increase of $2.2 billion over the FY 2016 enacted budget of $521.7 billion

So my question is, do you really think there is no space to save money elsewhere?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 11, 2017, 10:39:51 AM
Something to think about...

This is what many of you found ridiculous:
Quote
President Barack Obama has made one final contribution to the fight against global warming on his way out the White House door. On Tuesday, Obama transferred $500 million to the UN's Green Climate Fund, a key program set up to finance climate change adaptation and renewable energy projects in developing countries.

Trump will most likely not pay the additional 2.5 billion the U.S. has commited to pay

So in total 3 billion USD was supposed to go towards climate change (one-off payment for now)

And now something to put things into perspective:
Annual military budget of the U.S.:
$523.9 billion, which includes an increase of $2.2 billion over the FY 2016 enacted budget of $521.7 billion

So my question is, do you really think there is no space to save money elsewhere?

Guaranteed this administration won't be sending money overseas. Its stays home.
 
This new plan is actually an old idea that Obama actually talked about but later pulled out instead opting for job killing executive action called Clean Power Plan.
The proposed plan is Carbon Tax which may shock many Republicans who are dead against new taxes and it may never get through Congress. Trump isn't a traditional Republican so things will be different under this administration. That's why the establishment was so dead against him and some still are. 
 
The plan on the face looks brilliant IMO. Proponents behind the plan say:

Those pushing the plan say the tax level would be set to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than what is accomplished by “current regulations”—presumably the Clean Power Plan.

Revenue from the tax would be reimbursed to Americans each quarter, with an estimate of $2,000 per family in the first year. This would be accompanied by repeal of the Clean Power Plan and other unnamed Environmental Protection Agency regulations on carbon dioxide emissions.


Link to plan overview: https://www.clcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Treasury_Analysis.pdf
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 11, 2017, 11:02:51 AM
Fair enough so let me re-phrase that.

Read my analogy above.

Then think about the following - not that much would be required to invest. Even 5 billion would be quite significant. So do you not think it would be worth spending 1% of your annual (!) military expenditures towards "insurance"?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 11, 2017, 01:46:22 PM
carbon tax does have it merits, as its an incentive to reduce emissions by becoming more energy efficient, for a company
however buying carbon credits , maybe not such a good way to reduce overall emissions?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 11, 2017, 02:37:23 PM
I agree with that, carbon tax is not a solution.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bunty on February 12, 2017, 01:01:41 AM
89 as the high on Saturday in Oklahoma City set an all time record.  The former record was 82.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 12, 2017, 04:32:06 AM
I agree with that, carbon tax is not a solution.

Of course you don't agree your country gives squat at least not in top 20. I can't even find any number other than the EU has to give back to countries like Czechoslovakia in certain welfare areas. Bet you were pissed when the Brits left also.

Because I tend not to swear or insult people,  I will not comment on your post.

All I will say is that your geography knowledge is very poor and after the years I have been posting here you could at least know where I am from. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 12, 2017, 04:41:35 AM
I will not talk about my country with anyone who obviously knows absolutely nothing about it,  not even its name.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: belfryboy on February 12, 2017, 05:13:33 AM
I agree with that, carbon tax is not a solution.

Of course you don't agree your country gives squat at least not in top 20. I can't even find any number other than the EU has to give back to countries like Czechoslovakia in certain welfare areas. Bet you were pissed when the Brits left also.

Erm, we haven't left, we're still in. And as far as I know there is no such place as Czechoslovakia.

and I hope to god you guys desist with the clean coal nonsense, that's just new level of stupidity.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 12, 2017, 06:09:56 AM
I agree with that, carbon tax is not a solution.

Of course you don't agree your country gives squat at least not in top 20. I can't even find any number other than the EU has to give back to countries like Czechoslovakia in certain welfare areas. Bet you were pissed when the Brits left also.

Because I tend not to swear or insult people,  I will not comment on your post.

All I will say is that your geography knowledge is very poor and after the years I have been posting here you could at least know where I am from.

Don't bust a blood vessel, your insistence my country sends billions is insulting too. I for one don't feel 1 dime should go outside our borders. I'm all for clean air and water but it can be done differently.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 12, 2017, 06:22:57 AM
Rather than bitching about other countries you should do a bit of research and geography and history revision.  Otherwise noone can take your arguments seriously and you will make an idiot  of yourself again.

Just for your information,  I am not from czechoslovakia, Great Britain is in the EU and the fact you don't know even such basic stuff shows how much you understand the other facts.

And just in case you manage to find out where I'm really from,  I can assure you my country spends quite a lot on these issues,  people are very aware of these problems and fortunately we can already see the positive outcomes of such attitude
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 12, 2017, 06:56:37 AM
Rather than bitching about other countries you should do a bit of research and geography and history revision.  Otherwise noone can take your arguments seriously and you will make an idiot  of yourself again.

Just for your information,  I am not from czechoslovakia, Great Britain is in the EU and the fact you don't know even such basic stuff shows how much you understand the other facts.

And just in case you manage to find out where I'm really from,  I can assure you my country spends quite a lot on these issues,  people are very aware of these problems and fortunately we can already see the positive outcomes of such attitude

I'm not claiming to be a European expert but your crybaby insistence we keep giving billions doesn't rub well and is ludicrous and not going to happen....
Our EPA is no more than left-leaning, bad-science rogue agency that functions as a puppet for the globalists and the quicker we pull out Clean Air Act the better. IMO
BTW last time I checked GB voted to leave EU union.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 12, 2017, 07:23:09 AM
Just some facts...

I just checked the numbers

between 1990 and 2013, the per capita emissions in the USA dropped by 8%, in my country it was 34%. Do you think this was without any investment or effort?

Just so you at least know where Im from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republic
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on February 12, 2017, 11:14:46 AM
I'm not claiming to be a European expert but your crybaby insistence we keep giving billions doesn't rub well and is ludicrous and not going to happen....
Our EPA is no more than left-leaning, bad-science rogue agency that functions as a puppet for the globalists and the quicker we pull out Clean Air Act the better. IMO
BTW last time I checked GB voted to leave EU union.

Enough, valentineweather.  You are entitled to your views, you are not entitled to spew forth slanted, disparaging, and ad hominem attacks on members or their views.  See the registration agreement.

If you can constrain your vituperation about facts (with citations), feel free to continue posting.  Continue posting along the lines you have in this thread will get you banned from the forum.  There is enough strongly expressed and inappropriate behavior in the world as it is, we don't need you to contribute to it.

BTW.. your locking of the other topic after posting the (now debunked) issue was uncalled for.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 12, 2017, 11:49:58 AM
Thanks Ken, I also wish we didnt have to see such posts here and I hope this wont go on, because if it continued I probably wouldnt resist posting something that would force you to ban me too

And back to climate change... hopefully this thread wont be locked as well.... thats probably the way some people handle arguments... no-one says you cannot have different opinion and you should be allowed to express it.

VW locking that thread sort of reminded me of this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/trump-bans-epa-employees-using-social-media-bars-new-contracts

This is usually what people do when they run out of arguments
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 12, 2017, 12:40:14 PM
So Ken its okay to call me names bitch, idiot, ignorant  but I say the awful word crybaby or God forbid FAKE its going overboard.
Its not just this thread but many are like this.
Just because you don't agree with my opinions I'm no more out of line than others you agree with. But its your call your forum do what you want.   
I'm not sitting by and saying nothing, when what I consider bad science being regurgitated for profit. All the data can be disputed including the links you posted. It goes both ways For and Against, nothing is in stone especially when it comes from those profiting.   BTW I locked the other thread because it was getting out of hand just like this one. Sorry if you didn't like it.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 12, 2017, 12:47:51 PM
Not the first time you posted these racist comments.

Arguing about GW is fine, insulting other people and their countries, about which you have absolutely no clue, dont even know what their name is (! - showing you have some serious gaps in geographical knowledge), is not. You probably wouldnt like if I called your country/state "Nepal" just because it sounds similar to Nebraska.

Next time if you really feel the need to teach someone you better look up things otherwise you will make a fool of yourself again.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on February 12, 2017, 12:56:27 PM
This is a cesspool into which I will not wade.
This is a cesspool into which I will not wade.
This is a cesspool into which I will not wade.
This is a cesspool into which I will not wade.
This is a cesspool into which I will not wade.
This is a cesspool into which I will not wade.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 12, 2017, 12:58:10 PM
Not the first time you posted these racist comments.

Arguing about GW is fine, insulting other people and their countries, about which you have absolutely no clue, dont even know what their name is (! - showing you have some serious gaps in geographical knowledge), is not. You probably wouldnt like if I called your country/state "Nepal" just because it sounds similar to Nebraska.

Next time if you really feel the need to teach someone you better look up things otherwise you will make a fool of yourself again.

Are you saying mistakenly identifying your county of origin is racist? Give me a break. Seriously it was a simple mistake and can't get over it.  #-o

I would laugh not get offended if you thought Nebraska was Nepal.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 12, 2017, 12:59:43 PM
bla bla bla

Anyone can read what you posted, and you know very well it was not just mistakenly calling my country a different name and Ive had enough, you were told to stop this debate so if you have nothing to say about GW stop posting.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 12, 2017, 12:59:59 PM
but there are plenty of climate scientists around the world (remember, the USA is not the world) ,who are government funded and not needing to get funding or make a profit etc
so your argument research scientists making their data look like warming to get funding has no majority basis
also how can you call peer reviewed science bad science?

also a quick google search of where jachym lives brings up this
Quote
The Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004; it is a member of the United Nations, the OECD, the OSCE, and the Council of Europe. It is a developed country[17] with an advanced,[18] high income economy[19] and high living standards.[20][21][22] The UNDP ranks the country 14th in inequality-adjusted human development.[23] The Czech Republic also ranks as the 6th most peaceful country, while achieving strong performance in democratic governance. It has the lowest unemployment rate in the European Union.

sounds like a great place to live :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 12, 2017, 01:01:39 PM
but there are plenty of climate scientists around the world (remember, the USA is not the world) ,who are government funded and not needing to get funding or make a profit etc
so your argument research scientists making their data look like warming to get funding has no majority basis
also how can you call peer reviewed science bad science?

also a quick google search of where jachym lives brings up this
Quote
The Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004; it is a member of the United Nations, the OECD, the OSCE, and the Council of Europe. It is a developed country[17] with an advanced,[18] high income economy[19] and high living standards.[20][21][22] The UNDP ranks the country 14th in inequality-adjusted human development.[23] The Czech Republic also ranks as the 6th most peaceful country, while achieving strong performance in democratic governance. It has the lowest unemployment rate in the European Union.

sounds like a great place to live :)

you bet :D

thanks Brian... im not saying my country is the best... every country is unique and has its pros and cons (New Zealand included :D)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 12, 2017, 01:16:13 PM
Quote
I would laugh not get offended if you thought Nebraska was Nepal.
when I was visiting Nebraska, I was asked if I was from Colorado (as I had an accent, i.e I must have been a foreigner)
 :grin: :grin:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 12, 2017, 01:24:59 PM
Quote
I would laugh not get offended if you thought Nebraska was Nepal.
when I was visiting Nebraska, I was asked if I was from Colorado (as I had an accent, i.e I must have been a foreigner)
 :grin: :grin:

I personal have some dislikes about Nebraska, mainly high taxes and the amount they spend per student yearly where I live is insane. Around $17,000 a year.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 12, 2017, 01:33:31 PM
but spending money on students is looking after your future economy I would have thought?
(as long as those students then contribute to the local economy once finished their education, hey , they could even become climate research scientists (I jest)  :grin: )
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Farmtalk on February 12, 2017, 01:38:28 PM
West Virginia, where I am from and currently live, has been under a lot of heat via clean coal technology, and has put a fair few miners out of work.

Where I lived, in Clay County, West Virginia until last June, there is a population of just under 10,000. There is plenty of coal in the county, but a few years ago, the main coal mine in that county shut down due to some of the regulations (as well as general expenses) that the company could not simply follow.

The county lost over 500 jobs and now has one of the highest unemployment rates in the state.

Again, I live in West Virginia. I worked in a sustainability department for four years, and I realize how important it is to try and recycle when possible, to appreciate and respect our surroundings, and to do our part to try and sustain it for future generations.

The problem that I have with clean coal technology right now is that we do not have the infrastructure for it. Many of these coal companies in West Virginia simply do not have the money to work on new technology on how they mine, extract, and transport coal. I hope that they do soon, or that it becomes easier to transition.

For a place like West Virginia, coal is very important. It would be nice to see a diversification occur in our economy (another discussion), but for now, coal has remained king in the state, though that is changing quickly. Literally tens of thousands of coal miners have lost their jobs in this state alone in the last ten years - Clay County's population dropped over 9% in only 10 years from 2000-2010.

I personally do think that there is a certain amount of impact from humankind that is causing global temperatures to increase. I don't think there is any doubt that the globe is exactly increase - just exactly why is still yet to be determined. What amount of cause is natural? Caused by mankind?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on February 12, 2017, 02:54:23 PM
West Virginia, where I am from and currently live, has been under a lot of heat via clean coal technology, and has put a fair few miners out of work.

Where I lived, in Clay County, West Virginia until last June, there is a population of just under 10,000. There is plenty of coal in the county, but a few years ago, the main coal mine in that county shut down due to some of the regulations (as well as general expenses) that the company could not simply follow.

The county lost over 500 jobs and now has one of the highest unemployment rates in the state.

Again, I live in West Virginia. I worked in a sustainability department for four years, and I realize how important it is to try and recycle when possible, to appreciate and respect our surroundings, and to do our part to try and sustain it for future generations.

The problem that I have with clean coal technology right now is that we do not have the infrastructure for it. Many of these coal companies in West Virginia simply do not have the money to work on new technology on how they mine, extract, and transport coal. I hope that they do soon, or that it becomes easier to transition.

For a place like West Virginia, coal is very important. It would be nice to see a diversification occur in our economy (another discussion), but for now, coal has remained king in the state, though that is changing quickly. Literally tens of thousands of coal miners have lost their jobs in this state alone in the last ten years - Clay County's population dropped over 9% in only 10 years from 2000-2010.

I personally do think that there is a certain amount of impact from humankind that is causing global temperatures to increase. I don't think there is any doubt that the globe is exactly increase - just exactly why is still yet to be determined. What amount of cause is natural? Caused by mankind?

Howdy Farmtalk,
They need to face up to it, coal is dead as a hammer, or will be soon.
Eastern coal has been killed by Western coal to  some extent; as Western coal is also getting killed.
Both regions are getting killed primarily by very cheap natural gas at this time. NatGas isn't going away for a long while.
Alternative energy will be taking more and more of the power market, probably to a dominant position in ~40 years. And nuclear, if it ever gets unstuck, upgraded, and affordable, will put the nails in coal's coffin.

They need to just do something else. They had better hope our society's "safety nets" aren't completely gutted by then.
It's sad, but "change" just IS. You roll with it or perish. I've seen the effects, domestic 'migrants' just damn near begging for jobs years ago.
I've transferred myself before, to keep a damned good job, that was affected by technological change (although I and some others were 'riding the wave', so to speak; way ahead of the 'break').
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on February 12, 2017, 03:04:38 PM
So Ken its okay to call me names bitch, idiot, ignorant  but I say the awful word crybaby or God forbid FAKE its going overboard.
Its not just this thread but many are like this.
Just because you don't agree with my opinions I'm no more out of line than others you agree with. But its your call your forum do what you want.   
I'm not sitting by and saying nothing, when what I consider bad science being regurgitated for profit. All the data can be disputed including the links you posted. It goes both ways For and Against, nothing is in stone especially when it comes from those profiting.   BTW I locked the other thread because it was getting out of hand just like this one. Sorry if you didn't like it.
It's the way you argue and behavior that is objectionable.  It is perfectly ok to disagree, and debate -- as long as it's a civil debate that does not resort to name calling or denigrating the intellect of those with which you disagree.  Facts matter, and source of facts matter -- there are many 'alt-facts' rummaging around the internet that feel like facts, but may not have actual science behind them.  Discuss, yes.. strident, disparaging discussion no.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Farmtalk on February 12, 2017, 04:23:25 PM
West Virginia, where I am from and currently live, has been under a lot of heat via clean coal technology, and has put a fair few miners out of work.

Where I lived, in Clay County, West Virginia until last June, there is a population of just under 10,000. There is plenty of coal in the county, but a few years ago, the main coal mine in that county shut down due to some of the regulations (as well as general expenses) that the company could not simply follow.

The county lost over 500 jobs and now has one of the highest unemployment rates in the state.

Again, I live in West Virginia. I worked in a sustainability department for four years, and I realize how important it is to try and recycle when possible, to appreciate and respect our surroundings, and to do our part to try and sustain it for future generations.

The problem that I have with clean coal technology right now is that we do not have the infrastructure for it. Many of these coal companies in West Virginia simply do not have the money to work on new technology on how they mine, extract, and transport coal. I hope that they do soon, or that it becomes easier to transition.

For a place like West Virginia, coal is very important. It would be nice to see a diversification occur in our economy (another discussion), but for now, coal has remained king in the state, though that is changing quickly. Literally tens of thousands of coal miners have lost their jobs in this state alone in the last ten years - Clay County's population dropped over 9% in only 10 years from 2000-2010.

I personally do think that there is a certain amount of impact from humankind that is causing global temperatures to increase. I don't think there is any doubt that the globe is exactly increase - just exactly why is still yet to be determined. What amount of cause is natural? Caused by mankind?

Howdy Farmtalk,
They need to face up to it, coal is dead as a hammer, or will be soon.
Eastern coal has been killed by Western coal to  some extent; as Western coal is also getting killed.
Both regions are getting killed primarily by very cheap natural gas at this time. NatGas isn't going away for a long while.
Alternative energy will be taking more and more of the power market, probably to a dominant position in ~40 years. And nuclear, if it ever gets unstuck, upgraded, and affordable, will put the nails in coal's coffin.

They need to just do something else. They had better hope our society's "safety nets" aren't completely gutted by then.
It's sad, but "change" just IS. You roll with it or perish. I've seen the effects, domestic 'migrants' just damn near begging for jobs years ago.
I've transferred myself before, to keep a damned good job, that was affected by technological change (although I and some others were 'riding the wave', so to speak; way ahead of the 'break').

I agree with you. I think there has got to be another way than to just kill jobs. There needs to be a process for these coal mine workers. These folks are losing their jobs and it is devastating their families. I work in news now and see it weekly.

But I do agree with you, good change will not come to my state unless we diversify our economy. It's like investing in the stock market - investing all of your eggs into one basket is not recommended.

I feel very bad for miner families though.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: BigOkie on February 13, 2017, 08:51:25 AM
West Virginia, where I am from and currently live, has been under a lot of heat via clean coal technology, and has put a fair few miners out of work.

Where I lived, in Clay County, West Virginia until last June, there is a population of just under 10,000. There is plenty of coal in the county, but a few years ago, the main coal mine in that county shut down due to some of the regulations (as well as general expenses) that the company could not simply follow.

The county lost over 500 jobs and now has one of the highest unemployment rates in the state.

Again, I live in West Virginia. I worked in a sustainability department for four years, and I realize how important it is to try and recycle when possible, to appreciate and respect our surroundings, and to do our part to try and sustain it for future generations.

The problem that I have with clean coal technology right now is that we do not have the infrastructure for it. Many of these coal companies in West Virginia simply do not have the money to work on new technology on how they mine, extract, and transport coal. I hope that they do soon, or that it becomes easier to transition.

For a place like West Virginia, coal is very important. It would be nice to see a diversification occur in our economy (another discussion), but for now, coal has remained king in the state, though that is changing quickly. Literally tens of thousands of coal miners have lost their jobs in this state alone in the last ten years - Clay County's population dropped over 9% in only 10 years from 2000-2010.

I personally do think that there is a certain amount of impact from humankind that is causing global temperatures to increase. I don't think there is any doubt that the globe is exactly increase - just exactly why is still yet to be determined. What amount of cause is natural? Caused by mankind?

Howdy Farmtalk,
They need to face up to it, coal is dead as a hammer, or will be soon.
Eastern coal has been killed by Western coal to  some extent; as Western coal is also getting killed.
Both regions are getting killed primarily by very cheap natural gas at this time. NatGas isn't going away for a long while.
Alternative energy will be taking more and more of the power market, probably to a dominant position in ~40 years. And nuclear, if it ever gets unstuck, upgraded, and affordable, will put the nails in coal's coffin.

They need to just do something else. They had better hope our society's "safety nets" aren't completely gutted by then.
It's sad, but "change" just IS. You roll with it or perish. I've seen the effects, domestic 'migrants' just damn near begging for jobs years ago.
I've transferred myself before, to keep a damned good job, that was affected by technological change (although I and some others were 'riding the wave', so to speak; way ahead of the 'break').

I agree with you. I think there has got to be another way than to just kill jobs. There needs to be a process for these coal mine workers. These folks are losing their jobs and it is devastating their families. I work in news now and see it weekly.

But I do agree with you, good change will not come to my state unless we diversify our economy. It's like investing in the stock market - investing all of your eggs into one basket is not recommended.

I feel very bad for miner families though.

Problem I am having with the way that states mainly are handling the transition to 'alternative energy' like wind, solar, hydro..well, not so much hydro as that's been around since we've been creating dams is that states that are beholden to fossil fuels, especially those states where lawmakers take 'donations' for campaigns by the fossil fuel lobbyists have decided that trying to suppress their implementation of things like solar and wind are a hindrance to their cash cows, so that, in states like mine, they have decided to place a 'fee' on using the power grid for those using solar, and to try and tax wind power.  Regressive.

What will our grandchildren think when they look back on this time in history?  It baffles the mind.

And this train of though of 'well China does worse so there' is idiotic at best.  Should we continue to do what we're doing simply because another country is doing worse?  That's like saying my brother killed someone, so why can't I?

It's shameful, really.  This is OUR Earth, not one country's.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: DoctorKnow on February 13, 2017, 09:41:36 AM
Quote
And this train of though of 'well China does worse so there' is idiotic at best.

Nobody said that.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: BigOkie on February 13, 2017, 09:46:18 AM
Quote
And this train of though of 'well China does worse so there' is idiotic at best.

Nobody said that.

It was implied.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on February 13, 2017, 12:08:39 PM
China is slowly increasing energy efficiency /reducing emissions and have targets and plans/policies set in place through to the year 2030
i.e they are not increasing emissions output at the rate they were now and have decreased the reliance on coal (that has contributed to that the drop in coal price (less demand))
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Farmtalk on February 13, 2017, 12:18:04 PM
Problem I am having with the way that states mainly are handling the transition to 'alternative energy' like wind, solar, hydro..well, not so much hydro as that's been around since we've been creating dams is that states that are beholden to fossil fuels, especially those states where lawmakers take 'donations' for campaigns by the fossil fuel lobbyists have decided that trying to suppress their implementation of things like solar and wind are a hindrance to their cash cows, so that, in states like mine, they have decided to place a 'fee' on using the power grid for those using solar, and to try and tax wind power.  Regressive.
It's shameful, really.  This is OUR Earth, not one country's.

That is sadly an issue. There are several fossil fuel lobbylists that intertwine themselves into state politics here. It's almost like propaganda sometimes. Advertisements like "Coal is the only way to get West Virginia back" really bother me, and are played on the radio around here alot.

Again, I don't think coal shouldn't be extracted here - I welcome it. But I'm more interested in diversifying our economy, helping miners laid off find new jobs (perhaps in natural gas or a cleaner fuel), while we work on building the infrastructure for clean coal technology.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on February 19, 2017, 05:32:32 PM
I have to say I dont like this idea:
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/15/weather/refreezing-arctic-ice-study-trnd/

It is sort of the same thing as burying CO2 under the ground. This is not solving the problem. We have to solve the primary cause of the problem, not try to solve the consequences.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ClaireAnderson on March 22, 2017, 02:44:51 AM
When it comes to global warming there is a huge disagreement among people. Some say that global warming has no impact on weather changes while other says that global warming is constantly changing the weather. But the weather changes are constantly noticed across the word for years.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: MahFL on March 22, 2017, 03:32:48 AM
10 million machines ? That's a lot of machines.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on March 22, 2017, 04:07:39 AM
weather is what happens day to day, or for the next week or 2, for your location
climate is an average of those day to day variations over a long period and over a large area

you need to keep in mind those distinctions

climate does change -> there are long term natural cycles (some have been identified as long as 25 years)

think of global warming as a temperature offset..that is slowly increasing
its gets complication though when that increase in temperature (ocean and over land) changes the long term climate averages -> climate change
(i.e an area could get more droughts or more floods or more extremes or shift its climate to an area that is closer to the equator)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WXman on April 19, 2017, 12:18:23 PM
Before automobiles roamed highways and sat in traffic jams, before the population was growing out of control, before city landscapes dominated and farming was the major occupation of Americans... before all of this we set most of the high temperature records that are on the books in the Ohio Valley region of the U.S. 

This is one of the most heavily populated areas of the entire nation, and yet our "wild" weather of today doesn't rival the things of a century or more ago.

All of this makes sense when you understand that the climate is a cycle, with ebbs and flows and ups and downs and human activity doesn't have nearly the impact on it that liberals will tell you that it does.  Furthermore, scientific fact tells us that matter cannot be destroyed or created, and human beings cannot therefore destroy something (the Earth) which we had no power to create in the first place.

We as a society should be good stewards of the planet we live on.  That is true.  But it's also true that we worry WAY too much and we need to relax.  Afterall, we DO have to live here.  And if burning coal is what it takes to keep my family warm, by all means let's burn that coal.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 19, 2017, 12:30:37 PM
Oh not again....

Quote
human beings cannot therefore destroy something (the Earth) which we had no power to create in the first place

like seriously? Now, I am not going to argue about global warming, we both have our own views about that, but what you wrote about not being able to destroy something we did not create is IMHO nonsense.

And we definitely don´t destroy the planet just by releasing GHGs or burning coal. It is true that we might not destroy the actual planet as such, but we can very easily make it totally inhabitable Im sure you will agree with me on that. So saying we need to relax and not worry about burning fossil fuels, destroying rainforests, making organisms extinct etc etc. is maybe ok in short-term, but if you care at least a little bit about future generations then you would never say such thing.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 19, 2017, 12:32:23 PM
This is a nice concept:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_hypothesis

And this is a great book:
https://www.amazon.com/Gaia-New-Look-Life-Earth/dp/0192862189
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 19, 2017, 03:30:29 PM
Quote
All of this makes sense when you understand that the climate is a cycle, with ebbs and flows and ups
but no one said it does not do that
all climate scientists know that

think of global warming as an offset
so that then the those ups and downs get shifted up a bit on the Y axis
(which then means the previous ups are now getting beaten)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WXman on April 20, 2017, 01:52:37 PM
Oh not again....

Quote
human beings cannot therefore destroy something (the Earth) which we had no power to create in the first place

like seriously? Now, I am not going to argue about global warming, we both have our own views about that, but what you wrote about not being able to destroy something we did not create is IMHO nonsense.

And we definitely don´t destroy the planet just by releasing GHGs or burning coal. It is true that we might not destroy the actual planet as such, but we can very easily make it totally inhabitable Im sure you will agree with me on that. So saying we need to relax and not worry about burning fossil fuels, destroying rainforests, making organisms extinct etc etc. is maybe ok in short-term, but if you care at least a little bit about future generations then you would never say such thing.

Yes, very much again.

Generations before us said the same things you're saying.  Hundreds of years ago, they were saying the same thing you're saying now.  Where is this carnage?

In the 1970s the headlines read "ICE AGE!".  In the 1990s it was "GLOBAL WARMING!".  By the 2000s neither was panning out so now it's "CLIMATE CHANGE!" because that term covers all bases and technically they cannot be wrong when they scream that.

Like I said, should we be good stewards of the planet?  Yes.  I stated that.  But the fact is, the earth is not going to cease to exist because human beings are trying to live on it.  In fact, it was created FOR human beings to live upon, and we were granted the spot at the top of the chain.

We need to relax and stop worrying ourselves sick everytime somebody lights up a coal burning stove.  My pickup truck achieved 8.8 miles per gallon on it's last tank.  But, that's the vehicle I need to get my work done after hours, so I don't worry about it.  Life will go on...  like it has for centuries.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WXman on April 20, 2017, 01:56:59 PM
Quote
All of this makes sense when you understand that the climate is a cycle, with ebbs and flows and ups
but no one said it does not do that
all climate scientists know that

think of global warming as an offset
so that then the those ups and downs get shifted up a bit on the Y axis
(which then means the previous ups are now getting beaten)

But they have.  They are teaching our school children that we are destroying the planet, and the heat is building and it'll never go back to "normal" again.

It's 100% false.  Or, in my field, we call it "crap science".

Explain to me how a person can take 125 years of reliable weather records, and use that to show evidence of roughly 10,000 years of timeline?  Nobody in their right mind would use a 1-2% sample size to explain the whole.

It's crap science, and that's what they are feeding our children today.  I've studied under some of the finest professors of climatology around, and I'm thankful that I can avoid the trap that the media is trying to set.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 20, 2017, 01:58:29 PM
I didnt say Earth was going to be destroyed by us (though Im 100% if we wanted to, we would manage even that these days...), but there is a fundamental difference between Earth being destroyed as such (the actual planet) and Earth being destroyed in the sense of becoming inhabitable.

This could be done in many ways, obviously the fastest would be some nuclear bomb, in fact not that many would be required... this is of course unlikely, but the fact we are slowly destroying the environment (and Im not talking climate change now), is a fact. Look at the rate of extenction, look at the rate of rainforests disappearing, (ok Im not going to say look at climate change, but I normally would).

My opinion is that it is not a question of if, but rather when. The only thing now is whether we will be so smart that we manage to colonize other planets or habitats before this happens.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 20, 2017, 01:59:46 PM
Quote
I've studied under some of the finest professors of climatology around, and I'm thankful that I can avoid the trap that the media is trying to set.

Me too and I was taught something totally different so there is obviously no consensus about this...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 20, 2017, 03:21:40 PM
Ice cores give us a much longer time line than 125 years
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 20, 2017, 03:54:02 PM


But they have.  They are teaching our school children that we are destroying the planet, and the heat is building and it'll never go back to "normal" again.

It's 100% false.  Or, in my field, we call it "crap science".

Explain to me how a person can take 125 years of reliable weather records, and use that to show evidence of roughly 10,000 years of timeline?  Nobody in their right mind would use a 1-2% sample size to explain the whole.

It's crap science, and that's what they are feeding our children today.  I've studied under some of the finest professors of climatology around, and I'm thankful that I can avoid the trap that the media is trying to set.

I'm with you on this. Let’s say even if we are wrong and somehow the small sample size of data is correct and the climate is warming, is it really all that bad?

I say no. Cold, not heat, is the biggest killer. There are many good aspects for the warming globe with some side effects that can't be ignored like low lying flooding but IMO it’s outweighed by the good of a warming planet. Enjoy the warmth now.  Eventually we will go into another ice age according to climate paleontologist, then we really will have something to worry about with potentially millions perishing from famine and cold.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on April 20, 2017, 04:22:26 PM


But they have.  They are teaching our school children that we are destroying the planet, and the heat is building and it'll never go back to "normal" again.

It's 100% false.  Or, in my field, we call it "crap science".

Explain to me how a person can take 125 years of reliable weather records, and use that to show evidence of roughly 10,000 years of timeline?  Nobody in their right mind would use a 1-2% sample size to explain the whole.

It's crap science, and that's what they are feeding our children today.  I've studied under some of the finest professors of climatology around, and I'm thankful that I can avoid the trap that the media is trying to set.

I'm with you on this. Let’s say even if we are wrong and somehow the small sample size of data is correct and the climate is warming, is it really all that bad?

I say no. Cold, not heat, is the biggest killer. There are many good aspects for the warming globe with some side effects that can't be ignored like low lying flooding but IMO it’s outweighed by the good of a warming planet. Enjoy the warmth now.  Eventually we will go into another ice age according to climate paleontologist, then we really will have something to worry about with potentially millions perishing from famine and cold.

Well stated by both of you. Wxman--Thanks for reminding me of the warnings about the Ice Age when we (or at least I) was growing up. Forgot about that one!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 20, 2017, 04:36:40 PM
Climate scientists did not in fact say we were heading
For ice age in the 70 ,a
That has been debunked
And yet deniers still like to bring that one out
Also so now deniers turn it around to say more warmth is better than more cold?.both are not good outcomes
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 20, 2017, 05:35:52 PM
Its not just about getting warmer...

Pure coincidence? Can you see some trend?
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/time-series

And this is just the U.S.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 20, 2017, 08:57:00 PM
Well I know of one particular Bureau of Meteorology that simply deleted the highest temperature ever recorded because it contradicted the theory that temperatures were rising. This being on Jan 3, 1909

These days the headline mongers have a bad habit of trying to make it all sound real: Yes the temperature was the hottest on record ...... since 1952, amazing so you mean its been hotter before 1952  =D>

Many countries have fiddled the maximum temps to make them appear higher than actual but NOAA took this a step further and homogenized both the minimum and maximum trying to increase the numbers game even further. Much of the temperature increase conspirators must live in cities and of course cities are hotter than 100 years ago, bitumen, high rise, air conditioners, vehicles most trees are gone and not a fluctuating cow in sight  :grin:.     
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 20, 2017, 10:16:58 PM
You will always get outliers in the data
And yes 100 years ago there was setups in the weather
Pattern at the time that ca used very high temperatures
Those setups Will hhappen again
The thing is ,more high temperature records are being
Broken than low temperature records around the world by a difference that is greater than natural variability explains
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 21, 2017, 03:51:48 AM
Natural variability might be able to be explained but there is absolutely nothing natural when met offices start diddling the data and start changing records based on stations that are 1000's of km apart just to achieve the numbers they want or need, there is absolutely nothing natural with homogenizing.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 21, 2017, 04:46:05 AM
They make it public the reasons for any changes to the data and why ( following accepted guidelines and procedures)
There is no conspiracy here.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 21, 2017, 05:56:49 AM
Not to mention the fact that ok, I know there were some data manipulation, but so what... this is definitely not the case of all these studies, you will unfortunately always have people who do sloppy work, change data to "suit" their needs etc. But that doesnt mean all these studies are wrong.

There is no reason why all the studies should be biased. Yes there are of course people/organizations for whom it might be beneficial if global warming was proven or supported by a study, however! There are also countless companies/people for whom quite the opposite is advantageous and they will do everything they can to have studies that deny global warming.

The conclusion therefore is that you will have both good and bad studies for both sides and so you can look at them equally. And when you do so, you will find that the number of studies supporting global warming by far outnumbers the ones that deny it.

And I want to emphasize one thing again and Ive said it here countless times already. I am NOT saying humans are responsible for global warming. I am always just saying that we dont know. Thats the problem. We dont know. This means that I disagree with those who simply say - no. What I therefore want is have people studying this and most importantly - take preventive measures because since we dont know one of the possibilities is obviously that it is so and in such case, if we dont do anything now, it might be too late.

This is the exact same principle as insurance. You pay insurance because you dont know whats gonna happen. And maybe nothing will happen, in which case good for you and I guess you wont regret spending the money for the insurance. And in case something does happen, you will be grateful for deciding to pay for it. Or think of making backups. It takes you time, it might cost you some money to do it, but you still do it, simply because you dont know if something is going to happen to your HDD and you want to make sure you are ok if there is a problem. It might then later turn out that you never needed the backup, but you probably wont regret it either and you wont regret the money/time invested to make the backup. You have to look at global warming as not a fact, but a possibility. The undeniable truth is that we currently dont know. No-one knows for sure because it is so complicated. Thats why I disagree with saying - we dont have a problem, we dont need to do anything, lets just ignore this. No, the fact is we MIGHT have a problem and therefore we have to act in such a way that in case it turns out we do, the consequences are as little as possible.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 21, 2017, 06:29:24 AM
They make it public the reasons for any changes to the data and why ( following accepted guidelines and procedures)
There is no conspiracy here.

Just excuses  :lol:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 21, 2017, 06:41:49 AM
There is a future for climate scientists  :grin:
(https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/art/cartoon/spooner/csiro-ex-climate-modelers.gif)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 21, 2017, 06:57:57 AM
Read my post, I never said there is global warming. I said we dont know and a smart thing to do is therefore take precautious measures until we are certain, just in case. I would never think anything bad about a person who thinks global warming is not caused by humans. I think it is but thats just my opinion. The only think we know for sure now is that we dont know :D So until we know, we should be cautious and prepare for both alternatives. If someone says I dont care, I think it is not happening and if it actually turns out it is and we are screwed, well too bad - in this case I will say that such person is just dumb, or total ignorant (and I dont mean anyone in particular now). I have nothing against people who deny global warming, I disagree with them, but I respect their opinion because I know that I also cannot say 100% they are wrong. Just like they cant say I am wrong - we are back to the fact this is something no-one currently knows and therefore it has to be studied further and we have to take action and prepare for both possibilities. Thats how a smart person thinks.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 21, 2017, 07:09:39 AM
So if we don't know then why are we fiddling the data to make it look like we do? We have to stop auditing data recorded yesterday to agree with the perceptions some want tomorrow. Climate scientists need to stop stooping to those that pay their salaries otherwise the data in due course will become absolutely useless for anything. 
 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 21, 2017, 07:15:24 AM
So you think 100% of all that has ever been said against global warming is verified and accurate?

Of course you will always have a few problematic or biased studies, thats just unavoidable in any field of science due to various reasons, but that in no way means everything is wrong.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: weatherc on April 21, 2017, 07:48:09 AM
Just a couple of €urocents ;)

- Are there any proof about that "met office sensors" are the accurate ones? No. If yes, then real data about it, please. Just saying they are accurate are no proof about it.
- Was the sensors 100 years ago as accurate as nowdays? Most probably no.
- Are todays values measured with same sensors as say at 100 years ago? No. Any data whats used for comparing should be collected in exactly same way for whole the period. => All data can be sent to junk-bin immedately as data with recent sensors can NOT be compared to data from 100 years ago.
- Say there is a measuring station in the middle of a city (there are lots of theese). Was there a similar city 100 years ago? No. Why in heck is this station then still collecting data as the condiotions are not the same as 100 years ago.
This list could be continued endless....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 21, 2017, 08:04:06 AM
There has been some question to sensor accuracy with the ASOS stations. They tend to run warmer than non ASOS stations. Then again it could be just plain poor siting which has been pointed out by many skeptics including me.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 21, 2017, 08:23:08 AM
Just a couple of €urocents ;)

- Are there any proof about that "met office sensors" are the accurate ones? No. If yes, then real data about it, please. Just saying they are accurate are no proof about it.
- Was the sensors 100 years ago as accurate as nowdays? Most probably no.
- Are todays values measured with same sensors as say at 100 years ago? No. Any data whats used for comparing should be collected in exactly same way for whole the period. => All data can be sent to junk-bin immedately as data with recent sensors can NOT be compared to data from 100 years ago.
- Say there is a measuring station in the middle of a city (there are lots of theese). Was there a similar city 100 years ago? No. Why in heck is this station then still collecting data as the condiotions are not the same as 100 years ago.
This list could be continued endless....

Yes, 100% agreed, so you exactly proved my point. We dont know because our data is limited. However based on the above you cannot say global warming is nonsense, because it could just well be that it actually is true. The fact we dont have data or dont have 100% accurate data, in no way means global warming is non-existant. It just exactly proves my point - currently we are at a point where we dont know. There is absoltuely no evidence or reason to think that if the sensors were accurate it would show that global warming is not happening.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 21, 2017, 08:34:59 AM
Here is an analogy:

- I say there are 1000 apples

You say that Im not very good at counting. I admit that.

However, all you can conclude from this is that the number could be different - but it doesnt have to.

So sensors are not accurate, i admit that (although we have other ways to detect this indirectly these days, but I wont go into that for now). Then that does not mean it was colder, or that the trend is different. It could be, or it could be the way we see it now, or it could be warming up even more and the sensor inaccuracy makes us believe it is warming less. Do you see what i mean?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 21, 2017, 02:55:00 PM
Some countries the climate scientists are paid for by
The government
No agendas,no chasing funds to keep their jobs

Those countries still show global warming
Remember,the USA is not the world
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 21, 2017, 02:58:11 PM
Also,if you do trust our thermometers
Then use nature's ones
That shows warming too
( plants growing habits/ zones etc)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 21, 2017, 03:04:13 PM
Some countries the climate scientists are paid for by
The government
No agendas,no chasing funds to keep their jobs

Those countries still show global warming
Remember,the USA is not the world

What... You think because they work for the government they don't have a agenda. OMG..............ROLMAO   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 21, 2017, 03:38:32 PM
There agenda would be to try and show
There Was not going to be extra costs and burdens
to the government I.e the government advisors would be trying to show the government it does not need to change policy etc
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 21, 2017, 03:39:06 PM
Read my post, even if all sensors were totally inaccurate (which is very unlikely), then it still does not mean anything. It just puts the climate warming idea as "possible" instead of "certain", but it does not make it nonsense.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 21, 2017, 06:17:14 PM
I am happy to agree the climate is changing .... it has been changing ever since the dawn of time, in hindsight this is something we do actually know. Now this term Global warming is where the discussion gets lost and all the excuses and so called reasons for and against it. To state there is no agenda with global warming would have to be the worst quote of the century.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 21, 2017, 06:31:16 PM
So you agree the climate is warming,I.e changing,I.e the globe is getting warmer,currently,yes?
Or that the climate is changin, as it does ( no one will argue with that),but not the globe is getting warmer?
Which is your status,agenda aside ( and no,not everyone has an agenda to prove it exists,in fact if you had an agenda to prove there is no global warming occurring currently then you would have a hard time with that)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 21, 2017, 07:43:03 PM
So you agree the climate is warming,I.e changing,I.e the globe is getting warmer,currently,yes?
Or that the climate is changin, as it does ( no one will argue with that),but not the globe is getting warmer?
Which is your status,agenda aside ( and no,not everyone has an agenda to prove it exists,in fact if you had an agenda to prove there is no global warming occurring currently then you would have a hard time with that)

NO I said the climate is changing, there is the other side of the so called warming debate called global cooling, oh that's right conveniently forgotten by some as it doesn't suit their purpose. Now I can just see the next response :) more denial
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ocala on April 21, 2017, 09:03:22 PM
 ](*,)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 21, 2017, 09:19:52 PM
I always enjoy the debate in this thread :D
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on April 21, 2017, 11:01:30 PM
From the National Review, The only Climate Change chart you need to see!
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Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on April 21, 2017, 11:03:09 PM
The same info with better scaling
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Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 21, 2017, 11:18:20 PM
Thanks for sharing,  an obvious trend upwards
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 21, 2017, 11:21:14 PM
Well NASA has already been caught out fiddling the Iceland temperature records, thought they were so clever nobody would ever notice but they were busted big time. What NASA did was create warming where there is none and what they are actually doing has absolutely nothing to do with science, it's called fraud. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 21, 2017, 11:23:34 PM
This link is from Lake Powell science center on paleoclimate. http://www.lakepowell.net/sciencecenter/paleoclimate.htm

They point out ocean currents play a big role.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ocala on April 22, 2017, 06:20:00 AM
Good link Randy.
Some interesting stuff in there.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 22, 2017, 09:09:53 AM
Good link Randy.
Some interesting stuff in there.

Yes some interesting stuff I learned also. I've been in the science center a few times the area of southern Utah is rich in history of our planet including fossil paradise.

They believe we will go into another ice age eventually. Quote: As long as the continent of Antarctica exists at the southern pole of our planet we probably will be repeatedly pulled back into glacial ice ages.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 22, 2017, 09:19:28 AM
No-one here has ever said climate change was not affected by Sun cycles, ocean currents etc. And I also never said all studies (both for and against) climate change/global warming are accurate, properly conducted and using accurate data - this is never 100% so, no matter which field of science you look at.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 22, 2017, 09:41:37 AM
But we do have these Al Gores and Leonardo DiCaprio's running around with their private jets spewing this doom and gloom hysteria man burning fossil fuel is the cause of global warming.
My point is those that study climate paleontology say its much more involved with many factors and nothing is going to stop climate change its been cycling millions of years without mans involvement.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on April 22, 2017, 10:21:55 AM
Ah, but do those same people make a claim that man has an effect on those changes? They may or may not and those effects can make it more extreme or may even make it less extreme.

If man would have any effect, it would have only come since the industrial revolution and within that only in the last 70 years or so. Only during this time has man made drastic changed to the composition of the earth. Even without any proof of any effect, should we try to minimize these possible effects or just keep merrily going about our way continuing along to current path?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on April 22, 2017, 10:37:19 AM
Now on to the subject of changing past data. If as we get smarter and as we get better equipment we get a better understanding of many subject. Through studying past events compared with the newer more accurate data we can know that past studies and data were not correct. Should we just ignore that past incorrect data or strive to correct it?

In fact many owners or Davis stations have upgraded to better more accurate temperature sensors. If through studying current more accurate data the error factor of the old data be figured out should a user correct that old data or should they just shrug their shoulders, say who cares, it is what it is and let the inaccurate data be used. Or should they go and try to correct that bad data?

Remember, at one time people thought the earth was flat. Through more study, better instruments and data, it was found that the earth is round. Should that new data have been ignored and we continue to believe the earth is flat just to keep the old data and satisfy those that believe it? I just bring up this old obvious example to show that old data has been changed for 1000s of years to reflect new realities.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 22, 2017, 11:12:00 AM
You would be surprised how many people still believe it is flat :D :D :D
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 22, 2017, 06:25:40 PM
So should only 10 years of so called "pristine weather recordings" with so called whiz bang sensors from deliberately "selected sites" be a trigger to homogenize relative recent history? 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 23, 2017, 04:27:47 PM
sunspot cycles/solar activity has been decreasing over the last couple of solar sunspot cycles,i.e the sun is going through a solar minimum, so the earth should be cooler than 'normal', but instead its steadily warming (and also there has been more La Nina episodes , which should also make the globe cooler)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 23, 2017, 04:31:58 PM
Quote
My point is those that study climate paleontology say its much more involved with many factors and nothing is going to stop climate change its been cycling millions of years without mans involvement.
but no one has said the climate does not change

you have cycles on top of cycles, short term, long term, etc
some reinforce each other, some cancel each other, etc

with global warming, those cycles are still there, but you have a background warming offset

Quote
NO I said the climate is changing
so people in this thread do acknowledge that the climate is currently warming
but some think its just a natural cycle

if it is a natural cycle, then it should go up and then down, ie a cycle
time will tell if the trend changes to cooling

if the globe is still warming 15 years from now, what will you say then?..that it just be a long term natural warmer cycle we are in..just will have to wait longer for it to peak?

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 26, 2017, 02:19:43 PM
Interesting article here
http://theconversation.com/yes-we-can-do-sound-climate-science-even-though-its-projecting-the-future-75763
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gwwilk on April 26, 2017, 02:39:14 PM
Interesting article here
http://theconversation.com/yes-we-can-do-sound-climate-science-even-though-its-projecting-the-future-75763
No model can accurately project such a complex system as our planetary environment a day into the future (as we see with our weather forecasts), much less a year, or two, or twenty (BTW, reputable climatologists will set 30 years as the minimum weather duration for determining climate, the NWS deceptive 'Climate Prediction Center' notwithstanding.)  The assumptions built into such models as these ALWAYS determine the results.  As usual, the emperor has no clothes.  Models can only be viewed as producing possible outcomes within the models' constraints, not predicting the future.  I think it's best not to base any decisions upon such a sandy foundation as what these models produce.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 26, 2017, 02:54:01 PM
but its not predicting the future
read the article again ;)
also read the part about how projections have already come true
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 26, 2017, 03:01:53 PM
Just came back from a business trip to a conference 2 hours ago - one of the presentations talked about the climate models. One person asked how can we tell their accuracy. My colleague, a climatologist, who was presenting it, answered - we cant. But we have been doing this for about 15 years already and what we predicted 100% matched the reality in terms of rate of warming, increasing number of extremes, disasters etc.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 26, 2017, 03:17:27 PM
So are these climate models as reliable as the forecast models? Forecast models are only looking at a few months out and can't get it right. 
Remember the headlines…'too big to fail' is one I'll never forget.
 
Massive El Niño is now 'too big to fail,' scientist says - LA Times
Actually what happened  'too big to fail' EL NINO IS A BUST AS CALIFORNIA ENTERS 6TH YEAR OF DROUGHT, WEATHER EXPERTS SAY  :oops:

And then this one from last year with La Nina beginning.
Jun 6, 2016 La Nina is on the way — don't expect CA drought to lessen - CNBC.com
Actually what happened was a very wet season with Snowpack 173% Normal. Rainfall 172% Normal.  :oops:


Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 26, 2017, 03:21:05 PM
Deliberately picking one example from one place at one time where it did not work....

Forecast models work totally differently and forecast exact weather. Climate models predict trends and long-term changes.

Long-term forecast - a few months
long-term prediction - decades

But it is all down to what you want to believe. If someone thinks it is in their economical benefit to do something then they will always try to find reasons to justify such (imho very short-sighted) decisions
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 28, 2017, 03:36:58 PM
I was waiting in a bank today and in the waiting room they had the National Geographic magazine from April 17.

One of the main articles was about global warming/climate change.

Very interesting read:

http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/04/seven-things-to-know-about-climate-change/

Now you tell me why I should think that a highly prestigious international magazine would publish nonsense. Why 9 out of 10 scientists believe something, people who have first-hand information.

I know you are going to start again how data from some particular station sometime in the past was manipulated, how this and this person thinks otherwise, give links to some articles... but the problem is that you have to look at it as a whole. 10% of scientists might be sceptical. This is a large number of course, but it is nothing compared to the remaining 90%.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 28, 2017, 03:49:50 PM
and if the data is flawed and the assumptions were flawed, then how come model projections from 15 years ago are coming true?
(and so this is why a degree of faith can be placed in the model projections for the coming decades, yes?)
good read that link Jáchym
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on April 28, 2017, 05:12:04 PM
After our hottest March on record last month, this April will go down as 4th hottest here. Also of interest, I saw a graph on the largest forest fires in Arizona history today and out of the 16 displayed, 14 of them occurred this century, the other two were in 1996.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on April 28, 2017, 05:58:45 PM
There is one station here in the Czech Republic in Prague, which has a continuous series since 1781! One of the longest in the world.

We keep statistics of the absolute max and min daily average for every day in the year.

Looking at the table, it includes approximately 700 years - for each day in the year there are two years - year of max and year of min.

The list of years for absolute maximum has over 70% years that start with a "2". The table with absolute min does not have a single one....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on May 04, 2017, 08:07:03 PM
Officially "broke the ice" as it's sometimes called around here with us hitting 100F today, which is seventh earliest occurrence on record.
With that, an unseasonably deep digging trough will be in the SW Tue. progged to give us three consecutive days of high temps in the 70's, something that hasn't happened here this late since 1979.
I'm wondering about the severe potential this might have in the Plains come Wed. and beyond.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 06, 2017, 08:38:06 AM
The Al Gore's and others making a living pushing the bad science now want the Courts to make it illegal to even question climate change.
So we may be arrested soon for even disputing the garbage science. And they wonder why so many are angry with the direction we are headed. Just look at the USA election process this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg, we haven't seen anything yet.   

What’s  this world coming to?  :evil: :evil:

How much warmer must it get before it's no longer bad science?  7 straight days of 100 degrees or more in Fairbanks, Alaska?

I'm not disputing we aren't warming but its at the natural rate since the last ice age. Man has zero to do with the outcome based on the minuscule amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere.
These false alarmist are basing data on cooked books and computer models. Having a super strong El Nino being the generator behind the warmth this year has nothing to do with man caused warming. I guess we forgot about the 3-4 prior record cold winters.

I look at the big picture not the few years we have been here and don't reinforce the rhetoric based on remembering my childhood weather events.  People that do that are followers not innovators.

Watts Up With That, the worlds most visited climate change and global warming site has some graphs for the paleoclimate and some other good information including this years heat generator El Nino.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/paleoclimate/

Interesting. You reject the conclusions of 95% of climate scientists (translation: people who have dedicated their lives to climatology) and then use "the worlds most visited climate change and global warming site" to sell the Fox News of climate sites.

I'm a forest scientist with deep training in boundary layer climatology and I've literally read hundreds of papers on climate change and looked directly at datasets from paleo sites (primarily bogs) and long-term ecological stations (dendrochrono work) in the Northeast as part of my work in disturbance ecology. There is only one conclusion to draw and that is AGW is real. You can play all of the alternative facts games that you want but it doesn't change the data, the scientific method, or science's embrace of objectivity.

Attacking models for fine-grained failures is another demonstration of ignorance of modeling.

Here's a fact for you: deniers are almost without exception political partisans. If Trump came out tomorrow and said AGW was a crisis, his cult would drink that kool-aid in a flash.

As a scientist, it's all rather discouraging. One can never change the mind of a denier as they bounce irrationally from lie to lie, Kelly Ann Conway-style.

So with that, I'm out!

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Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 06, 2017, 07:25:46 PM
Main stream reasoning for the so called global warming has been the excuse around burning fossil fuel and CO2 but CO2 levels today are some of the lowest on record. So why continue with this CO2 excuse, don't they have a substantiated reason that actually correlates to something that is beyond question? If this was the case then there wouldn't be any need for wild assumptions based on factual non selective evidence 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 06, 2017, 07:33:06 PM
One of the lowest on record...

(http://www.debate.org/photos/albums/1/2/1595/35013-1595-cbyuy-a.jpg)

Not to mention we are not talking just about the absolute values, but rather the rate of change
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 06, 2017, 09:07:21 PM
Mattk, where do you get your altnerative facts that CO2 levesl are amoung the lowest on record?
what is your source?

check out the graph Jáchym posted...do you still stand by your statement?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 06, 2017, 09:08:40 PM
One of the lowest on record...

(http://www.debate.org/photos/albums/1/2/1595/35013-1595-cbyuy-a.jpg)

Not to mention we are not talking just about the absolute values, but rather the rate of change

A year from now, this CO2 graph will probably point downward.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 06, 2017, 09:30:45 PM
Mattk, where do you get your altnerative facts that CO2 levesl are amoung the lowest on record?
what is your source?

check out the graph Jáchym posted...do you still stand by your statement?

400,00 years is nothing but a mere blip in time, doesn't say much at all, lets see a graph back to before dinosaurs and beyond.     
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on May 07, 2017, 01:17:21 AM
Mattk, where do you get your altnerative facts that CO2 levesl are amoung the lowest on record?
what is your source?

check out the graph Jáchym posted...do you still stand by your statement?

400,00 years is nothing but a mere blip in time, doesn't say much at all, lets see a graph back to before dinosaurs and beyond.     
You still didn't answer the question.... where do you get your alternative facts?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 07, 2017, 03:45:25 AM
Mattk, where do you get your altnerative facts that CO2 levesl are amoung the lowest on record?
what is your source?

check out the graph Jáchym posted...do you still stand by your statement?

400,00 years is nothing but a mere blip in time, doesn't say much at all, lets see a graph back to before dinosaurs and beyond.     
You still didn't answer the question.... where do you get your alternative facts?

I like to deal with ALL the facts not just a convenient subset, how about you providing ALL the facts for a better overall comparison instead of a limited data set that fits your thinking and limited to a few hundred thousand years, it's really annoying when people only want to put up data subsets that suits their purpose. I really want to know who was burning all that coal and raising the CO2 levels all that time ago :) Maybe all those dinosaurs were big on flatulence!   

It's much like the news these days, yes folks it has been the hottest day on record ..... since 1952, so then it was hotter before 1952 .... oh how selective and sensational have some become.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 07, 2017, 05:48:59 AM
there are graphs showing CO2 levels going back much further in time -> the levels currently have not been seen for millions of years
Quote
A year from now, this CO2 graph will probably point downward.
CO2 leves do go up and down, yearly, as a cycle
(but the trend is up)
where is your evidence that the CO2 levels will trend downwars in a year from now, what do you base that on?

Quote
t's much like the news these days, yes folks it has been the hottest day on record ..... since 1952, so then it was hotter before 1952 .... oh how selective and sensational have some become.
yes, there are always outliers in the tempeature records (spikes)
that had not changed
but think of global warming as a Y axis offset..i.e you shift those spikes up (upward and downward spikes)..so we are now breaking more max
temperture records than min temperature records
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bashy on May 07, 2017, 06:47:56 AM

I like to deal with ALL the facts not just a convenient subset, how about you providing ALL the facts for a better overall comparison instead of a limited data set that fits your thinking and limited to a few hundred thousand years, it's really annoying when people only want to put up data subsets that suits their purpose. I really want to know who was burning all that coal and raising the CO2 levels all that time ago :) Maybe all those dinosaurs were big on flatulence!   

It's much like the news these days, yes folks it has been the hottest day on record ..... since 1952, so then it was hotter before 1952 .... oh how selective and sensational have some become.

There was much more volcanic activity back then chap, that would account for the CO2 in question ;)

A good read....

https://news.utexas.edu/2010/11/17/humans-now-steer-climate-bus
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 07, 2017, 08:25:07 AM
Mattk, where do you get your altnerative facts that CO2 levesl are amoung the lowest on record?
what is your source?

check out the graph Jáchym posted...do you still stand by your statement?

400,00 years is nothing but a mere blip in time, doesn't say much at all, lets see a graph back to before dinosaurs and beyond.     
You still didn't answer the question.... where do you get your alternative facts?

I like to deal with ALL the facts not just a convenient subset, how about you providing ALL the facts for a better overall comparison instead of a limited data set that fits your thinking and limited to a few hundred thousand years, it's really annoying when people only want to put up data subsets that suits their purpose. I really want to know who was burning all that coal and raising the CO2 levels all that time ago :) Maybe all those dinosaurs were big on flatulence!   

It's much like the news these days, yes folks it has been the hottest day on record ..... since 1952, so then it was hotter before 1952 .... oh how selective and sensational have some become.

Read the question you were asked and read your answer. This is exactly what I find really annoying. You try to diverge attention from the original question. You were asked very clearly - provide source and some exact data for your statement that CO2 levels are currently one of the lowest on record.

You obviously try avoiding answering this by again just debunking what we write, but I want you to ignore what I said for now and only provide some evidence for your arguments.

Look at what you wrote, instead answering the question:
Quote
how about you providing ALL the facts

Thats not evidence for your statements and ignore what we said for now.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: AWL on May 07, 2017, 08:49:37 AM
600 million years?

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 07, 2017, 08:54:50 AM
But the problem is that you have to take into account two other things:
- the overall concentrations of all gases in the atmosphere were quite different in the past and there were no humans (which require certain levels of O2, CO2, T etc.)
- look at the rate of change, no-one is saying there are no cycles which cause fluctuation in T, CO2 etc. There is no doubt about that. The problem is how fast this is now changing and unlike the slow changes to which organisms can adapt, they cannot adapt to what is happening now in long term.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on May 07, 2017, 10:12:28 AM
Let's not forget that during those early times there were a number of mass extinctions with 70 to 90 percent of all living creatures dying. Guess that graph kind of shows that may have been one of the things that lead up to those mass extinctions.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 07, 2017, 10:41:08 AM
Exactly, you cannot look at hundreds of millions of yrs worth of data when you want to deduce the consequences for humans. For humans, the relevant graph is the one I posted above, and look at the rate of change and absolute value.

I have MSc in genetics and mol.bio and I know what sort of organisms were on Earth during the times you want to look at and yes you are right, bacteria and some other organisms wont mind very high CO2 concentrations, temperature swings etc.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 07, 2017, 10:56:08 AM
Mattk, where do you get your altnerative facts that CO2 levesl are amoung the lowest on record?
what is your source?

check out the graph Jáchym posted...do you still stand by your statement?

400,00 years is nothing but a mere blip in time, doesn't say much at all, lets see a graph back to before dinosaurs and beyond.     

I'm sure that I just won our lab's monthly pool for best denier quote. Thanks.

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 07, 2017, 11:09:53 AM
Just to put things into perspective and explain why my graph is much more relevant:
(http://evolution.berkeley.edu/admin/media/2/29425_evo_resources_resource_image_277_original.gif)

Do you think for us, humans, it is useful to look at what was half a billion yrs ago?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 07, 2017, 01:58:19 PM
actually 800,000 years is the current limit for ice cores
but they are hoping to go over 1 million years
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/06/the-oldest-ice-core-finding-a-1-5-million-year-record-of-earths-climate/
but even 400,000 years covers lots of ice ages and inter warm periods
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 07, 2017, 05:38:34 PM
Let's not forget that during those early times there were a number of mass extinctions with 70 to 90 percent of all living creatures dying. Guess that graph kind of shows that may have been one of the things that lead up to those mass extinctions.

But wait there's more, More assumptions, never ends. Some of the data obviously doesn't sit all that well with some, doesn't show what they want it to show and don't have any answers either.   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 07, 2017, 05:51:19 PM
No, our graphs are quite clear.

If you want to look at consequences for the planet Earth - then look at million/billion yr spanning graphs. Those will show you that the planet is ok with much higher CO2 levels.

If you want to look at consequences for humans and higher animals - then look at 10k/100k yr spanning graphs.

So depends which one is important for you...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 07, 2017, 09:56:23 PM
Probably the biggest delusionists on all this global warming stuff are the very same people trying to sensationalize and keep all the misinformation in the headlines which is obviously for some reason other than the claims they are trying to make.

Once upon a time there was a certain professor (name isn't important but the title is relevant) who claimed the rains would fail totally, dams would never be full again and coastal parts of the country would be inundated by rising sea levels .... and people actually believed him. Well guess what the rains came (as usual), the dams over topped and the tide is still coming in and going out. Then with foot in mouth same professor comes out and claims the rains are due to global warming, hang on there, wasn't the rains supposed to fail because of global warming, can't have it both ways but some would like to think so. Talk about some rather bizarre thinking and getting it so spectacularly wrong and this professor is supposed to know something about climate science, what rubbish, just preaching what he was expected to preach for in this case political purposes. Guess what he even caught himself short on this one.

The one quote that came out of all this stupidity was: The professor is no expert, but neither are the experts. Way to many so called smart people who should know better confusing climate variability for climate change and when one wants to believe then it's rather difficult for these people to have an open mind.         
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on May 07, 2017, 11:11:42 PM
Probably the biggest delusionists on all this global warming stuff are the very same people trying to sensationalize and keep all the misinformation in the headlines which is obviously for some reason other than the claims they are trying to make.
     
I happen to agree with your statement, but likely not in the way you'd first think.  I think the delusionists are the ones who bring up (continually) outlier cases as cause to dismiss the whole idea as some conspiracy.  Weather and climate science are not exact, but are statistically better to tease out the trends.  When 97% of the scientists in the field agree that human caused CO2 emissions are a major factor driving the warming trend, I think they know better (and have better reasoning) than the 3% of the climate scientists who may still disagree as to humans being the cause.  Irrespective of the underlying cause, the trend is plainly warmer as evidenced by record losses of Arctic sea-ice and glaciers receding worldwide at a pace not seen in modern times.  The permafrost in Alaska, Northern Canada, Europe and Russia are thawing at an alarming rate and likely to release even more methane in the future, which only exacerbates the warming trend.

Natural or human-exacerbated, the warming is continuing and major changes to human habitability zones are in our future.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 07, 2017, 11:54:59 PM
The correct wording is "97% or more of actively publishing climate scientists how many is that? who knows, do you know? There is no clear consensus from anywhere near 97% of "the scientists", which is essentially 100% wrong in context. We have to stop this manipulating of words and numbers and reality
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 08, 2017, 12:52:13 AM
97% of people who studied this, have first hand data and spend most of their time trying to put together all the evidence agree on this

... But there comes Mattk and the other "experts" who are convinced that for some unknown reason they know better
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 08, 2017, 03:05:00 AM
So Jáchym what is the % of climate scientists that do not actively publish? And no the answer is not 3% :) Think about the question being asked here. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bashy on May 08, 2017, 03:53:26 AM
Hi Mattk

I see that some members have asked you questions, even i answered one of yours regarding CO2, but you do not seem to be able to answer them, you reply with with another question, perhaps answering their questions will take this topic further, as it stands its going round in circles. I too would like to see what you have to backup what you say? Graphs have been shown to you to back up what they are saying, how about the courtesy to show what you have found out please?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 08, 2017, 05:46:21 AM
Bashy, Yes others have certainly provided evidence and this evidence is nothing secret or hidden away in dim dark places, it is out there for all so why would I want to put up the same links, in some ways I am more interested in seeing what some people don't want to know anything about, everybody knows the information is out there, but many are stuck with their own tunnel vision.

Much like this 97% claim raised by those who think the figure of 97% means something, actually it means absolutely jack, 97% of what, nobody actually knows but it sure sounds good and continuously put forward as some form of justification but for what? Yep 97% of actively publishing climate scientists, so how many is actively publishing compared to those that are not and those that are not, do they support or oppose? We simply do not know.       
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 08, 2017, 08:29:01 AM
Tunnel vision? I am not the one who ignores the opinion of vast majority.

OK, originally I did not want to mention this, because I did not want to praise myself, but at this point I feel like I have no other choice.

I work as a meteorologist/climatologist and I dare to say I know a bit more about it than you do - this is not to say Im more intelligent or so, but simply because this is what I do on a daily basis. I am sure I have more information about this than you and more importantly, I also have first-hand data. You dont. You dont administer a network of over 680 stations with data series as far back as 1785. Ive participated in developing the 5th IPCC report and Im also very good at statistics (which is what I do most of the time), so I know very well how to analyze data and how to draw conclusions.

Your argument that not all scinentists are actively publishing is actually quite weak. First of all, there is absolutely no reason to think that vast majority of scientists keep everything to themselves - and it would have to be a huge number otherwise they would not outweigh the 97% who do publish. And even if I completely disregard this, even if there really were a lot of scientists who dont publish (which I can guarantee you is definitely less than who publish, I know this because again, i deal with this on a daily basis) - then the important thing is that from the statistical perspective there is no reason to think that this not-publishing remainder has a totally different opinion than those who publish. So it is most likely that those not-publishing are also 97% for human caused GW, if you think otherwise then please provide VALID arguments for why the percentage of GW deniers who do not publish is opposite to those who do publish.

I am not saying all data is good. Unfortunately you will never avoid situations where someone publishes nonsense or makes incorrect assumptions and this is by no means a problem just with climatology. The problem is that this is what then gets publicity. You then see these huge headlines in the news about data being manipulated - well yes, but that was maybe 1 in 10000. The problem is that journalists look for sensations and so an article titled "Correctly used data" is probably not going to draw much attention...

It is still not clear to me why people dont accept the opinion of those who really study and understand this. If for example you feel sick and you go to the doctor´s and they tell you what the problem is and diagnose the problem and you then go to your friend´s house and they tell you they think it is something different, who will you trust? This is the same thing. You have thousands and thousands of scientists, climatologists like me, who studied carefully what they see and came to these conclusions. And then you have people like Donald Trump who announces there is no global warming "because it was quite cold last week in Boston" - how can you take someone like that seriously if they dont even have a clue what the difference between climate and weather is and the GW concept being much more difficult to understand.

Ive also told you why your billion year graphs are useless. We are not talking about the consequences for the planet as such, or for some primitive bacteria or prokaryotes. We are talking about the consequences for us, humans. For us the important graph is the one I posted and it is not just about the absolute levels, but also the rate of change. And GW is far more than just increasing temperatures. It includes changes in weather patterns, occurence of extremes etc etc. Here in the Czech Republic for example, what we see in the last 10-20 years is a huge increase in these extremes. Overall for example, the annual precipitation is more or less constant. However we know have very long completely dry periods, followed by several days with downpour, which is totally useless because it is not absorbed by the soil when it is so quick and so we are constantly in a drought condition. Last 6 winters we had almost no snow. I am 30 and I already remember something totally different when I was small. We had snow on ground for 1-2 months straight almost every winter. In 1997 and in 2003 we had the largest floods in the last several hunderds of years.

My point is - this is all very complicated and just like in any other field, you have to trust those that understand it more, those who have first-hand data, knowledge to draw conclusions.

Also your political arguments are nonsense. I will use my country as an example again. Here in Europe most people believe in GW, you would find far less deniers, most people, in fact vast majority, trust people like me. There is absolutely no pressure on me to bias the data so that they support GW. If I published the opposite I would have no financial gain or any other benefit. In fact I am sure it would even be welcomed by some because in my country we still have lot of coal powerplants which are now being closed down or limited by legislation more and more due to our conculsions and data. And these private companies have huge interest in articles that would deny GW - unfortunately such articles are not published simply because I am not going to publish something I do not believe. So yes, there is a pressure on us, but more in the other way...

And I could continue....

If you want to argue any further than I would please ask you to provide valid arguments, not just ask more questions or question what I said. Thats not argumentation. All you have said so far is in a sense "I think", "surely it is true"
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 08, 2017, 01:40:39 PM
Geez , enough with the pissing contest....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 08, 2017, 02:08:18 PM
Geez , enough with the pissing contest....

If you´re not interested, no-one is forcing you to read it.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 08, 2017, 02:34:20 PM
Geez , enough with the pissing contest....

If you´re not interested, no-one is forcing you to read it.

Well not when it keeps coming up in the un-read section....smh
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 08, 2017, 02:35:56 PM
...this is beginning to sound like a broken record, playing the same speech over and over...and over...and over.

Yep, seems to re-ignite every so often. Each side wants to prove the other wrong, ergo my "pissing contest" post....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 08, 2017, 03:23:09 PM
time will tell
I am hoping that people will eat their hats (both sides) in the future if its turns out either side was correct
( I am willing to eat my hat if it turns out the warming trend was just a natural cycle (i.e we change to a cooling trend)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 08, 2017, 04:09:29 PM
...this is beginning to sound like a broken record, playing the same speech over and over...and over...and over.

Yep, seems to re-ignite every so often. Each side wants to prove the other wrong, ergo my "pissing contest" post....

The only problem is that it is not really an argument between two sides. One side provides arguments with evidence. The other side constantly tries to disprove these, but rather than also explaining their reasoning, they either ask another question or make statements without any evidence, source etc.

Matkk:
If you want to argue further then please provide evidence (other than your opinion) that:
1) majority of scientists do not actively publish
2) this majority has totally opposite view to that of those who do publish (otherwise you will not outweigh the 97% obviously)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on May 08, 2017, 05:43:36 PM
What happened the proverbial "Gentlemen's Agreement to Politely/Quietly Disagree"?
Any semblance of that went out the door on 1/20/17, at least in this country. :roll:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 08, 2017, 07:29:47 PM
Climate change is a topic that will never change any minds. Those that believe it is a hoax will never believe any study that concludes otherwise. And those that believe climate change is a very serious issue will never believe any evidence or conclusion to prove otherwise. No one will ever change a perspective from the "correct one" so bottom line? We are wasting WXForum space to try and change perspectives but we are having fun none the less! Maybe we should beat another dead horse like guessing or wishing, like we have for years in this Forum, whether or when Davis will release a replacement to its aging Vantage Pro 2 product line!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 08, 2017, 07:35:28 PM
Quote
And those that believe climate change is a very serious issue will never believe any evidence or conclusion to prove otherwise

This is not true. The problem is that there was no evidence provided, it is always just assumptions or personal subjective opinions.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on May 08, 2017, 07:36:41 PM
What happened the proverbial "Gentlemen's Agreement to Politely/Quietly Disagree"?
Any semblance of that went out the door on 1/20/17, at least in this country. :roll:
But, I was referring to THIS "horse" (wink,wink).
I know.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 08, 2017, 07:38:07 PM
Quote
And those that believe climate change is a very serious issue will never believe any evidence or conclusion to prove otherwise

This is not true. The problem is that there was no evidence provided, it is always just assumptions or personal subjective opinions.

Jáchym, obviously, we know which camp you sit in!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 08, 2017, 08:35:20 PM
What happened the proverbial "Gentlemen's Agreement to Politely/Quietly Disagree"?
Any semblance of that went out the door on 1/20/17, at least in this country. :roll:
How true ! ! !  But, I was referring to THIS "horse" (wink,wink).

How typical... and when they run out of arguments they start insulting others...

As they say

You can't teach an "old dog" (wink,wink) new tricks
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 09, 2017, 05:38:36 AM
Now why do those that need specific numbers have to fiddle the book to achieve those numbers? These would be the same people who would prefer to use a measuring tape made of elastic, stretch a little here, a little there, you know to make it fit the job. And there's plenty of evidence of this so don't bleat about links, everybody knows this has gone on, is currently going on and the reasoning (excuses) simply have not (never) stacked up. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 09, 2017, 05:49:06 AM
Now why do those that need specific numbers have to fiddle the book to achieve those numbers? These would be the same people who would prefer to use a measuring tape made of elastic, stretch a little here, a little there, you know to make it fit the job. And there's plenty of evidence of this so don't bleat about links, everybody knows this has gone on, is currently going on and the reasoning (excuses) simply have not (never) stacked up.

OK, as expected, no evidence or support for your arguments whatsoever other than "everybody knows". In such case there really is no point in arguing with you.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 09, 2017, 06:36:17 AM
So who is stretching the elastic tape then  :grin: Has everybody else got it wrong? Apparently not

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html)

]http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/how-much-global-warming-is-just-fiddled-data/news-story/753c8cd3e27365b42c8bff0a43943c2b] (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/how-much-global-warming-is-just-fiddled-data/news-story/753c8cd3e27365b42c8bff0a43943c2b)

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/24/german-professor-nasa-fiddled-climate-data-unbelievable-scale/ (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/24/german-professor-nasa-fiddled-climate-data-unbelievable-scale/)

http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/02/australias-hottest-day-record-ever-deleted/ (http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/02/australias-hottest-day-record-ever-deleted/)

http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/01/homogenisation-used-embed-artificial-warming-trend-colorado-temperature-record/ (http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/01/homogenisation-used-embed-artificial-warming-trend-colorado-temperature-record/)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 09, 2017, 07:36:39 AM
And it continues..... :roll:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bashy on May 09, 2017, 07:52:23 AM
It only takes one media outlet to write rubbish based on misquotes etc and others follow suit cause they think its a good story
The media writes what they think will sell their papers

Seriously, i wouldnt believe any story from the UK media, i mean, look at some of their winter and summer forecast, SNOW FOR 100 DAYS., SMOWMAGEDDON
HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD NEXT WEEK, and so on, so i will just say, everyone has their own opinion based on what they believe, there are folks that believe
in the YETI and Sasquatch , dont mean its real ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on May 09, 2017, 08:10:14 AM
So who is stretching the elastic tape then  :grin: Has everybody else got it wrong? Apparently not

So you give a couple blog posts and a couple fake news sites as proof?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 09, 2017, 09:02:57 AM
Just looking at the first link you provided, it was written by a British JOURNALIST who specializes on EU politics.... very credible source
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 09, 2017, 02:10:01 PM
mattk, are you trying to argue that there is no current warming trend?
(by putting up links about the fiddling of data (yes some data records have been changed, but the reasoning for those changes is made public at the time)
(if you are , then I think you might be the only one on this thread who is)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 09, 2017, 04:55:35 PM
The question was re fiddling data, I know some want to offset and change the subject away from the fiddling facts with pseudo anti-claims etc  So do the whistle-blowers have it wrong, has everybody that doesn't agree with some here have it wrong, and the question was if the data doesn't back up the claims then why do some want to fiddle and make it appear to fit the claims, like if the data stood by itself (and it apparently does not) then there would be no need to fiddle it, would there?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: saratogaWX on May 09, 2017, 05:23:06 PM
You seem to be obsessed with 'fiddling with the data'.  Perhaps you've seen http://www.snopes.com/2017/02/08/noaa-scientists-climate-change-data/ which explains what happened and why it's not the issue you may think it is.
I prefer to get my data from the professionals as in https://ec.europa.eu/clima/change/causes_en and the http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml which documents the international findings.  Using Breitbart (alt-news) and personal blogs as sources may make fun reading, but hardly ones subjected to scientific peer-review like those from the IPCC or NOAA which have much more scientific consensus and credibility.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 09, 2017, 05:40:30 PM
The IPCC 5th report is divided into 4 books, each almost thousand pages and about third of that is sources and thousands of scientists who contributed. Now compare with an article by a journalist specializing in EU politics
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 09, 2017, 05:42:14 PM
So would anybody expect NOAA is going to highlight one of there own (ex) chiefs like Dr John Bates who blew the whistle on NOAA, of course not, so is Mr Bates not a creditable witness now :) One just can't brush details like this aside because of the info source.

So is Mr Bates now not creditable being an ex NOAA data chief? 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 09, 2017, 05:50:51 PM
Read this: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

Obviously it is going to take you some time, but you might get a better idea. I read it all and even helped creating it. I dare to say I have a lot more information and Ive read articles about the data manipulation as well and I know about it, but based on everything I know Im very clear about what I believe.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 09, 2017, 05:55:27 PM
Read this: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

...  but based on everything I know Im very clear about what I believe.

You and Al Gore, who has made millions of dollars (a politician no less) promoting a bunch of ....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 09, 2017, 06:04:40 PM
Read this: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

...  but based on everything I know Im very clear about what I believe.

You and Al Gore, who has made millions of dollars (a politician no less) promoting a bunch of ....

Thanks for highly informative and invaluable post
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on May 09, 2017, 06:19:29 PM
So would anybody expect NOAA is going to highlight one of there own (ex) chiefs like Dr John Bates who blew the whistle on NOAA, of course not, so is Mr Bates not a creditable witness now :) One just can't brush details like this aside because of the info source.

So is Mr Bates now not creditable being an ex NOAA data chief?

Might want to read more than Republican press release. Try this

http://www.factcheck.org/2017/02/no-data-manipulation-at-noaa/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on May 09, 2017, 06:21:06 PM
Here is some tempurature info from the last 100+ years for the USA
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 09, 2017, 09:46:59 PM
interesting article link Hankster
the take home message is other studies, eg by the UK Met office, using different data sets, comes to the same conclusions as the noaa studies that mattk has an issue with
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 09, 2017, 09:49:19 PM
this sums it up, re the link above:
Quote
To top it off, Karl and his co-authors point out that “it is also clear that the long-term trend would be significantly higher … without corrections” to the raw data. In other words, compared with the raw data, the adjusted data show less warming over the long-term.
Why? Because ocean surface temperature data greatly impacts the overall global warming trend and a lot of 20th century ocean data comes from ships, which are systematically too warm. As a result, scientists have to actually adjust the long-term trend downward to accommodate for this bias.
As Hausfather said when we spoke to him over the phone, “If scientists are cooking the books, they’re cooking them in the wrong direction.”
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 10, 2017, 09:40:39 AM
Read this: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

Obviously it is going to take you some time, but you might get a better idea. I read it all and even helped creating it. I dare to say I have a lot more information and Ive read articles about the data manipulation as well and I know about it, but based on everything I know Im very clear about what I believe.

Thank you, Jáchym, for your well-written, evidence-based posts. As a practicing ecologist working in a peer-reviewed world, I appreciate your work and how you came to understand the nature of the problem. I also appreciate your willingness to try to transfer scientific knowledge in this public forum.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on May 10, 2017, 01:15:19 PM
The earliest East Pacific storm on record formed today, meet Adrian.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 10, 2017, 01:23:04 PM
Read this: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

Obviously it is going to take you some time, but you might get a better idea. I read it all and even helped creating it. I dare to say I have a lot more information and Ive read articles about the data manipulation as well and I know about it, but based on everything I know Im very clear about what I believe.

Thank you, Jáchym, for your well-written, evidence-based posts. As a practicing ecologist working in a peer-reviewed world, I appreciate your work and how you came to understand the nature of the problem. I also appreciate your willingness to try to transfer scientific knowledge in this public forum.

Thanks, I also enjoy this joint effort where thousands of people work together on something.

Im also aware of the fact that no matter what I post here, those who want to believe something different will still do so and no matter what you say they will try to find reasons why you are wrong no matter how absurd these reasons might be.

It is more like I can never resist posting something when I read something that I myself consider total **
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 10, 2017, 02:33:42 PM
re earliest east pacific cyclone, the south pacific has just had its strongest recorded late season cyclone (Cat 5, season ended last month), due to warmer than normal ocean temperatures right across the pacific ocean
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Dko on May 29, 2017, 03:51:50 AM
I know this is a very polarising argument, but what if the scientists are right? What if the effects are much worse than predicted? Will the deniers continue to deny? If the CO2 levels continue to rise, the permafrost melts and Methane joins in the party, and temperature rises accelerate? Is there a point where the deniers will say 'whoops, you were right', or will they continue to deny despite overwhelming evidence?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 29, 2017, 05:19:46 AM
I know this is a very polarising argument, but what if the scientists are right? What if the effects are much worse than predicted? Will the deniers continue to deny? If the CO2 levels continue to rise, the permafrost melts and Methane joins in the party, and temperature rises accelerate? Is there a point where the deniers will say 'whoops, you were right', or will they continue to deny despite overwhelming evidence?

Simple answer - no, they will look for counter arguments no matter how absurd they would be ;) Primarily because it would not be in their "economic" benefit.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Dko on May 29, 2017, 06:02:24 AM
I know you are right, they'll continue to concoct complex reasons why anthropogenic climate change doesn't exist, when the simple explanation will eventually be obvious and undeniable to any level-headed thinker. Climate change is real. We don't need thermometers to prove it, nature does that and will continue as glaciers melt, sea levels rise at accelerated rates and islands cease to be islands.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 29, 2017, 07:26:26 AM
The problem with deniers is their simplistic view of humanity and their us vs. them mentality. Everything is seen through their monochromatic lens of politics. When confronted with new facts that challenge or destroy their paradigm, they stay firmly wedded to their original beliefs.

The best test of scientific validity for the layman is Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is usually the correct explanation. So what's simpler: the idea that thousands of independent researchers worldwide, representing 95+% of the climate science field, are engaged in a conspiracy (or that they are all idiots), or that the right-wing echo chamber led primarily by one TV news network with an overriding political agenda is engaged in a conspiracy?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Dko on May 29, 2017, 08:26:33 AM
Rate of change is the killer. Similar temperatures have been seen in the past, but the rate of change currently being observed is unprecedented. It's quicker than the descent into the Younger Dryas and the exit from it. Natural cycles such as the Milankovic don't explain the acceleration of change without overlaying an increasing anthroprogenic component on top. Neither does the fact that we're still coming out of the last ice age. The rate of change we are seeing isn't natural based on the historic record.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 29, 2017, 01:23:56 PM
what he said  =D>
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 29, 2017, 03:02:49 PM
See post 401 above. Enough said!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: weatherc on May 29, 2017, 03:07:46 PM
I would say you guys forget one point, thanks god there are deniers and those who reads this stuffs critically. Else could the yes-side write whatever and all should "trust ist as truth". Any thing have (at least) 2 sides.
No, i'm not a denier, nor i'm on the yes-side either. Instead, things should lie on facts and real data, not guesses. Do we have that data? We just guess as we do not know better, yet.

Just FYI, The Arctic icecover what whole yes-side all the time says will melt away, are even at the moment almost at normal longtime extent, well inside its 2% standard deviations:
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
Sure, it may younger ice "than normal" but at least the extent are pretty normal.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 29, 2017, 03:30:42 PM
See post 401 above. Enough said!

I dont see why we should stop discussing this, if you are not interested just ignore this thread.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 29, 2017, 03:40:33 PM
re arctic ice extent
its still below normal
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

hopefully the deniers are willing to eat their hats in the future when it looks like the globe is not going to follow what would be expected by normal patterns, i.e just keeps on a warming trend

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 30, 2017, 07:05:58 AM
I would say you guys forget one point, thanks god there are deniers and those who reads this stuffs critically. Else could the yes-side write whatever and all should "trust ist as truth". Any thing have (at least) 2 sides.
No, i'm not a denier, nor i'm on the yes-side either. Instead, things should lie on facts and real data, not guesses. Do we have that data? We just guess as we do not know better, yet.

Just FYI, The Arctic icecover what whole yes-side all the time says will melt away, are even at the moment almost at normal longtime extent, well inside its 2% standard deviations:
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
Sure, it may younger ice "than normal" but at least the extent are pretty normal.

Respectfully, this is denial wearing a snazzy jacket.

Science, by its very nature, is rooted in skepticism. Somehow, non-scientists have the idea that scientists pick their desired conclusions and then go out hunting for data to back it up. Which, in fact, is how denialism works.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 30, 2017, 01:29:52 PM
I would say you guys forget one point, thanks god there are deniers and those who reads this stuffs critically. Else could the yes-side write whatever and all should "trust ist as truth". Any thing have (at least) 2 sides.
No, i'm not a denier, nor i'm on the yes-side either. Instead, things should lie on facts and real data, not guesses. Do we have that data? We just guess as we do not know better, yet.

Just FYI, The Arctic icecover what whole yes-side all the time says will melt away, are even at the moment almost at normal longtime extent, well inside its 2% standard deviations:
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
Sure, it may younger ice "than normal" but at least the extent are pretty normal.

Respectfully, this is denial wearing a snazzy jacket.

Science, by its very nature, is rooted in skepticism. Somehow, non-scientists have the idea that scientists pick their desired conclusions and then go out hunting for data to back it up. Which, in fact, is how denialism works.

What you have here is a lack of trust...Once this topic became politically/economically motivated, all bets were off. I think so-called non-scientists believe that some scientists are in it for themselves either to make headlines and/or become seemingly important above all others. As I stated before, unless each person is trained and qualified to test/validate/compile data correctly AND accurately, they will not understand nor accept the findings done by either side of this debate.... Being skeptical as stated above is not really a bad thing. Keeps people honest (hopefully).
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 30, 2017, 02:18:05 PM
thats the thing
the majority of climate scientists will not polliticly or economicly biased etc
as remember there are many countries studying this, not just the USA

its a common theme today, because of google, for people to make their own "informed decisions"
and not trust the professionals/experts anymore
over a wide range of things (e.g immunisation)
I was  skeptical once of global warming once...but that was like 15 years ago..but factual evidence (both measured (e.g satellites even) and what is happening in nature itself (plants, etc) has changed my mind now
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 30, 2017, 02:21:17 PM
thats the thing
the majority of climate scientists will not polliticly or economicly biased etc
as remember there are many countries studying this, not just the USA

its a common theme today, because of google, for people to make their own "informed decisions"
and not trust the professionals/experts anymore
over a wide range of things (e.g immunisation)
I was  skeptical once of global warming once...but that was like 15 years ago..but factual evidence (both measured (e.g satellites even) and what is happening in nature itself (plants, etc) has changed my mind now

Devils advocate here..... You know that these climate "experts" don't have an agenda? only they themselves know...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 30, 2017, 03:17:34 PM
so you don't trust any experts in their field?
people who have a degree in the science of that field?
people who follow the scientific basis (incuding getting peer review) for coming to conclusions?

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 30, 2017, 03:57:01 PM
Don't shoot the messenger....

All I am saying that the flurry of accusations between both sides include such things as "being an expert" within a field of study... Anyone can claim to be an expert until proven otherwise....

That's all...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 30, 2017, 05:01:13 PM
so you don't trust any experts in their field?
people who have a degree in the science of that field?
people who follow the scientific basis (incuding getting peer review) for coming to conclusions?

So how does one guarantee they do in fact have it right?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 30, 2017, 05:26:08 PM
if you have a degree in climatology and that is your specialist field then I think you can claim to be an expert
if you do not then agree with those persons (and their peers around the world) , then that is your choice I guess
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 30, 2017, 05:34:31 PM
Quote
So how does one guarantee they do in fact have it right?
scientists like to have checks and balances
i.e to make sure theories are repeatable (results)

-> the climate models predictions are coming true from years ago
which means the initial assumptions were correct
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 30, 2017, 05:45:26 PM
and if you roll the dice long enough, you will roll snakes eyes too.... :roll:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 30, 2017, 05:45:43 PM
Just like in any other field, you sort of assume that those who study it and dedicate most of their work time to this topic will know most. And this is of course not just climate or meteorology. When you are sick you go to the doctor and also trust them because they are the experts in the field. Of course you will never have a situation where all experts are 100% correct all the time, no, this is an idealized situation, we all know that. But it is the best you can do and is all about probability. When you fly in a plane you trust the pilots because they know how to fly it, of course we see that sometimes they fail, but it is still better than if you tried (unless you are a pilot of course :D)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 30, 2017, 05:55:48 PM
We don't need no stinking experts  :grin:

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]


Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 30, 2017, 05:58:38 PM
Last 30 years, due to the spread of the Internet, has been a true revolution in the way we get information.

Even just a few decades ago, people were always desperately trying to find information they needed, often without success. Now? Now we are in a paradox where it is the other way around. We live in information overload. All of use have Internet either in our pockets or somewhere close and we can basically find information to almost everything we need immediately. The problem becomes filtering out the important from the unimportant and the correct from incorrect. I have a friend who is a doctor and he told me sometimes it is a nightmare because we all now look it up if we have some health problem and he said some people just come there and basically tell him what problems they have, what he should prescribe them etc etc and wont even listen to what he says...

This is also associated with specialization and that is what I said in my last post. 500 yrs ago you had "scientists". 100 yrs ago you had "biologists, chemists, physicists etc.". 25 yrs ago you had geneticisists, molecular biologists etc. Now you have molecular biologists with specialization on eg. telomeres.... and similarly with the climate. You will find thousands of articles, but it is hard to decide which can be trusted and which not and so one should trust those who do primary research and spend most of their life studying this subject. Everyone is an expert in something, no-one is an expert in everything.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 30, 2017, 06:03:24 PM
Last 30 years, due to the spread of the Internet, has been a true revolution in the way we get information.
...
 Everyone is an expert in something, no-one is an expert in everything.

Wrong. Al Gore believes he is an expert in everything, including climate change!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 30, 2017, 06:08:22 PM
only deniers quote Al Gore

you need to move on from him

he did a good job though of waking people up to the problem (and he did that in way where people would start to take notice)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 30, 2017, 06:10:17 PM
Denier alert!

Gore never claimed to be the expert. He learned from the experts and believed that he could use his political foundation to spread the word. Successfully, I might add.

But anyway....

With today's leadership, are you really going to go there?


Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 30, 2017, 06:13:54 PM
Denier alert!

Gore never claimed to be the expert. He learned from the experts and believed that he could use his political foundation to spread the word. Successfully, I might add.

But anyway....

With today's leadership, are you really going to go there?

You probably aren't old enough but when I was in grade school, we were told the ice age was coming, yes seriously. These scare tactics are like the flavor of the year, decade, whatever!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 30, 2017, 06:17:55 PM
Cool, so were you only taught things that were most likely not correct due to much less scientific advancements back then or did you just choose one particular situation that suits your argument? I was taught many things about climate change 15 yrs ago and what is going to happen in the upcoming years - it was spot on.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 30, 2017, 06:32:45 PM
and only deniers talk about the 70s and that scientists thought we were heading to an ice age
you can read up about that , that was taken out of context by what a couple of scientists said at the time
you need to come up something better than Al Gore and the 70's ice age predictions
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 30, 2017, 06:53:16 PM
Denier alert!

Gore never claimed to be the expert. He learned from the experts and believed that he could use his political foundation to spread the word. Successfully, I might add.

But anyway....

With today's leadership, are you really going to go there?

You probably aren't old enough but when I was in grade school, we were told the ice age was coming, yes seriously. These scare tactics are like the flavor of the year, decade, whatever!

I remember duck and cover. But the nuns never taught us about an impending ice age. They did teach us that birds have rubber pads on their feet to insulate them from power lines, and also that if you tie an extension cord into a knot, it will explode. Seriously.

So, I've been a skeptic since I was a schoolboy.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on May 30, 2017, 07:04:07 PM
Denier alert!

Gore never claimed to be the expert. He learned from the experts and believed that he could use his political foundation to spread the word. Successfully, I might add.

But anyway....

With today's leadership, are you really going to go there?

You probably aren't old enough but when I was in grade school, we were told the ice age was coming, yes seriously. These scare tactics are like the flavor of the year, decade, whatever!
They did teach us that birds have rubber pads on their feet to insulate them from power lines, and also that if you tie an extension cord into a knot, it will explode. Seriously.
:lol: I "get" the rubber feet part, but the extension cord??? :?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 30, 2017, 07:23:22 PM
Apparently, they believed that tying a knot in a cord would cause the electricity to back up and BAM. I think that was in 3rd grade. As a kid, once you realize that your teachers are pushing myths, you question everything.

My elementary school, run by Catholic nuns, was more focused on quality torture than quality science. Seriously, they were sadists.

They did turn us into excellent students, though, as we soon learned that getting good grades kept you off of their radar. You did not want to ever be the center of attention.

They made excellent students, but neurotic students. I've never been able to escape it. As an undergrad, it was easy to do 20+ hours/week in organic and p-chem while the rest of my compatriots partied and then suffered mightily while cramming. I never had to study for finals because I was always current and often ahead of the learning curve. I always had that fear that Sister Martin Mary was standing over my shoulder with a ruler, ready to rumble. :evil:

Anyway, we're not here to give Halifax therapy, so onward!





Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 30, 2017, 09:05:59 PM
And I always thought zero emissions was a dream, still do, but one state just had to prove the point didn't they, closed all their coal fired stations down due to the climate change crowd, up'ed the anti with wind, solar and interconnector reliance from other states and then poof .... zero emissions, the turbines failed and shutdown to protect themselves from high wind speeds, solar useless with no sun and the wind's blew the interconnector power lines flat on the ground, so yes zero emissions is possible :) it's the same as having absolutely no power for anything. 1.7m people totally in the dark without power.

Honestly it is approaches like this that prove some have completely lost the plot over this climate change stuff   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 30, 2017, 09:29:00 PM
This was a one-time event in the EU (Germany) that happened back in 2012. They have upgraded interconnections between grids to counter this. Gas and hydro are huge there. Right-wing barf rags like the Daily Caller cherry pick that event and ignore everything that has been done to ameliorate the likelihood of it happening again. Also note that Germany is being honest with itself - they know the risk, and understand that risk is a catalyst for technological advancement. This is visionary stuff, in contrast to critics who look back to the Dark Ages for their inspiration.

There is a learning curve with any new technology. Supporting archaic technologies that have been soundly defeated in the energy markets makes no sense. Supporting a technology that that blows the tops off of mountains and fills in/contaminates the streams and rivers and groundwaters with toxic acid drainage is a rather stunning opinion. And black lung, too ... let's fix that by pulling their health care. Apparently, you don't live in Appalachian coal country.

Back to the Holocene!


Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 30, 2017, 10:06:32 PM
NO this one occurred in September 2016 and if it has occurred before then obviously nobody has been paying any attention or learnt anything from previous failures, have they, some just continue on their own merry way blindly ignoring the warnings. Doesn't matter the technology it is simply super stupid to totally rely on third party providers but some will (have) put all their eggs in the one basket with this climate change craze and rather over stated targets       
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 30, 2017, 10:22:24 PM
Climate change is a topic that will never change any minds. Those that believe it is a hoax will never believe any study that concludes otherwise. And those that believe climate change is a very serious issue will never believe any evidence or conclusion to prove otherwise. No one will ever change a perspective from the "correct one" so bottom line? We are wasting WXForum space to try and change perspectives but we are having fun none the less! Maybe we should beat another dead horse like guessing or wishing, like we have for years in this Forum, whether or when Davis will release a replacement to its aging Vantage Pro 2 product line!

My post, above (#401), from 3 weeks ago. Have we changed any minds yet? Mine hasn't, has yours?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 30, 2017, 10:35:09 PM
yes, the die hard deniers on this thread are never going to admit they are wrong no matter how much the climate keeps on warming

re the power cord knot:
there is some truth in that
e.g if you have a coiled extension cord and use it like that, it act like a transformer coil and heat up etc
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 31, 2017, 08:35:38 AM
And the same holds true for the other side.... :roll:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 31, 2017, 08:38:45 AM
Climate change is a topic that will never change any minds. Those that believe it is a hoax will never believe any study that concludes otherwise. And those that believe climate change is a very serious issue will never believe any evidence or conclusion to prove otherwise. No one will ever change a perspective from the "correct one" so bottom line? We are wasting WXForum space to try and change perspectives but we are having fun none the less! Maybe we should beat another dead horse like guessing or wishing, like we have for years in this Forum, whether or when Davis will release a replacement to its aging Vantage Pro 2 product line!

My post, above (#401), from 3 weeks ago. Have we changed any minds yet? Mine hasn't, has yours?

And your post above - http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=28265.msg324634#msg324634

OK, we know you are not interested in discussing this, no need to repeat yourself several times, just ignore this thread, no-one forces you to read it. But dont tell people to stop discussing something that is not off-topic and does not violate rules of this forum. This is a forum - i.e. people discuss things.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: halifax on May 31, 2017, 08:46:13 AM
NO this one occurred in September 2016 and if it has occurred before then obviously nobody has been paying any attention or learnt anything from previous failures, have they, some just continue on their own merry way blindly ignoring the warnings. Doesn't matter the technology it is simply super stupid to totally rely on third party providers but some will (have) put all their eggs in the one basket with this climate change craze and rather over stated targets     

This challenges that:

https://cleantechnica.com/2015/10/09/german-outages-12-minutes-per-customeryear/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 31, 2017, 08:47:32 AM
Jáchym,
  I think the issue now is not the debate about Climate Change/Global warming...Its become a war on who can get the last word in because we all know that whoever speaks last......Back to the preverbal "pissing" contest.....

 :-)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 31, 2017, 09:11:52 AM
It also includes some useful links. I dont see why we should stop discussing it. Solution for those who don´t want to read this is just so simple... ignore this thread...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 31, 2017, 10:30:52 AM
And here's the irony in that...For those who don't believe should just leave. Therefore the audience that needs to hear it won't so what ever else needs to be said...no on will be listening... 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 31, 2017, 10:35:06 AM
Quote
For those who don't believe should just leave

Show me where I said that.

I said that those who do not want to read this should leave. It was not me who said we should stop discussing this topic. I just said that no-one should be telling me or anyone else to stop discussing something that is to the point, does not violate any forum rules. This is what this forum is for. There are many threads on this forum that Im also not interested in, but rather than posting there "stop talking about this" I just ignore them ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 31, 2017, 10:42:27 AM
Whoa ease up..... :roll:... wasn't quoting you or anyone directly....

 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 31, 2017, 03:19:07 PM
Quote
And the same holds true for the other side....
yes
but I find it hard to know how deniers can argue that the climate is not warming
or is that the deniers will admit the climate is warming, but its a natural cycle and not due to increased CO2/green house gases?
(and then if so do they argue that there is no way to know its  due to increased CO2...but what if it actually is?)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: weatherc on May 31, 2017, 03:34:42 PM
Well done Trumph/US, NOT.
https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-is-pulling-u-s-out-of-paris-climate-deal-2427773025.html
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 31, 2017, 04:30:08 PM
Again, premature and fake news..... While he is definitely deciding to withdraw, there has been no official news about this yet. There is a showdown within his administration over this..... Will cooler heads prevail?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 31, 2017, 04:48:08 PM
why would it be fake news when this has been his intention all along (and what he campaigned on)?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 31, 2017, 04:59:26 PM
 #-o
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 31, 2017, 05:10:35 PM
NO this one occurred in September 2016 and if it has occurred before then obviously nobody has been paying any attention or learnt anything from previous failures, have they, some just continue on their own merry way blindly ignoring the warnings. Doesn't matter the technology it is simply super stupid to totally rely on third party providers but some will (have) put all their eggs in the one basket with this climate change craze and rather over stated targets     

This challenges that:

https://cleantechnica.com/2015/10/09/german-outages-12-minutes-per-customeryear/

Challenges what?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 31, 2017, 06:45:19 PM
why would it be fake news when this has been his intention all along (and what he campaigned on)?

Well... thats true, but he had many other intentions and only now found out it is not that easy and despite being the president he cant do whatever he wants, lets just hope same things goes for this ;)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 31, 2017, 07:17:53 PM
Well someone has to get rid of those tax payer funded over-subsidized wind generators, take away the subsidies and wind farms will be dead, people living near these things would say sooner the better. Wind energy is nothing more than another scam in the overall things with climate change. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 31, 2017, 07:43:22 PM
I totally agree that alternative energy is CURRENTLY more expensive compared to fossil fuels. The problem is that if you keep on using it, sooner or later you will run out and have to switch to renewables anyway and the later you do this, the more expensive this will be, so in long term, moving towards renewables now saves you money in long term - but again, if people only care about themselves NOW, it is hard to argue about this.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 31, 2017, 07:58:55 PM
Here you have a nice summary with sources included as well:

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/energyrevolution/renewable-energy-myths/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 31, 2017, 08:35:37 PM
Well someone has to get rid of those tax payer funded over-subsidized wind generators, take away the subsidies and wind farms will be dead, people living near these things would say sooner the better. Wind energy is nothing more than another scam in the overall things with climate change.

But if we did away with wind farms, thousands of birds would be saved each year! We need another government boon doogle to kill a similar number of birds so the world doesn't have an over abundance of birds!   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 31, 2017, 08:47:21 PM
Well someone has to get rid of those tax payer funded over-subsidized wind generators, take away the subsidies and wind farms will be dead, people living near these things would say sooner the better. Wind energy is nothing more than another scam in the overall things with climate change.

But if we did away with wind farms, thousands of birds would be saved each year! We need another government boon doogle to kill a similar number of birds so the world doesn't have an over abundance of birds!

As if no birds and other organisms were killed or harmed by the many oil spills in the past.... and that number of birds killed by wind generators is nowhere near that.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 31, 2017, 09:36:53 PM
Well someone has to get rid of those tax payer funded over-subsidized wind generators, take away the subsidies and wind farms will be dead, people living near these things would say sooner the better. Wind energy is nothing more than another scam in the overall things with climate change.

But if we did away with wind farms, thousands of birds would be saved each year! We need another government boon doogle to kill a similar number of birds so the world doesn't have an over abundance of birds!



As if no birds and other organisms were killed or harmed by the many oil spills in the past.... and that number of birds killed by wind generators is nowhere near that.

And your source for your statement? (I might suggest Al Gore, but that would trigger another set of posts, so I won't do that). Also, the oil spills were accidents but the wind farms causing bird deaths are not accidents--it is inherent in the structure of that technology.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 31, 2017, 09:43:51 PM
Then if wind generators can stand on their own piles without any tax payer subsidies then so be it, governments should immediately stop subsidizing them. I can already hear the hue n cry but no point claiming they don't need subsidies until the subsidies are zero.   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on May 31, 2017, 09:45:43 PM
Oil spills wiped out entire habitats, plus there are now technologies that substantially reduce or even eliminate the bird issue
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: WheatonRon on May 31, 2017, 10:01:59 PM
Oil spills wiped out entire habitats, plus there are now technologies that substantially reduce or even eliminate the bird issue

How do you keep birds from flying into the turbines? Make them walk on the ground underneath them, put nets around the blades? Seriously, inform us weather folks what technology elminates birds from flying into the blades. As we say (at least in the USA), operators are standing by for your response.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on May 31, 2017, 10:53:20 PM
Then if wind generators can stand on their own piles without any tax payer subsidies then so be it, governments should immediately stop subsidizing them. I can already hear the hue n cry but no point claiming they don't need subsidies until the subsidies are zero.   
You do know that conventional energy production is heavily subsidized don't you?

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on May 31, 2017, 11:12:03 PM
Oil spills wiped out entire habitats, plus there are now technologies that substantially reduce or even eliminate the bird issue

How do you keep birds from flying into the turbines? Make them walk on the ground underneath them, put nets around the blades? Seriously, inform us weather folks what technology elminates birds from flying into the blades. As we say (at least in the USA), operators are standing by for your response.

Wind turbines kill between 214,000 and 368,000 birds annually — a small fraction compared with the estimated 6.8 million fatalities from collisions with cell and radio towers and the 1.4 billion to 3.7 billion deaths from cats, according to the peer-reviewed study by two federal scientists and the environmental consulting firm West Inc.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/15/wind-turbines-kill-fewer-birds-than-cell-towers-cats/15683843/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 31, 2017, 11:40:27 PM
Then if wind generators can stand on their own piles without any tax payer subsidies then so be it, governments should immediately stop subsidizing them. I can already hear the hue n cry but no point claiming they don't need subsidies until the subsidies are zero.   
You do know that conventional energy production is heavily subsidized don't you?

Your heavily subsidized claim is rather over hyped. Much of the subsidy stuff is that mandated by gov on the power user to cover what is "given" to the renewables. Typical subsidy (mainly paid to coal mining) is $130m, Solar $2,002m, wind $388m (infant stage) or in real terms $0.86/MWh for coal fired, $412/MWh for solar, $42/MWh (but increasing) for wind. Conventional energy production is heavily subsidized is rubbish, in this country conventional gets $0.70/MWh and Renewables get $76/MWh.

I say cut all subsidies all together, no more handouts for minimal input
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 01, 2017, 05:40:12 AM
Then if wind generators can stand on their own piles without any tax payer subsidies then so be it, governments should immediately stop subsidizing them. I can already hear the hue n cry but no point claiming they don't need subsidies until the subsidies are zero.   

Im of course not American, but let´s pretend I am.
I understand you might not like the fact you are in a way also paying for this. However! If I were American, I would also be paying billions towards things I dont like...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/12/us-taxpayers-subsidising-worlds-biggest-fossil-fuel-companies
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on June 01, 2017, 05:51:50 AM
Then if wind generators can stand on their own piles without any tax payer subsidies then so be it, governments should immediately stop subsidizing them. I can already hear the hue n cry but no point claiming they don't need subsidies until the subsidies are zero.   

Im of course not American, but let´s pretend I am.
I understand you might not like the fact you are in a way also paying for this. However! If I were American, I would also be paying billions towards things I dont like...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/12/us-taxpayers-subsidising-worlds-biggest-fossil-fuel-companies

Not being American leaves me out but then Trump will fix that for you :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 01, 2017, 06:10:53 AM
First of all, Trump already realized that all he promised is obviously not going to happen, his power is not resolute in all cases.

Second, even if the U.S. withdraws from the Paris agreement it is not going to be the end of the world, globally U.S. is just one of the larger countries, not something that everyone depends on.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: gillesroszak on June 01, 2017, 06:27:49 AM
And they account for only 15% of global releases. If the remaining 85% work in the right direction the improvement will be noticeable
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on June 01, 2017, 08:50:13 AM
I hope the hell we withdraw from from the Paris agreement. It was done by an Obama executive order without going through congress so needs to go away.
Look at how the rest of the world lives up to these so called agreements. They don't... Just take the Nato agreement 23 of 28 countries don't pay their agreed upon share including the richest country in Europe.... Germany. 

The USA can still make their obligation of cutting emissions agreed upon by the Paris agreement without cutting a check for billions. This was just another bad deal we got stuck into by the last administration pushing the far left globalism agenda.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on June 01, 2017, 09:21:48 AM
I am for that if the US still takes strides in cutting emissions and further enhancements in energy alternatives.  EU doesn't like it now because they now have to cough up their share of the burden which is what they originally signed on to do anyway. The $75 billion that was being written to support the EU share of the bargain can now be used here to clean up our own backyard...and still reduce emissions.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on June 01, 2017, 10:17:14 AM
I am for that if the US still takes strides in cutting emissions and further enhancements in energy alternatives.  EU doesn't like it now because they now have to cough up their share of the burden which is what they originally signed on to do anyway. The $75 billion that was being written to support the EU share of the bargain can now be used here to clean up our own backyard...and still reduce emissions.

Yes I absolutely agree, this is substance instead of providing links to a narrative.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 01, 2017, 01:41:35 PM
Quote
They don't... Just take the Nato agreement 23 of 28 countries don't pay their agreed upon share including the richest country in Europe.... Germany.

but that is fake news from Trump himself
that is not how Nato works
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on June 01, 2017, 02:10:57 PM
that's right. That's how NATO doesn't work.... Agreed upon is 2% GDP to be spent upon NATO missions/etc. There are those not meeting that requirement within NATO and thus the burden to compensate comes from the US and possibly other nations. All that was ask was those parties to start living up to their end of the agreement and pay their share. They are not being asked to pay above the 2% level, just meet that level as signed to.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 01, 2017, 03:23:53 PM
the rest of the world is looking at each other for support now, with the USA being left out on its own more and more now, under Trump's america first (I have no problem with what a country decides to do for its own country)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 01, 2017, 03:42:03 PM
not long to go now
https://www.wunderground.com/news/larsen-c-crack-iceberg-global-warming?__prclt=hhC9hy63
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 01, 2017, 03:50:06 PM
and its official, USA has pulled out of the Paris agreement (which the rest of the world signed up to)

global warming will carry on anyway

it might be a good thing, as other countries will be spurred to do more (and states within the USA might be spurred on to do more as well, e.g California)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bushman on June 01, 2017, 05:09:10 PM
China will carry the ball for the US.  Too funny.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 01, 2017, 05:13:21 PM
yes, other countries in the world are taking up more leadership roles in allot of things
as the USA is becoming less and less of a world leader in allot of areas now (under the USA first rule)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on June 01, 2017, 05:14:27 PM
Might be a few climate scientists worrying about their funding now?   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on June 01, 2017, 05:16:48 PM
Regard the US it's interesting that Obama signed up the US without any ratification, which some agreed with but now Trump has un-signed the agreement without ratification those same people are calling fowl, interesting double standards being applied by some.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 01, 2017, 05:20:13 PM
Quote
Might be a few climate scientists worrying about their funding now?
but its a global problem
so there are plenty of climate scientists around the world who will be picking up the slack (and who do not rely on grants etc) and carrying on the research
remember that the USA is not the world
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on June 01, 2017, 05:29:02 PM
Then the USA pulling out should be no big deal? 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 01, 2017, 05:37:08 PM
you could say not really in the long run
as other countries are going to benefit in leadership in renewable energy (which will create jobs etc) (which the USA could lose out on )

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on June 01, 2017, 05:49:24 PM
you could say not really in the long run
as other countries are going to benefit in leadership in renewable energy (which will create jobs etc) (which the USA could lose out on )

Starting to sound more like a climate scientist, that's nothing more than speculation.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 01, 2017, 05:52:40 PM
I completely agree, U.S. is gradually losing its significance in general. It is only a matter of months/years before China will become world's number 1 economy, the population is also quite insignificant globally and so if U.S. refuses to co-operate with the rest of the world it is not the world's loss... ;) Im also glad Trump did this because things now will be much easier and in the end it will not be our loss. Fight against GW is not dependent on one of the 200+ states
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on June 01, 2017, 05:56:29 PM
It's interesting watching some of the countries in this so called Paris agreement, like Australia that are happy to grant gas exports for a few miserable $$'s in royalty yet totally turn a blind eye to the fracking and contamination of ground water yet some call the result Natural Gas, there is absolutely nothing natural about natural gas yet some push this as the saviour of the energy industry, double standards all over this one.

No wonder people have had enough of the crap, gas shortage in Australia, yet paying twice the price locally for the same gas that is shipped into Japan.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on June 01, 2017, 06:10:37 PM
This is so comical.....Those who were sooooo upset with Trump/US leaving the accord are now relieved and saying how insignificant the US is/will be and how easy things will be without the US involved.. I give 6 months for THAT turn-around to occur.....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on June 01, 2017, 06:21:39 PM
Yea I agree. First thought popped into my mind was...yea, I could just see North Korea peaking out their blinds about now & seeing those black dots just off shore & saying, ah they have no significance anymore.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 01, 2017, 06:48:44 PM
It would of course be ideal if U.S. supported it as well. No doubt about that, however rather than being part of it and arguing about everything it is better if it is not part of it at all.

Over 95% of world's countries signed the Paris treaty. One thing to keep in mind is that not a single country in the world is even close to a situation where it could afford to go against the rest of the world in the long term in terms of its economy, population, land area etc. Both U.S. and Europe are getting less and less significant, no matter whether we like it or not. India's population increases by 16 million every year, in some countries every woman has on average 7 kids, so the population distribution is changing rapidly and these countries are no longer so under-developed, in fact quite the opposite in some cases. As I mentioned above, this is a problem of Europe as well, but it means we should even more try to co-operate with each other.

Back to my original point, I am not contradicting myself. I still say it would be great if the U.S. was in, but if this would mean only problems then better if it leaves.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on June 01, 2017, 06:53:32 PM
Maybe the best thing to concentrate on then is the population growth, which is in fact becoming unsupportable
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 01, 2017, 06:55:34 PM
That is indeed a major problem as well, but all these global problems like population growth, global warming etc. are very closely related.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on June 01, 2017, 07:04:22 PM
That is indeed a major problem as well, but all these global problems like population growth, global warming etc. are very closely related.
Hot temps make people hot?  :-k
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on June 01, 2017, 07:07:49 PM
So maybe the Australians then shouldn't be approving Adani's mega mine development so coal can be shipped back to India, to feed coal fired plants to meet this ever growing population growth and demand with Adani even expecting a multi year royalty holiday for the privilege. Amazing what some countries will do for a bit of royalty(eventually) yet state they are committed to climate change, more double standards     
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 01, 2017, 07:08:33 PM
....

Some parts of the world actually get colder, but thats places like Antarctica. In contrast, there is absolutely no doubt that desertification is a serious problem and rising sea level as well. Water shortage is currently the number one risk factor for a third world war in the future.

As population grows and the conditions in many of these very populated countries get worse and worse and they become more and more inhabitable, these people will obviously move to countries like the U.S. and Europe. In the end we can already see it today. You would be very naive if you thought that some wall will solve this problem in long term. Of course it will not. If the situation gets really bad and people are desperate, they would do anything. The most extreme situation is declaring a war, but given the current trends in population growth, economic growth etc., declaring a war on some of these countries in a few decades would equal commiting a suicide
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 01, 2017, 07:14:43 PM
Some of you probably dont fully realize the severity of this and how powerful some of these countries already are.

Just a few interesting facts:
- there is 3 times more Chinese native speakers than English native speakers.
- the amount of all the concrete used by the U.S. in the entire 20th century + the first decade of 2000s is equal to the amount China used between 2000 and 2012...

and I could continue

And the reason I talk about this is because GW will make this even worse for the reasons I mentioned above and also because it really is important countries try to co-operate, not act purely in their own economic (short-term) benefit
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: BigOkie on June 02, 2017, 10:41:07 AM
Then if wind generators can stand on their own piles without any tax payer subsidies then so be it, governments should immediately stop subsidizing them. I can already hear the hue n cry but no point claiming they don't need subsidies until the subsidies are zero.   
You do know that conventional energy production is heavily subsidized don't you?

As a resident of Oklahoma I know this to be a fact.  The tax breaks the O&G companies get in this state is bordering on criminal.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bushman on June 02, 2017, 11:19:29 AM
Isn't everything subsidized in one way or another?  As for OK, well the O&G industry  serves up 2.5 Billion (that's a "B") in direct and indirect taxes to the state economy:  it is the largest single contributor.  And there are the billions of capital projects with generate tens of thousands of direct jobs (also taxed) and a couple hundred thousand indirect jobs.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on June 02, 2017, 04:32:22 PM
You taking info from the Oklahoma State Chamber Research Foundation report? That reports counts as taxes the payments for leased land, income taxes that employees pays, FICA payments, sales taxes on supplies and much more.

If you go by the  NAICS code for O&G related activities it shows that they paid $43.5 million worth of actual corporate income tax in 2013, $44.8 million in 2014 and $4 million in 2015. In 2015 78 percent of the O&G companies filing corporate income tax returns paid no tax

In OK the effective tax rate on oil was just 3.0 percent in FY 2016 compared to 6.4 percent in FY 2012, while the effective rate on natural gas fell to 3.4 percent from 6.1 percent. In TX the rate is 8.3%, in LA it is 13.3%. In neither of those states are companies leaving because of the higher effective tax rate.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 02, 2017, 10:18:16 PM
Quote
Renwick says a key issue for scientists - and one that's hard to communicate with laypeople - is that yes, the climate is constantly changing, and yes, there are other causes at play, but also that humans are amplifying the process.

"The big thing at the moment is that humanity has put a bunch of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, stuff that took millions of years to pull out of the atmosphere, so we are kind of winding the clock back thousands of times faster than natural changes.

"Normally the natural changes happen at a pace the earth can keep up with. Now we are changing things so fast it will take the oceans thousands of years to react."

...BUT YOU CAN'T MAKE HIM DRINK

Some sceptics will never be convinced - and the scientists say they may be best ignored.

"There are the extreme views where nothing you say makes any difference, and they'll just make up reasons to believe what they want to believe. That's what we find. And it's just pointless arguing with them," Mullan says.

Adds Renwick: "In the first instance, I think we ignore those people, unless we absolutely can't ignore them - like Donald Trump, for example. You start working with the people who you might be able to move."

Wilson points to Australian research that suggests even if sceptics can't be won over on the climate change debate, they can be brought around to helping make the world a better place - in turn, helping reduce carbon emissions.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: BigOkie on June 03, 2017, 09:37:52 AM
You taking info from the Oklahoma State Chamber Research Foundation report? That reports counts as taxes the payments for leased land, income taxes that employees pays, FICA payments, sales taxes on supplies and much more.

If you go by the  NAICS code for O&G related activities it shows that they paid $43.5 million worth of actual corporate income tax in 2013, $44.8 million in 2014 and $4 million in 2015. In 2015 78 percent of the O&G companies filing corporate income tax returns paid no tax

In OK the effective tax rate on oil was just 3.0 percent in FY 2016 compared to 6.4 percent in FY 2012, while the effective rate on natural gas fell to 3.4 percent from 6.1 percent. In TX the rate is 8.3%, in LA it is 13.3%. In neither of those states are companies leaving because of the higher effective tax rate.

And the problem is that our governor thought that slashing income taxes -- especially for those in the highest tax brackets -- would be a good idea.  Now we have an almost 1 billion dollar revenue shortfall...again (second fiscal year in a row) with lawmakers essentially having their heads in the sand on the issue.  There has been a push in Oklahoma for lawmakers to ask O&G companies to pay their fair share.  For all the talk conservatives have about wanting to do away with subsidies like Medicaid and Social Security, when they are subsidizing an entire industry they need to really shut their mouths about it.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on June 19, 2017, 04:49:01 AM
All I know it was a bad deal to pay billions to our competitors like (China) ( India) who does nothing for years but continues to open new coal fired power plants.
Its all about maybe 1/3 degree C in the long run according to experts if everyone meets the agreement which they already broke.  We are already closing coal fired plants in USA because of low natural gas prices, we don't need to destroy our economy going green. This was the correct decision by the Administration of the USA.
The climates going to change its natural and man isn't going to stop it despite what those on payroll scientist say. We can do what we can and I'm 100% behind green energy but have serious doubts it stopping anything unless we can somehow harness and control the sun energy.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bunty on June 19, 2017, 04:31:20 PM
You taking info from the Oklahoma State Chamber Research Foundation report? That reports counts as taxes the payments for leased land, income taxes that employees pays, FICA payments, sales taxes on supplies and much more.

If you go by the  NAICS code for O&G related activities it shows that they paid $43.5 million worth of actual corporate income tax in 2013, $44.8 million in 2014 and $4 million in 2015. In 2015 78 percent of the O&G companies filing corporate income tax returns paid no tax

In OK the effective tax rate on oil was just 3.0 percent in FY 2016 compared to 6.4 percent in FY 2012, while the effective rate on natural gas fell to 3.4 percent from 6.1 percent. In TX the rate is 8.3%, in LA it is 13.3%. In neither of those states are companies leaving because of the higher effective tax rate.

And the problem is that our governor thought that slashing income taxes -- especially for those in the highest tax brackets -- would be a good idea.  Now we have an almost 1 billion dollar revenue shortfall...again (second fiscal year in a row) with lawmakers essentially having their heads in the sand on the issue.  There has been a push in Oklahoma for lawmakers to ask O&G companies to pay their fair share.  For all the talk conservatives have about wanting to do away with subsidies like Medicaid and Social Security, when they are subsidizing an entire industry they need to really shut their mouths about it.

I will never forgive Gov. Fallin for telling legislators in 2016 that the income tax cuts were necessary so Oklahomans could have more money to spend in their pockets, and then this year she turned around and wanted to reach in everybody's pockets to collect new sales taxes on every kind of service imaginable.  What a two faced governor.  The legislature rejected her tax plan.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 19, 2017, 08:12:15 PM
Quote
All I know it was a bad deal to pay billions to our competitors like (China) ( India) who does nothing for years but continues to open new coal fired power plants.

really?

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on June 20, 2017, 08:29:42 AM
And https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/china-solar-energy/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on June 20, 2017, 11:04:41 AM
Just in case some of you still think this is an issue

https://theconversation.com/wind-farms-are-hardly-the-bird-slayers-theyre-made-out-to-be-heres-why-79567
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on June 20, 2017, 02:04:43 PM
I visited a wind farm
did not see one dead bird :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on July 08, 2017, 07:31:15 AM
Who remembers the 70', the prediction of the BIG Freeze, global cooling alarmism was the flavour of the day, the new ice age was coming, extreme weather events were signs of the man made pollution was blamed as the cause, the alarmists have apparently now done a full 180 and yes they were called "climate experts" back then as well :) 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on July 08, 2017, 07:56:24 AM
OK, fair enough. Now look at the data that was available, the number of stations available, the number of yrs of measurements and most importantly, have a look at the technology and the numerical models used to predict this. Look at the processing power of the computers/calculators used back then to predict this and compare with today, the difference is going to be many orders of magnitude. I hope you will at least agree with me on that, the level of knowledge and technology in the 70s and now is a bit different... If you look at what these models predicted around 2000 for today and compare it with actual situation now, they are spot on.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: hankster on July 08, 2017, 08:47:23 AM
Here is a good read on that subject.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bushman on July 08, 2017, 01:15:32 PM
Who remembers the 70', the prediction of the BIG Freeze, global cooling alarmism was the flavour of the day, the new ice age was coming, extreme weather events were signs of the man made pollution was blamed as the cause, the alarmists have apparently now done a full 180 and yes they were called "climate experts" back then as well :)

Yup!!  :)  And here in Western Canada we are breaking all sorts of heat records daily (some of which are over 110 years old!), and the climate change folks are saying - "See:  more proof that human activity is causing this!"  To that I say:  what about a hundred years ago?  Was that also human caused??  Cycles, people; these things go  in cycles.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: DoctorKnow on July 08, 2017, 01:20:55 PM

  Cycles, people; these things go  in cycles.

Exactly, but you can't get through to those with an agenda. I know one thing, it's nice now here in the USA to be able to look up and not see all those "trails" in the sky everyday.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on July 08, 2017, 02:47:32 PM
no one said the climate does not go in cycles
re the 100 years ago
you are missing the point
100 years ago there was still the odd outlier in extreme condtions
as there is now
but you have a Y offset now added to those outliers, ie the background warming trend, and so those original outliers (i.e when all the ducks are lined up with the weather pattern to break a record) are getting broken
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bushman on July 08, 2017, 04:16:38 PM
Cycles.  Like the Barrier reef die-off.  Human caused right?  Then explain the multiple times it has happened before.  Or desertification and regeneration.  Look - I am no  climate denier and am all for things like electric vehicles  and less pollution (although the two don't always go hand-in -hand...) but I kinda lose it when  we  are bombarded by those who either say do nothing and "burn baby burn"  (Rhymes with Drumpf) and those who play Chicken Little every time there is an adverse weather or climate event.  This stuff has been going on for thousands of millennia.  And will do so long after Kim blows up everything.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on July 08, 2017, 04:33:00 PM
and again no one has said that the corals have not died off before
the problem currently is the rate of change, nature is having  hard time adapting and catching up
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on July 08, 2017, 04:48:13 PM
and again no one has said that the corals have not died off before
the problem currently is the rate of change, nature is having  hard time adapting and catching up

I always missed the "thumbs up" smiley on this forum :D If there was one I would just post it now, thats exactly the problem, not the absolute values, the rate of change.

Analogy: I am 99% sure that if humans had millions of years to colonize Mars, we would over time get used to that environment without any need for any special suits etc. But if I just dropped you there now you probably wouldnt survive for very long...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on July 08, 2017, 07:37:21 PM
Well at least sheep have worked out a good use for wind turbines  =D> some very expensive shade that from something producing zero energy during the hottest part of the year

(https://i.redditmedia.com/hAhA-2avwi-OjtdRk70aZ3wZ77uaDuxgUmyaj-Xen4o.jpg?w=576&s=5939ad2ca9269a3ef737e9766a0c0327)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bushman on July 08, 2017, 08:20:35 PM
Cool (pun not intended!) picture!!  :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bushman on July 08, 2017, 08:23:03 PM
Recently I've been involved in replacing CFL and regular incandescent (and some std. fluorescent) bulbs in a large building.  I simply cannot believe the speed of payout and the associated reduction in electricity use, regardless of how that power was generated.  Trump could probably meet the USA Paris goals just by mandating LED bulbs. Of course they come at a cost, too.  Like solar panels.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on July 08, 2017, 08:31:21 PM
Regular bulbs were banned here in EU several yrs ago, you now have to use either LEDs or the energy saving ones.

With regards to wind power - wind power is just one type of renewable energy. If you install it in an appropriate location, it will be quite useful. If it is installed at inappropriate, i.e. calm location, then it is not a problem of wind power plants as such, but with the fact whoever decided this was an idiot :D

If you live in a hot, sunny and calm area, then a more appropriate could be eg. solar panels etc. It is also about efficient energy grids and the way this renewable energy is distributed.

But you cannot generalize this and say that wind power is useless. It is only useless if you install it in places where it shouldnt be installed.

Just like building a coal power plant in a place where coal is N/A and then saying that coal powerplants are useless because this fuelless one is not generating anything
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Bushman on July 08, 2017, 08:50:12 PM
Wind is transient.  Ergo, you need storage.  Lead acid batteries.  And guess where they come from?  Wind is fine for supplemntal but I think other than a few places it is a non-starter.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: DoctorKnow on July 08, 2017, 08:55:22 PM
I use the LED bulbs. They have dropped the light bill dramatically, and they put out better lighting. Win/Win!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jáchym on July 08, 2017, 09:17:31 PM
I am not naive, I know that in near future, renewables will not be able to fully replace other sources. In some locations yes, and there are also ways of storing the energy in an environment friendly way, nevertheless I know it will take long time before the efficiency and distribution mechanism allow us to fully use this. Until then I see nuclear power plants as temporary solution and maybe in not so far future all our problems will be solved thanks to tokamak
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: railrode1 on August 08, 2017, 11:28:02 AM
Maybe the best thing to concentrate on then is the population growth, which is in fact becoming unsupportable

Exactly... How many fish can fit in a bucket of water before they all suffocate. Population growth can contribute to "global warming". More resources are consumed by more people = more waste, and then most of them have 2+ offspring to roughly double the numbers. At some point, humans will need to limit population for the planet to sustain life...
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on April 20, 2018, 02:08:19 PM
We need rejuvenate this thread. Especially since this just might be the coldest spring EVER recorded for over 75% of the USA. A warming climate sounds nice now !!
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SLOweather on April 20, 2018, 02:43:11 PM
How 'bout if I change the Subject to "The Changing Climate"? :)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 20, 2018, 02:46:44 PM
but the USA is not the globe (i.e its global warming, i.e average of the whole globe)
and also more extremes in the climate/weather has been predicted (due to the jet stream getting stuck or displaced into different locations (e.g the polar vortex)
also the Arctic has had a warmer than normal winter and spring (because the cold air moved into Canada/USA instead)
so you need to look at the bigger picture, instead of what is happening in your location only
(other parts of the world have had their hottest summer just gone and warmest start to the year, to balance things out)
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on April 20, 2018, 03:28:40 PM
I absolutely agree with...

this other parts of the world have had their hottest summer just gone and warmest start to the year, to balance things out


Meanwhile, common sense tells me the above statement blows a big hole in any global warming, or global cooling theory, or narrative.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: tbrasel on April 20, 2018, 03:34:23 PM
I just wish for warmer weather, in my local area, so it does not offend anyone else  :roll:
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 20, 2018, 03:46:44 PM
check out
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png
to show that the colder than normal over North America is not a universal problem

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on April 21, 2018, 12:21:31 AM
you might like to view this web site
https://climate.nasa.gov/
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on April 21, 2018, 01:18:52 AM
The rorters are loving this mongering, closing down coal fired just to be subsidized for alternatives then being able to inflate power prices many fold, there is only one name for his and it's called greed, not a dam thing to do with anything else.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: CW2274 on May 29, 2018, 03:52:44 PM
A buddy sent me this today, thought I'd share. Careful with the volume, they put in annoying breaking glass sounds... :roll:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICGal_8qI8c
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 29, 2018, 04:19:29 PM
its not as simple as he is making out
he comes across as pseudo science...thinking if its sounds good, it must be true
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 29, 2018, 04:25:23 PM
This professor is talking about  falsehood of demonizing Co2. [youtube]https://youtu.be/4YMttEhtgpk[/youtube]
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 29, 2018, 04:30:01 PM
I stopped watching as soon as he nit picks about no experimental data etc
you can find all sorts of things like this guy on the internet and their views

Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 29, 2018, 05:53:13 PM
IN other words, you were afraid of possibly learning something new that conflicts with your views?
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 29, 2018, 06:25:56 PM
What needs to happen is that governments stop subsidizing alternative energy based on the excuse around so called global warming then we will see exactly who has been ripping off the system.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: waiukuweather on May 29, 2018, 07:13:34 PM
Quote
IN other words, you were afraid of possibly learning something new that conflicts with your views?
I knew someone would think that
no, I stopped when the angle of attack was wrong/irrelevant, and again, pseudo science , which people get sucked into
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: SoMDWx on May 29, 2018, 08:43:26 PM
Wrong to who? That's my point...neither side is willing to take the time to listen fully before coming to judgement...Peoples' minds are already made up well before they see/listen to anything remotely against their views....
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 29, 2018, 09:20:27 PM
The problem with the so called science is the currently unchecked policy replication that is sweeping through science, probably more so as what the so called scientists can achieve out of it funding wise, a scientist (well most of them anyway) will never turn on the hand that feeds them. However there are some real scientists out there that do in fact question the so call science as these real scientists look at both sides of the equation and are not depending on gov funding/handouts so can be truthful regard the overall situation.

Governments and especially organisations with an agenda have been caught out deliberately falsifying and simple telling lies re data they are trying to use to support climate change and no the numbers do not stack up so why do governments and associated organisations actually have to falsify, corrupt and remodel data in an attempt to prop up their own thinking and agenda?   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Jstx on May 29, 2018, 09:51:27 PM
What needs to happen is that governments stop subsidizing alternative energy based on the excuse around so called global warming then we will see exactly who has been ripping off the system.

Yeah, riiigght, here's just one documented energy subsidy comparison for a fairly recent seven year period. There are many others, but I only have so much time for 'enlightening' self-shielded 'deniers':

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_the_United_States#History

Quote
The federal government provided substantially larger subsidies to fossil fuels than to renewables in the 2002–2008 period. Subsidies to fossil fuels totaled approximately $72 billion over the study period, representing a direct cost to taxpayers. Subsidies for renewable fuels, totaled $29 billion over the same period.[21]
 
Reference # 21(above) has workable links to download the whole document (a pdf doc linked from the refs section of the Wiki link given): Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002–2008, Environmental Law Institute Archived January 17, 2013, at the Wayback Machine.

A direct refutation of your unsourced allegation of an "alternative energy" ripoff. Most of us know who's doing, and been doing, those ripoffs.

I've also seen reputable sources that place the total US Government subsidies (read: taxpayer money) to the fossil fuel industry, since the 1900's, the last 110 years, at many Trillions of dollars.
It's not called "Big Oil" for nothing, if you got Trillions in subsidies you'd be "Big Matt".

So in just that short period of that report, ~7 years, probably the peak 'alternative' timeframe too, "renewable fuels" got only 40% of the government subsidies to "fossil fuels" (compare those 110 years+ for fossil to the relatively short time for alternatives too, maybe twenty years?).

And remember, the nuclear power industry has also received Trillions of dollars of US government subsidies during it's existence.
These are also just direct subsidies, there are and have been many indirect ones too.

It's gonna take a long long time for the measly "alternative energy" subsidies/credits to equal that kind of government largess to the 'oilpatch welfare queens'.
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 29, 2018, 10:22:18 PM
What needs to happen is that governments stop subsidizing alternative energy based on the excuse around so called global warming then we will see exactly who has been ripping off the system.

Yeah, riiigght, here's just one documented energy subsidy comparison for a fairly recent seven year period. There are many others, but I only have so much time for 'enlightening' self-shielded 'deniers':

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_the_United_States#History

Quote
The federal government provided substantially larger subsidies to fossil fuels than to renewables in the 2002–2008 period. Subsidies to fossil fuels totaled approximately $72 billion over the study period, representing a direct cost to taxpayers. Subsidies for renewable fuels, totaled $29 billion over the same period.[21]
 
Reference # 21(above) has workable links to download the whole document (a pdf doc linked from the refs section of the Wiki link given): Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002–2008, Environmental Law Institute Archived January 17, 2013, at the Wayback Machine.

A direct refutation of your unsourced allegation of an "alternative energy" ripoff. Most of us know who's doing, and been doing, those ripoffs.

I've also seen reputable sources that place the total US Government subsidies (read: taxpayer money) to the fossil fuel industry, since the 1900's, the last 110 years, at many Trillions of dollars.
It's not called "Big Oil" for nothing, if you got Trillions in subsidies you'd be "Big Matt".

So in just that short period of that report, ~7 years, probably the peak 'alternative' timeframe too, "renewable fuels" got only 40% of the government subsidies to "fossil fuels" (compare those 110 years+ for fossil to the relatively short time for alternatives too, maybe twenty years?).

And remember, the nuclear power industry has also received Trillions of dollars of US government subsidies during it's existence.
These are also just direct subsidies, there are and have been many indirect ones too.

It's gonna take a long long time for the measly "alternative energy" subsidies/credits to equal that kind of government largess to the 'oilpatch welfare queens'.

The only document most are interested in is the bottom line of their power bill.

And since you are pouting "documents" as some credible evidence then most people are over the cash for comment policy replication brigade. What does highlight where a lot of this is going are universities sacking professors who do not pout the comments and agenda the university is pushing, in other words the right comment or no cash. Whatever answer you require I am sure you will find someone prepared to make it "reputable" as long as the cheque is in the mail.

Like even NOAA was caught dumb faced fiddling environment data and for what purpose, to bend the truth what else :)   
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 29, 2018, 10:57:06 PM


Like even NOAA was caught dumb faced fiddling environment data and for what purpose, to bend the truth what else :)   

Doing this at rural wx station instruments now.  The rural stations being unaffected by heat islands and not fitting the warming narrative so tweaking them up a couple degrees thinking its something the public won't notice, but it's not safe.

I complained several times about it when we had icing conditions several times this winter even taking pictures and sending to local forecast office and ASOS control center. We had a total ice out and the ASOS stayed above freezing 33-34°.
Public is being taken for a ride with this made up crock of crap. 
Title: Re: The Warming Climate
Post by: Mattk on May 29, 2018, 11:33:46 PM
Similar what the Bureau of Meteorology was caught out doing in Australia where they were putting a minimum lower temperature limit on stations where they conveniently assumed their equipment was under reporting so they simply put a 10 deg recordable minimum on the stations, when it's -10 DegC it recorded -10 DegC, when it was -12 DegC it was stripped back to -10 DegC, -13 DegC stripped back to -10 DegC oh how convenient. Not a big deal many of the pouters said, cold has nothing to do with the so called warming climate but what the sneaky buggers had done was attempt to increase the average daily temp and hence claim there was an increasing warming trend, one has to watch these sneaky buggers :)