Topic: First Tropical Depression of the 2009 season

[SoMDWx]

Well, we just got our first TD of the season for the Atlantic.... will be interesting to see how the rest of the year unfolds....


jim

[lddaly]

If it is anything like this years tornado season, it will be a dud. We will see... 

[mackbig]

Amazing what a few hours does....here is the special tropical weather outlook from 8am...   I guess in 4 hours, "some potential" and 30% became 98% considering its supposed to be a TS within 12 hours.

Andrew


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.  THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ALONG THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM.  THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN
ANY LAND AREAS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

[WeatherHost]

Is this what we can look forward to from the NHC this year?

Last night they made a statement that it was not expected to develop and had stopped issuing advisories.  

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272348
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA IS
DECREASING.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE COAST AROUND 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT OR SO.  CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING COOLER
OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS SYSTEM.  SEE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

Then, this morning, they make this statement;

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281156
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.  THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ALONG THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM.  THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN
ANY LAND AREAS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON.  

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

Then, 3 hours later:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

[SoMDWx]

I think their weather modeling computer has a virus! It's running slooooooooowwwwwwwwwwww...

Jim

[weatherman]

well now there is no more anything now but its pretty much kicked off 2009 hurricane season.