Topic: Winter '16-'17

[Jstx]

Laredo is progged to hit 103°F at least. WTF?

You gotta be kidding me?? That's unequivocally NUTS!

Alas, poor Laredo (LRD) only reached 100°F yesterday, McAllen (MFE) in the Lower Valley beat it with a 101°F reading.
The whole area was about 2°F cooler (IMO) than the forecasts, there was a slight wind shift and the wind was just a little more N than W.
In these patterns a W/SW wind brings air down off the mountains to the West. That results in a drying out, and compressional heating, which can be like a blast furnace similar to Cali's Santa Ana winds, and I've been there for them too.
 
Today is very similar, except a medium front started moving through early, so the highs are going to be somewhat lower, only mid-upper 80's most places.
I'm now only at 83°F, humidity 17% and falling, with 8-15mph NW winds building (nearby stations all 85-6°F and windy N/NW). Only hit 89.6°F here yesterday, couldn't bust 90°F  . Haven't seen a cloud since Monday morning.

Red Flag brushfire warnings everywhere. There are some wildfires already going, could get very serious quickly as there is a lot of very dry veggie fuel. Things have greened right up with recent rains, but a lot of dead veggie is just waiting.

Y'all worrying about shoveling snow BFD, that dang frozen precip stuff can't burn your property to the ground. I've been up close to a lot of wildfires (and sugar cane burns, well blowouts), windblown flames 100' high+ are scary stuff.

Next couple of days will be cooler, high tomorrow only 68°F , then back to the mid 80's to Tuesday.


These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at the NCDC - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
000
ASUS64 KLUB 240040
RTPTX
TEXAS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CST THU FEB 23 2017

DATA THROUGH 6PM CST
HIGHEST LAST 18 HOURS. LOWEST LAST 18 HOURS...12AM TO 6PM CST
PRECIP LAST 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 6 PM CST

.BR LUB 0223 C DH18/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ
:
:ID   LOCATION                 HIGH  LOW    PCPN
:                                           24HR
:
:...NORTH TEXAS...
ABI  :Abilene ASOS          :   89 / 57 /   0.00
GKY  :Arlington             :   86 / 56 /   0.00
CRS  :Corsicana             :   86 / 55 /   0.00
DAL  :Dallas Love Field     :   88 / 54 /   0.00
DFW  :DFW Airport           :   88 / 55 /   0.00
DTO  :Denton                :   89 / 50 /   0.00
AFW  :Fort Worth Alliance   :   91 / 54 /   0.00
FTW  :Fort Worth Meacham    :   91 / 54 /   0.00
GGG  :Longview              :   84 / 53 /   0.00
LFK  :Lufkin                :   81 / 49 /   0.00
TKI  :McKinney              :   86 / 50 /   0.00
MWL  :Mineral Wells         :   94 / 46 /   0.00
PRX  :Paris                 :   84 / 54 /   0.00
TPL  :Temple                :   86 / 49 /   0.00
TRL  :Terrell               :   85 / 56 /   0.00
TYR  :Tyler                 :   85 / 56 /   0.00
ACT  :Waco                  :   84 / 50 /   0.00
SPS  :Wichita Falls         :   92 / 46 /   0.00
:...WEST TEXAS...
AMA  :Amarillo              :   78 / 42 /   0.00
HHF  :Canadian Airport      :   83 / 45 /   0.00
CDS  :Childress             :   87 / 49 /   0.00
DHT  :Dalhart               :   74 / 34 /   0.00
6R6  :Dryden                :   87 / 51 /   0.00
ELP  :El Paso               :   73 / 54 /   0.00
FST  :Fort Stockton         :   89 / 52 /   0.00
GDP  :Guadalupe Pass        :   69 / 53 /   0.00
LBB  :Lubbock               :   81 / 46 /   0.00
MRF  :Marfa                 :   79 / 31 /   0.00
MAF  :Midland               :   86 / 50 /   0.00
MUST2:Muleshoe              :   76 / 37 /   0.00
ODO  :Odessa                :   85 / 51 /   0.00
PEQ  :Pecos                 :   86 / 41 /   0.00
PRS  :Presidio              :   89 / 53 /   0.00
SJT  :San Angelo ASOS       :   92 / 45 /   0.00
INK  :Wink                  :   85 / 41 /   0.00
:...SOUTH TEXAS...
ALI  :Alice                 :   98 / 45 /   0.00
ATT  :Austin Mabry          :   90 / 55 /   0.00
AUS  :Austin Bergstrom      :   90 / 45 /   0.00
BPT  :Beaumont              :   79 / 56 /   0.00
BRO  :Brownsville           :   92 / 57 /   0.00
BMQ  :Burnet                :   89 / 50 /   0.00
CLL  :College Station       :   85 / 55 /   0.00
CXO  :Conroe                :   84 / 45 /   0.00
CRP  :Corpus Christi        :   87 / 58 /   0.00
NGP  :Navy Corpus           :   80 / 66 /   0.00
COT  :Cotulla               :  100 / 55 /   0.00
DRT  :Del Rio               :   93 / 50 /   0.00
GLS  :Galveston             :   75 / 63 /   0.00
HRL  :Harlingen             :   96 / 52 /   0.00
HDO  :Hondo                 :   93 / 45 /   0.00
HOU  :Houston Hobby         :   80 / 54 /   0.00
IAH  :Houston Bush          :   83 / 50 /   0.00
UTS  :Huntsville            :   84 / 58 /   0.00
JCT  :Junction ASOS         :   91 / 40 /   0.00
NQI  :Kingsville            :   98 / 49 /   0.00
LRD  :Laredo                :  100 / 62 /   0.00
MFE  :McAllen               :  101 / 54 /   0.00
BAZ  :New Braunfels         :   92 / 49 /   0.00
PSX  :Palacios              :   78 / 52 /   0.00
LVJ  :Pearland              :   81 / 55 /   0.00
RKP  :Rockport              :   81 / 65 /   0.00
SAT  :San Antonio           :   89 / 49 /   0.00
SSF  :San Antonio Stinson   :   93 / 49 /   0.00
DWH  :Tomball               :   85 / 51 /   0.00
VCT  :Victoria              :   85 / 53 /   0.00
:...OTHERS...
SHV  :Shreveport            :   83 / 53 /   0.00
TXK  :Texarkana             :   81 / 55 /   0.00
.END

TEXAS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES:
Highest...101 degrees at McAllen.
Lowest....31 degres at Marfa.

[WeatherHost]

Saw a mention of 107 at Falcon Dam, but still awaiting verification.

[Scalphunter]

That snow fall called fire insurance. The longer it on the ground makes for an shorter fire season.  May  thru September. Lately it been  starting too early  in April.

John

[Jstx]

Saw a mention of 107 at Falcon Dam, but still awaiting verification.

You're right, it did reach 107°F at Falcon Dam, link and excerpt below (appropriately designated "FART2"  ).
Desig reads like a buoy, maybe that's what it is (I use "PTAT2" in Port Aransas all the time).

Either the Lubbock office that does the daily extremes report missed it, or FART2 isn't an official site (the popup (link below) shows it as a "RAWS" site?). There are a couple of nearby CWOP and other sites too.

It's 96°F down there at Falcon right now, front just getting close.
I actually used to work there once in a while, wait until August-Sept for the real heat  .
Worked up the road in Zapata (KAPY) too; hot, dusty country.
And a lot more dangerous now, although 'en La Frontera', smuggling of one thing or another in either direction has always just been the norm. Part of everyday life for some (like pilots), as long as I can remember, hombres..
http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=TXZ248&local_place=Zapata County Airport TX&zoneid=CST&offset=21600

Falcon Dam (FART2):
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=9&scroll_zoom=true&center=26.5000,-98.20000&basemap=ESRI%20Imagery&boundaries=false,true,false&hazard=true&hazard_type=severe&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=tempcur&obs_popup=false&obs_density=2

23 Feb 7:11 pm   84   50   31   ESE   8G16        32   0   4   --   0.61            
23 Feb 6:11 pm   90   53   28   ESE   10G18        32   0   69   33%   0.61            23 Feb 5:11 pm   101   37   11   SE   10G20        32   0   357   70%   0.61            
23 Feb 4:11 pm   106   30   7   S   7G15        32   0   549   72%   0.61            
23 Feb 3:11 pm   107   31   7   S   8G17        32   0   690   72%   0.61            
23 Feb 2:11 pm   105   33   8   SSW   8G16        32   0   777   72%   0.61            
23 Feb 1:11 pm   102   36   10   S   10G19        32   0   797   71%   0.61            
23 Feb 12:11 pm   98   46   17   S   9G16        32   0   736   68%   0.61            
23 Feb 11:11 am   89   47   23   S   8G15        32   0   635   67%   0.61

[Scalphunter]

Heat wave here today 33 deg F.  Got 2  inches of snow over night  with more to come late tonight and tomorrow. Mostly in the Fairbanks area and north following the drainages namely the Yukon.  Our zone seem to be  just out of the range of most major systems working thru.  Snow total for the season stands at 41 inches. Only 20 inches of it is on the ground.



John

[Jáchym]

Very windy here today, second strongest wind gust since I began measuring. Only 1.5 km/h less than the absolute record for my station.

And!

It is colder here than in Alaska Not to mention feels like

[chief-david]

Stories like this all over the state. The difference between no snow and 15 inches of snow is 30 miles.

[chief-david]

This is the apology from the NWS in Minneapolis

Dear Minnesota and Wisconsin Residents,

 

We would like to take a couple minutes to address the latest winter storm to affect our area, and also provide our thoughts on the changes to the forecast the past couple days.

 

For over a week, the weather models we depend on have been forecasting a significant winter storm across a large portion of the Upper Midwest, including most of central/southern MN and western WI. Nearly all the weather models we use showed a 10 to 20 inch area of snow across the southern half of Minnesota and in western Wisconsin at one time or another. The precise location of this snow band was not certain, but our recognition of the incoming weather pattern and the weather models all pointed to a significant snowfall event for today. Even as late as Wednesday-Thursday, there were still weather models showing the heaviest snow band farther north with heavy snow impacting the Twin Cities metro area.

 

Our forecasts on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday depicted a middle-of-the-road solution in terms of location. By Thursday, it was apparent that the vast majority of the heavy snow would impact northern Iowa, far southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. By Thursday, we used radar, satellite and weather models with higher detail to see how the snow bands were taking shape, and ultimately where the storm was tracking. In the end, the heavy snow continues to fall 50-100 miles to the southeast of where earlier forecasts were calling for heavy snow. There is also a remarkably small transition zone from heavy snow to absolutely zero snowfall. These are quite difficult to pin down even hours before the snow begins.

 

We understand your frustration with the changing forecasts as this system evolved. We realize many people made or changed plans based on our forecasts. We sympathize with those of you out there who are disappointed with the initial forecasts that didn’t work out. We promise to evaluate our messaging and forecasts this week, and continually work to provide you with the best information we possibly can. Our thoughts are also with the folks of southern MN and western WI, who continue to see heavy snow today and are trying to dig out from the 8-14” of snow that are already on the ground. We would like to thank our local and national media that helped get the winter storm message out. We would like to thank all of the many local, state and federal partners we have worked with this week and continue to work with today. These are the folks making the tough decisions based on the forecasts -- and who are always striving to keep the people of Minnesota and Wisconsin safe.

 

Thank you to everyone else for your continued support and for following us. Good luck to those dealing with the storm today. We remain committed to providing the most accurate information we can for the rest of the winter and as we head into flooding/severe weather season this spring.

 

Sincerely,

The Forecast Team

National Weather Service Twin Cities

[ValentineWeather]

This is the apology from the NWS in Minneapolis

Dear Minnesota and Wisconsin Residents,

 

We would like to take a couple minutes to address the latest winter storm to affect our area, and also provide our thoughts on the changes to the forecast the past couple days.

 

For over a week, the weather models we depend on have been forecasting a significant winter storm across a large portion of the Upper Midwest, including most of central/southern MN and western WI. Nearly all the weather models we use showed a 10 to 20 inch area of snow across the southern half of Minnesota and in western Wisconsin at one time or another. The precise location of this snow band was not certain, but our recognition of the incoming weather pattern and the weather models all pointed to a significant snowfall event for today. Even as late as Wednesday-Thursday, there were still weather models showing the heaviest snow band farther north with heavy snow impacting the Twin Cities metro area.

 

Our forecasts on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday depicted a middle-of-the-road solution in terms of location. By Thursday, it was apparent that the vast majority of the heavy snow would impact northern Iowa, far southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. By Thursday, we used radar, satellite and weather models with higher detail to see how the snow bands were taking shape, and ultimately where the storm was tracking. In the end, the heavy snow continues to fall 50-100 miles to the southeast of where earlier forecasts were calling for heavy snow. There is also a remarkably small transition zone from heavy snow to absolutely zero snowfall. These are quite difficult to pin down even hours before the snow begins.

 

We understand your frustration with the changing forecasts as this system evolved. We realize many people made or changed plans based on our forecasts. We sympathize with those of you out there who are disappointed with the initial forecasts that didn’t work out. We promise to evaluate our messaging and forecasts this week, and continually work to provide you with the best information we possibly can. Our thoughts are also with the folks of southern MN and western WI, who continue to see heavy snow today and are trying to dig out from the 8-14” of snow that are already on the ground. We would like to thank our local and national media that helped get the winter storm message out. We would like to thank all of the many local, state and federal partners we have worked with this week and continue to work with today. These are the folks making the tough decisions based on the forecasts -- and who are always striving to keep the people of Minnesota and Wisconsin safe.

 

Thank you to everyone else for your continued support and for following us. Good luck to those dealing with the storm today. We remain committed to providing the most accurate information we can for the rest of the winter and as we head into flooding/severe weather season this spring.

 

Sincerely,

The Forecast Team

National Weather Service Twin Cities

That was nice of them to explain. I've seen models miss bad here also. North Platte issued a Blizzard Warning across southern 1/3 Nebraska 3 years ago and some of the area got only trace amounts, the storm just flat didn't materialize anywhere in the state. 

Now this storm NP NWS office was dead on for my area we had 26 hours of snow. The ECWFM was first model to see closed low developing with heaviest snow bands across Nebraska/SD border while the GFS was slower to agree and had a more open low which I'm sure was confusing many forecast offices.

[ValentineWeather]

It was -3F  this morning in Valentine Ne. Winters last hurrah..Maybe

[WeatherHost]

Cranking the wood stove up again for the night.

Haven't needed it for the last couple of weeks.

[Jáchym]

Wow!

Im amazed that they apologized like this... if we were to do the same here I guess we would have to employ extra stuff, whose job description would be "apologizer"

To a certain extent this is due to the general fact that predicting weather in Europe is much more difficult than in the U.S. We are a smaller and much more diverse continent in terms of terrain, shoreline, wind patterns, streams etc. The maximum you can predict is about 10 days, anything beyond that is 99% of cases just based on statistics, not a real forecast.


And just one funny story, which is actually real Sometimes the forecast is quite off from the reality and people complain. At our institute, we have several departments. Im in the "meteorology and climatology", then there is hydrology, air quality etc. And then there is a separate deparment "forecast service" - they are the ones who issue warnings, create forecasts, communicate with the media. However, people usually don´t notice there is this department. They go to our website, see "meteorology", they click contacts and contact the first person they see on the list. That list is sorted alphabetically. My last name begins with a B, so you can probably deduce who always gets these calls from angry people and has to stay calm and try to explain we do our best And of course I cannot say "it wasnt me, it was XYZ" - Im sure my colleagues upstairs would love me if every hour they got a call "hi, Jachym B. told me to call you because...."

[Scalphunter]

Was up to 33 yesterday which made it nice to remove snow away from the cabin. Cleared out my work/parking area. The big snow over night passed to the north. Got about an inch rather then the 4 to 7 inches they forecasted. Fairbanks got dumped on and to the north of the city also. Starting Tuesday it back to 30 below nothing for the rest of the week. Who said spring was conming.

[Jstx]

Was up to 33 yesterday which made it nice to remove snow away from the cabin. Cleared out my work/parking area. The big snow over night passed to the north. Got about an inch rather then the 4 to 7 inches they forecasted. Fairbanks got dumped on and to the north of the city also. Starting Tuesday it back to 30 below nothing for the rest of the week. Who said spring was conming.

Me, but more like summer, not spring, spring's soooo over. Next six days-- highest ~89, lowest ~48, a big cooldown from the last week  .:

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon
Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South southeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South southeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Monday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 87. South wind 6 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South southeast wind around 11 mph.
Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South southeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South southwest wind 8 to 16 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. North northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Friday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67.
Friday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 52.
Saturday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 70.

[Scalphunter]

000
WWAK83 PAFG 270428
SPSAFG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
728 PM AKST Sun Feb 26 2017

AKZ222-280300-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
728 PM AKST Sun Feb 26 2017

...FAIRBANKS SNOWLOAD...

Snowload measured by the National Weather Service near the
Fairbanks International Airport is currently 25 pounds per
square foot.

$$

[chief-david]

45 today. 50 next weekend. 
Still not ready to call it spring.

[ValentineWeather]

Cloudy high 38° on last day of winter, down to few inches snow. Next week big warm-up 60's in extended.

[Jáchym]

My favorite season is now officially over here.
December was rather warm, January exceptionally cold and February average. With regards to precipitation it was below average, but because it was very cold in January the snow didnt melt immediately and there was snow on ground for much longer than in the previous few winters.

[PaulMy]

The calendar says it is still winter but the conditions tell another story.  8 of the last 10 days temperature was in the teens Celsius with a high of 18.9°C, and this evening our second thunderstorm.
Alerts for: London - Middlesex Statements 9:01 PM EST Tuesday 28 February 2017
 Special weather statement in effect for:
 

• London - Parkhill - Eastern Middlesex County
• Strathroy - Komoka - Western Middlesex County

Rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 mm likely tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move across Southwestern Ontario from the US Midwest tonight. Most areas will receive 15 to 25 mm of rain, with locally higher rainfall amounts possible over locales that receive a thunderstorm or two.

Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe. However some will contain heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Small hail and gusty winds are also possible.

In the wake of tonight's showers and thunderstorms Some additional rainfall is also possible on Wednesday.


Paul

[chief-david]

At least one person was killed when a tornado spawned by a late-winter storm system swept through the central Illinois city of Ottawa.​

[PaulMy]

WXSpots observer reports:
Tornado Report: SAR efforts ongoing. Currently 3 confirmed fatalities
Perry County, MO

Earlier observer report:
Tornado Report: Naplate/Ottowa MABAS 25 - ALL available fire units respond

Looks like we're in for another period of thunderstorm here as that system moves our way.

Paul.

[Scalphunter]

was an clear cold day today  and tonight promises of an real cool down  with an loudless sky. at -9 and heading towards  -20 plus.  by Thursday we will be  at night  in the -30's.


John

[WeatherHost]

WXSpots observer reports:
Tornado Report: SAR efforts ongoing. Currently 3 confirmed fatalities
Perry County, MO

New TOR Warning for Perry County, MO

Perry MO-

357 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CST FOR

SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY...

   

At 357 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado

was located near Biehle, or near Perryville, moving east at 65 mph.

It was crossing Interstate 55 at this time.

[Scalphunter]

Hit  minus 35  this morning with dew point of  minus 40. looks like this  cold air going to be around for an bit coming  down from  Canadian high artic.  maybe can send it down to valentine seeing how the air mass tends to slide that way  when an omega blocker forms here.  Another  CAVU day here in the interior. Day getting longer and the sun  just about coming up due east. This morning had green and red aurora hanging in the pre dawn sky.


John

[sundevil01010101]

Hit  minus 35  this morning with dew point of  minus 40. looks like this  cold air going to be around for an bit coming  down from  Canadian high artic.  maybe can send it down to valentine seeing how the air mass tends to slide that way  when an omega blocker forms here.  Another  CAVU day here in the interior. Day getting longer and the sun  just about coming up due east. This morning had green and red aurora hanging in the pre dawn sky.


John

I see by your WU stamp it's a balmy 4.1 now...

No wonder so many folks from your part of the country make down my way to retire...

I see a lot more Alaska plates down here than you'd think and the first thing I always wonder is if the car has a/c

Also, a place I've always wanted to visit, that's also on the list.